The resistance above Shanghai aluminum is obvious, short-term or maintain weak oscillation

From the plate point of view, the capital is in the inflow trend, the main short increase is more, the domestic supply side Guangxi and Sichuan electrolytic aluminum production capacity continues to slowly resume production, while Shanxi Henan production capacity slightly declined, Inner Mongolia Gansu area of the new production capacity will be gradually released in the future, Guizhou aluminum plant current power restrictions and production shutdown further intensified, is expected to reach more than 900,000 tons
.
On the demand side, the operating conditions of downstream processing enterprises continued to decline
month-on-month.
In terms of inventory, domestic social stocks have accumulated significantly, and aluminum inventories have declined
.

At present, due to the weak supply and demand affected by the off-season and the national epidemic, traders have dumped their goods after the macro market has risen, and aluminum prices have rushed back down as scheduled, but the news of the intensification of production cuts in Guizhou has stimulated the market to rebound, and it is recommended to leave the market short, and the medium and long-term range shock will continue
.
It is necessary to pay attention to the further development of events such as power cuts and epidemics, with the pressure level above the main contract being 20,000 and the lower support level being 17,000
.

In terms of supply and demand, near the end of the year, coupled with the impact of the peak of epidemic infection, the operating rate of downstream enterprises has declined significantly, aluminum ingots and aluminum rods have weakened out of the warehouse, and aluminum prices are difficult to rise under weak demand
.
In addition, as coal prices fall, the cost support for captive power plants continues to decline
.

In terms of inventory, with the arrival of the double festival, the seasonal accumulation cycle is also coming as scheduled, the problem of tight inventory will be effectively alleviated, and the inventory support is loosened.

Looking forward to the future market, the resistance above the aluminum price is obvious, and the short-term or maintain a weak shock operation, but the possibility of continuing to fall in the short term is relatively low
with further production reduction in Guizhou and aluminum prices have fallen below the current industry average cost.
In the long run, the possibility of fundamental changes in the direction of strong supply and weak demand is strong, and there is still room for lower costs, so the long-term view is maintained on the bearish side
.