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    Home > Coatings News > Paints and Coatings Market > The rise of new first-tier cities, China's urban landscape ushered in changes!

    The rise of new first-tier cities, China's urban landscape ushered in changes!

    • Last Update: 2021-03-29
    • Source: Internet
    • Author: User
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    Ren Zeping, chief economist of the Evergrande Research Institute, said a classic sentence about housing prices in central cities in China: “Look at policies in the short-term, land in the medium-term, and population in the long-term.
    ”Many people have also realized that population not only affects a city’s Housing prices will also affect the development pattern of a city.
    On December 9, Beijing Population and Social Development Research Center and Social Science Literature Press jointly released the "Beijing Population Blue Book "Beijing Population Situation Analysis Report (2018)".
    The latest research results on the status and trends of population development in Beijing were announced.
    The report shows that in 2017, the permanent population of Beijing was 21.
    707 million, a decrease of 22,000 from the end of the previous year.
    Among them, the permanent migrant population was 7.
    943 million, a decrease of 132,000 compared with last year.
    The registered population of the city was 13.
    592 million, compared with the end of the previous year.
    A reduction of 37,000 people was a 3% decrease.
    Not only is Beijing, Shanghai Statistics deputy director of the Bureau of the Department of Tang Hao reports that, as of the end of 2017 Shanghai, the city's resident population of 2418.
    33 million, Shanghai foreign resident population of 972.
    69 million, 7.
    52 million decrease over the previous year; the overall population decreased 13,700 over the previous year people.
       Both Beijing and Shanghai have experienced negative growth in the migrant population in the two super-first-class cities, which reminds people: new trends are taking shape, and China's urban structure is also undergoing changes.
    01 01    For the first time since 1997, the permanent population of Beijing and Shanghai has decreased.
    What are the reasons behind it?    For the first time since 1997, the permanent population of Beijing and Shanghai has decreased.
    What are the reasons behind it?    First, it is inseparable from policy control of the scale of these first-tier megacities.
       As early as March 2014, the central government portal published the "National New Urbanization Plan (2014-2020)".
    The document proposes that “mega cities should appropriately evacuate economic functions and other functions, and accelerate the development of small and medium-sized cities as the main direction of optimizing the size and structure of cities and towns.
    ”      After that, on September 27, 2017, the State Council proposed to strictly control the size of the city in its reply to the "Beijing City Master Plan (2016-2035)".
    By 2020, the permanent population will be controlled within 23 million, and it will remain at this level for a long time after 2020.
       The Shanghai Municipal Government officially released the "Shanghai City Master Plan (2017-2035)" on January 4 this year, proposing to build Shanghai into an aspiring city of innovation, culture and ecology.
    The plan also requires strict control of the population size and alleviation of the contradiction between rapid population growth and tight resource and environmental constraints.
    By 2035, the permanent resident population will be controlled at around 25 million, as a long-term regulatory target.
       The second is affected by the adjustment of the industrial structure.
       Beginning in 2016, Beijing and Shanghai have intensively adjusted the industrial structure to gradually move the wholesale market and labor-intensive industries in the urban area.
    At the same time, they have vigorously cleaned up group rental housing.
    Under the pressure of employment and rent, a large part of the migrant employment population chooses Active outflow.
       The third comes from the pressure of high housing prices and high rents.
       Take Beijing as an example.
    According to the data from the Research Institute of My Family Group, in July this year, the average monthly rent of housing rental in Beijing was 4902 yuan per set, a month-on-month increase of 2.
    9% compared to June, and the average rent of general rent increased by 6.
    2% month-on-month.
    , The average rent of apartments rose 1.
    4% month-on-month.
       Fourth, the requirements of sustainable development.
    The influx of a large number of people is conducive to the rapid economic development, but the pressure on the city is increasing.
    The control of the population scale in Beijing and Shanghai can alleviate the pressure on the city and achieve balanced development of the region.
       Fifth, the change of population policy, Beijing and Shanghai occupy a pivotal position in the country, which is no longer comparable to other cities.
    Therefore, these two major cities do not need to worry about the problem of population outflow, but only need to care about how to retain highly educated and highly skilled talents.
       The negative population growth is the inevitable result of many reasons.
    For Beijing and Shanghai, controlling the population and city scale is a long-term problem for large cities like Beijing and Shanghai.
    02 02    There are also several types of cities that are quietly undergoing changes, but the situation is different from that of Beijing and Shanghai.
          There are also several types of cities that are quietly undergoing changes, but the situation is different from that of Beijing and Shanghai.
       1.
    Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen are both first-tier cities, but different from Beijing and Shanghai-"Beijing and Shanghai go to the left, Guangzhou and Shenzhen go to the right".
       Beijing and Shanghai use a variety of means to limit the continued growth of the population size, but Guangshen is adopting various favorable policies to attract the population to enter.
    The reason is that Guangshen is different from Beijing and Shanghai, with stronger market attributes, and directly faces the development of second-tier cities.
    competition.
       According to the "2017 First Quarter China Cities Research Report": Guangdong Province is still attracting large-scale population inflows across the country, and Shenzhen and Guangzhou rank first and third respectively in terms of talent attraction.
       2.
    Some second-tier cities have successfully become new first-tier cities.
       Faced with the outflow of population in first-tier cities, second-tier cities have seized the opportunity to introduce preferential policies to attract talents to settle down.
    In addition to preferential policies, efforts are also made to promote the development of the city's economy.
       Xi'an has vigorously implemented the new policy of liberalizing household registration and attracting talents.
    The number of people who settle in Xi'an has increased rapidly.
    This year, hundreds of thousands of new settlers have been added.
    According to data released by Xi'an media, as of November 4, 2018, Xi'an had a total of 665,551 immigrants, of which 66% were settled with academic qualifications and talent introduction.
    At present, including Xixian New District, the registered population of Xi'an has reached 9,816,800.
       Shenzhen has implemented subsidies and other systems for college graduates, attracting many college students.
    In 2017, the permanent population increased by more than 500,000, and the increase in permanent population ranked first in the country.
       Niu Fengrui, vice president of the Chinese Society of Urban Economics, believes that cities such as Xi'an, Zhengzhou, Hangzhou, and Qingdao are rapidly accumulating populations, and it is only a matter of time before the permanent population exceeds 10 million.
       3.
    On the whole, third- and fourth-tier cities are still facing population loss.
       According to the growth rate of permanent residents, the population growth rate of third- and fourth-tier cities and below has been around 0.
    3%, which is lower than the national average population growth rate of 0.
    5%, and far lower than the population growth rate of first-tier cities and second-tier cities.
    This shows that the population is still pouring into first- and second-tier cities from the third and fourth lines.
       However, a few third- and fourth-tier cities have experienced population inflows.
    The first reason is that some third- and fourth-tier cities are affected by the spillover effect of surrounding first- and second-tier cities, causing population inflows.
    For example, the growth rate of permanent residents in Kunshan has been maintained at more than 1%.
    It even reached 4.
    6% in 2016.
    The other part is because of the aging of migrant workers who choose to return to their hometowns for the elderly, such as Guangyuan, Xinyang and Yongzhou.
       Urban population changes will advance over time, showing more obvious changes.
    Some second-tier cities will experience rapid development under the demographic dividend, and this will be the biggest change afterwards.
    03 03 The    rising trend of new first-tier cities has become unstoppable, and the real estate market is also facing good development prospects.
       The rising trend of new first-tier cities has become unstoppable, and their real estate market is also welcoming good development prospects.
       With the continuous advancement of urbanization, first-tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai are unable to accommodate a large number of people due to population restrictions, and the population will inevitably gather in cities.
    Therefore, the population of new first-tier cities will continue to increase, and the population of the future is very likely Close to the first-tier cities, the new first-tier real estate market will definitely be more prosperous with the support of a sufficient population.
       From 2017 to 2018, housing prices in the new first-tier cities have risen.
    Chengdu, Xi'an, and Hangzhou saw the largest increase in the three popular cities.
       Of course, the rise in housing prices depends not only on the number of people, but also on the demographic structure.
       Young people are the main buyers of houses.
    The more such people, the stronger the purchasing power of the city and the strong demand for the real estate market.
    Therefore, the purchasing power of new first-tier cities such as Xi'an, Hangzhou, Wuhan, and Qingdao will continue to increase in the future, and there is no shortage of real estate markets.
       In addition, from the perspective of national development plans, many new first-tier cities are core cities in the city circle.
    In the future, favorable policies will be supported and the development speed will accelerate.
    This is definitely a development for real estate in new first-tier cities.
    opportunity.
          The last thing I want to say is that even if the real estate market in the new first-tier cities has a good development prospect in the future, the background of housing non-speculation has been repeatedly ordered and clearly defined, so the possibility of future housing prices rising sharply is very small.
    Buying a house must be based on your actual needs.
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