The prospect of soybean processing enterprises with overall loss is dim

Introduction: at present, China's domestic soybean processing enterprises are on the verge of bankruptcy It is reported that the cost of imported soybeans arriving at Hong Kong in the early stage is close to or even more than 4000 yuan / ton, which is equivalent to that the production enterprises have purchased imported soybeans in the highest price range of international soybeans Based on this cost of raw materials, processing enterprises lose up to 1000 yuan / ton for each ton of imported soybeans processed Many enterprises with difficult capital turnover are even forced to default because they are unable to pay for soybeans, and the default fee for each ship of soybeans sold back is as high as 1 million US dollars Therefore, enterprises have to consider taking measures to solve this problem So, how is the loss of domestic soybean processing enterprises formed, how to avoid it in the future? How to improve the pricing mechanism of soybean import? What is the prospect of soybean industry in China? Domestic soybean processing enterprises should also actively seek answers First, the reason for the loss of soybean processing enterprises is that the bosses of the oil press described the market situation in 2004 as "grim" In April and may this year, the international soybean price dropped from 1064 cents / bushel, and fell to 800 cents / bushel in two months, down nearly 25% It is also during this period that news about domestic soybean processing enterprises and feed production enterprises are constantly coming out because of high raw material prices and serious business losses As we all know, the decline of raw material price means the decrease of production cost and the relative increase of production profit But why does the price drop of raw soybean cause the loss of domestic soybean processing enterprises? Talking about the continuous operation of oil mills The reason for the seven-month loss is that, according to the state-owned and private enterprises, first, China has a relative surplus of squeezing power, and the soybean processing capacity is twice of the actual demand; second, the imported soybean is over capacity, and the port has a serious inventory backlog, and the storage capacity is very tight Even if there is no new soybean arrival in July August, these soybeans can maintain sufficient supply until September; third, the price rise of downstream products is significantly slower than that of the real demand The rising speed of upstream raw material prices driven by China's demand and the depreciation of the US dollar; the fourth is the shortage of funds caused by the above factors, and the enterprises are busy with cash out and loss sales, among which foreign-funded and joint-venture enterprises take the advantage of capital to actively reduce prices As a result, if the situation goes on like this, if the capital chain breaks, the biggest loser must be the private enterprises with less financial resources But market analysts also believe that, in addition to the above objective reasons, state-owned and private enterprises have their own problems in operation, among which, in addition to the pricing mode of imported soybeans and the sharp drop of soybean meal and soybean oil prices of soybean products in the same period, domestic soybean processing enterprises have not done well in hedging transactions through the domestic and foreign futures markets That's the main reason Compared with foreign enterprises, the market risk awareness is not strong In 2003, the oil factory once made a profit of 1000 yuan per ton, which does not mean that it will be the same in 2004 In spot trade, if foreign enterprises do not carry out risk management for each transaction, they are considered to be speculating or gambling II If the oil extraction industry adopts such measures, it will After the northern hemisphere soybean harvest last year, the CBOT soybean futures price once operated in the range of 750 cents / bushel to 800 cents / bushel, and the domestic soybean price in the range of 3150 yuan / ton to 3350 yuan / ton for more than two months At that time, soybean processing enterprises had been able to lock in the production cost and avoid the operation risk caused by the rising soybean price in the future by buying forward soybean futures contracts in the futures market according to the production plan of the next year From the end of last year to April this year, the domestic soybean futures price rose from 3200 to 4100 following the CBOT soybean market The increase rate is basically the same as that of CBOT soybean market It is also possible for domestic soybean manufacturers to make up for the losses of the spot market with the profits of the futures market through hedging transactions in the domestic and foreign futures markets, so as to realize their own production plans and profits Objective, to avoid the occurrence of the above-mentioned large losses Further back, even if the production enterprises did not carry out the corresponding hedging operation at that time, when the international and domestic soybean futures price rose to a historical high, the producers and importers can also determine the arrival time of imported soybeans and the price risk they are facing according to the signed soybean purchase contract and shipping schedule If the corresponding soybean futures can be sold in the domestic futures market for hedging according to the contract time and quantity, these enterprises can also make profits from the recent soybean futures price drop of nearly 1000 yuan per ton, so as to make up for the loss caused by the high price purchase of imported soybean and reduce the actual production cost Further imagine that if a standardized soybean processing enterprise not only locked its own production cost through the hedging transaction in the soybean futures market, but also locked its own operating profit through the hedging transaction in the soybean meal futures market, it will not lose money in this big rise and fall of soybean, but will get double returns It can be seen that "the purchase of imported soybeans at a price close to or more than 4000 yuan / ton" is not an isolated phenomenon, nor is it the inevitable cause of large losses of domestic soybean processing enterprises Domestic soybean production enterprises have not established a perfect risk control mechanism, have not fully realized the important role of hedging transaction in the production and operation of enterprises, or have participated in hedging transaction, but the speculation in the name of false hedging may be the main reason for large losses of soybean processing enterprises at present Soybean processing enterprises should realize that the essence of hedging transaction is to lock cost and profit rather than pursue huge profit, draw lessons from the past, adjust ideas in time according to their own situation, and establish a risk barrier for future production and operation through corresponding hedging transaction, so as to minimize the impact of price fluctuation of raw materials or finished products on production and operation activities Do not think back to the role of hedging after a large loss 3 The development of soybean industry is inseparable from the futures market From the perspective of the development process of China's soybean industry, soybean is the first to cancel the protection policy, the highest degree of marketization, and the most impacted variety in the world It should be said that soybean entered the WTO as early as 1996 After more than six years of development, China's soybean market is fully integrated with the international market Soybean production has maintained steady development under the impact of the international market The oil extraction industry has developed into one of the fastest growing, most risk management conscious and most competitive industries in the agricultural product processing industry, among which the soybean futures market has played an irreplaceable positive role 1 Soybean futures market provides scientific price signals for soybean production and circulation, and reasonably guides soybean planting in the process of soybean marketization and internationalization The risks faced by production and operation enterprises are also increasing As an increasingly mature and effective grain futures market, Dalian soybean futures market plays an irreplaceable role in guiding soybean production and planting Under the guidance of futures market price, in recent years, compared with other large grain varieties such as corn, soybean production has been relatively stable in terms of yield and price It can be seen from the previous data that the trend of soybean futures price and spot price is basically the same, futures price is often ahead of spot price for a period of time, and on the delivery date, futures price naturally returns to spot price This fully reflects that in the reality of the great fluctuation of soybean spot price in China, the trend of soybean futures price of GSE can still keep close contact with spot price, and the price signal provided by GSE is reasonable and effective Heilongjiang Agricultural Reclamation group has solved the passive adjustment state in the production and planting process through scientific arrangement of production and planting by using the advance and authority of futures price for many years, and achieved good results More than 120 farms under Heilongjiang Agricultural Reclamation group are equipped with quotation terminals of Dashang They can know the soybean futures price of Dashang at any time When arranging the annual soybean planting area, the soybean futures price of Dashang is one of the most important decision indicators From 1995 to 2001, although the spot market price of soybean changed greatly due to the influence of market supply and demand, but under the guidance of the futures market price, the soybean output of Heilongjiang Province has always been relatively stable In 2000, for example, corn, wheat and rice prices continued to decline, while soybean futures prices were relatively high The farm reduced the planting proportion of other varieties, and increased the soybean planting area from 6.8 million mu to 12 million mu At the same time, the principle of high quality and good price in the futures market also guides the improvement of soybean quality After Heilongjiang Agricultural Reclamation participated in the futures market, soybean production has undergone fundamental changes 2 Soybean futures market provides an ideal hedging tool for related soybean processing enterprises Dalian soybean futures market provides an effective hedging tool for soybean related spot enterprises With the continuous and steady development of the market, more and more soybean related enterprises, such as oil, feed, etc., rely on their own unique industry advantages, through various forms, widely participate in the soybean futures market, avoid the price risk of soybean, and improve enterprise management Taking a long-term soybean related products company as an example, we have found out an effective way to promote enterprise operation by using futures market First, the company buys soybeans through the futures market all year round It has changed the traditional management mode of centralized procurement and annual processing, greatly reduced the inventory, improved the speed of capital turnover, and ensured the quality of soybean raw materials and the safety of procurement funds Secondly, using the futures market to hedge, avoiding the risk of price change and locking in the normal profits In 2002, the company was worried about the increase of purchase cost caused by the price rise They chose the opportunity to buy 5000 tons of soybean futures contract Three months later, the price rose as expected They balanced multiple orders in the futures market to make up for the loss of purchase in the spot market Through purchasing spot and avoiding risks in Dalian soybean futures market, the company attaches great importance to the research on the change of soybean futures price, so that the enterprise can make timely response to the market change, and adjust the operation strategy according to the future market supply and demand We have achieved good economic benefits At present, many domestic large-scale oil processing enterprises and feed enterprises have become members of the big business, using the soybean futures market to reduce the production and operation costs of enterprises and improve the efficiency of capital use At the same time, many large grain import and export enterprises, such as COFCO import and Export Corporation, China feed import and Export Corporation, and Zhonggu group, also participate in soybean futures hedging transactions With spot as the basis, futures arbitrage, not only avoids price risk, but also enhances the survival and development ability of enterprises It can be said that Dalian soybean futures market has become the right assistant in the operation of domestic soybean related enterprises 3 The soybean futures market provides an effective risk for soybean order agriculture The development of order agriculture can promote the industrialization of grain management and improve the resistance of grain industry to nature