The rebound of domestic market after the listing of Xindou

Introduction: after the launch of new beans in October this year, the prices of domestic soybean, soybean meal and soybean oil have been hovering at a low level The market trend is very weak, and there is still no sign of rebound The author believes that the main reasons for this situation are as follows: the domestic market in the later period gestates a small rebound opportunity 1 The import soybean is overstocked This year, there is a large backlog of imported soybeans in China's ports According to market research and information provided by relevant websites, there is a backlog of 1.2 million tons of soybeans in the ports at present, which is twice that of the same period in 2000 In addition, according to the latest customs statistical report, in October 2001, China imported 900000 tons of soybeans, including 340000 tons from Qingdao Customs and 100000 tons from Tianjin Customs, which accounted for a high proportion of the two ports In addition to Changzhou soybean market in the south, this area is an important distribution center of soybean in the northeast The heavy backlog of imported soybean in this area has a great impact on domestic soybean 2 Excess production of soybean meal At present, domestic soybean meal production is in a serious state of excess, especially the production capacity of some joint ventures is high, which has a strong impact on the domestic soybean meal market According to relevant information, only a foreign company's joint-venture oil processing enterprise in China has a daily soybean processing capacity of 18000 tons, and can produce 14400 tons of soybean meal, which has a great impact on the domestic market In addition, the soybean processing cost of the joint venture is relatively low, with the processing cost of 80 yuan / ton, the soybean oil price of 4450 yuan / ton, the imported soybean cost of 2000 yuan / ton, and the cost price of soybean meal is 1620 yuan / ton Therefore, according to the cost of imported soybeans in recent period, we can fully understand why the soybean meal price in the domestic market is at the same level in the north and south, and the price is not high This result makes the processing capacity of some areas (Shandong, Hebei) more surplus, the problem of soybean meal more prominent, and the ability to digest soybean more weakened 3 Restriction of domestic transportation conditions Due to the limitation of domestic transportation conditions, some large joint-venture oil plants have encountered some difficulties in adopting domestic soybeans, which are limited to some extent At present, the transportation capacity of Northeast China and the ability of merchants to organize the source of goods are limited, so it is difficult to meet the raw material demand of some joint ventures for processing 3000 tons of soybeans per day Therefore, even if the price of domestic soybeans is competitive, it is difficult for some large joint-venture oil plants to purchase domestic soybeans for processing 4 There is no obvious gap in domestic soybean oil supply According to customs statistics, this year's soybean import is faster than 3.16 million tons in the same period last year, palm oil import is faster than 160000 tons in the same period last year, rapeseed import is lower than 2.56 million tons in the same period last year, soybean oil import is lower than 230000 tons in the same period last year, and rapeseed oil import is lower than 22000 tons in the same period last year Considering the import channels of various oils and oilseeds, by the end of October this year, China's oil import volume had dropped 561000 tons compared with the same period last year However, this year, the increase of domestic rapeseed production is nearly 600000 tons, peanut production is 400000 tons In addition, the increase of cottonseed production is large, and the substitution of soybean oil and cottonseed oil is strong Therefore, in the period when autumn oil is just listed in the market, there will not be a large shortage of domestic oil supply 5 The impact of China's accession to the WTO The impact of China's accession to the WTO on the domestic oil industry is the consensus of many people However, some people simply understand the impact as a price drop, especially farmers, with a strong shipping mentality In the face of the 5.8 million tons of oil import quota in 2002, there was a panic, which exacerbated the current price drop 6 The operating rate of small oil processing workshops is generally high The period after the autumn oilseeds are listed on the market has always been the period with the highest operating rate of small oil processing workshops in China Small oil mills in rural areas have made great efforts in peanut and cottonseed pressing They have adopted flexible operation methods such as exchange of raw materials, which has a certain impact on the oil market supply Looking at the above issues calmly, considering the possible changes in the domestic market in the future, the author believes that the market breeds some opportunities: 1 Although the above analysis points out that there is no obvious gap in the supply of domestic soybean oil, we must note that the problem of domestic oil supply surplus is not very serious due to the absolute decline of domestic oil import compared with the same period last year In the period before and after the Spring Festival, after the pressure of centralized listing of autumn oil is relieved, individual demand moves The Spring Festival has always been the peak season of oil consumption in China In addition, with the pressure of centralized marketing of autumn oil slowing down, the operating rate of small oil processing workshops will gradually decline, and the oil source in the market will also decrease 2 The import of rapeseed is also a hot issue we are concerned about As mentioned in the above analysis article, due to the high price of rapeseed in the international market, the import volume of rapeseed in China this year has declined significantly, with a total volume of 2.56 million tons, equivalent to 1.04 million tons of oil supply, which is not a small number in the domestic oil market, but also a real positive stimulus for the domestic market However, we must admit that the impact of "accession to WTO" is self-evident Due to the realization of accession to WTO, China's oil quota in 2002 was 5.8 million tons However, there is still a time issue in the issue and use of quotas, and the market changes in the international market are also very uncertain This kind of situation just reminds the insiders to pay attention that even if the domestic market appears in the later period, the market fluctuation range will not be too large and the duration will not be too long 3 The problem of spring transportation will make the shortage of soybean supply more prominent After two months of consumption in November and December (the problem of domestic soybean transportation began to appear in November), the domestic soybean stock of small and medium-sized oil plants will decline 12 In January, after the decline of imported soybeans, part of the demand will turn to the port backlog, which will bring opportunities to the consumption of port soybeans, and the corresponding domestic market will also have a small fluctuation The transportation bottleneck that restricts the transportation of soybean in Northeast China may be the cause of the fluctuation of domestic market As a result, there will be a short-term price difference between Northeast China and the mainland due to the transportation capacity problem 4 The introduction of the detailed rules for the implementation of the regulations on genetically modified organisms is a good stimulus for the domestic market in a short time According to the recent understanding of policy trend, the country has realized its "accession to WTO" and faced with relatively less external environmental pressure, so the space for policy regulation is relatively large According to the information we have obtained from the relevant authorities, the detailed rules and regulations on genetically modified management will formulate some restrictive measures on the link and technology of soybean import, which will be a favorable stimulus to the domestic market At present, this information is also an important chip that puzzles the domestic futures market, reflecting people's view on the market In addition, to take a step back, even if the detailed rules for the implementation of the GM regulations are very conducive to the import of soybeans, it will take a certain time for importers to find ships and buy goods, which will also leave a small gap in the domestic market 5 The recent price changes in the U.S market make the signing cost of U.S soybeans higher, and there is still a certain gap between the psychological price of the importers According to the current market inference, the price of secondary soybean oil is 4500 yuan / ton, and the quality advantage of imported soybean (due to high oil content) is about 90 yuan / ton The arrival price of 1850 yuan / ton of domestic soybeans (some oil plants in Hebei and Shandong) and the CIF price of 200 US dollars / ton of imported soybeans at the port do not have strong market competitiveness According to the current market dynamics, the psychological price of the importer's buying in the outer market is 420 US / bushel, which is still a certain distance from the current market It will take time and conditions to realize this possibility (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: