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Crude oil pulled back sharply last week, but rubber pullback was smaller and choppy
.
The market is still calm, unchanged rubber shock strong trend
.
When RU2109 is below 13000, speculative funds are happy to buy
low.
If the rally is too fast, investors may be a little
more cautious.
The sales peak of China VI standard is about to pass, and it is expected that the demand for heavy-duty truck tires will weaken
slightly in the future.
After June, with the start of the peak season for rubber supply in Thailand, it is expected that the pressure on overseas raw material supply will increase
.
On the supply side, Thailand announced at 16:00 p.
m.
on July 9 that the emergency law would be renewed for two months, from August 1 to September 30
.
Announced the adjustment of the epidemic prevention level of 77 provinces in Thailand, and 10 provinces
in the highest strict control area (deep red area).
The development of the epidemic has escalated, and we continue to pay attention to the progress of the epidemic in the main production areas and beware of supply risks
in the production areas.
The rise in natural rubber period and spot prices has driven the price of raw materials in major producing areas at home and abroad, and raw materials are still in a stable production cycle, and the overall increase is relatively small
.
The People's Bank of China lowered the RRR, and the epidemic prevention and control level of many major natural rubber producing areas in Thailand was raised to the red highest control area, and the flow of personnel will be strictly restricted, and there is a possibility
that the price of supporting rubber will rise again.
However, the rise of upstream raw materials is not smooth, downstream demand continues to be low, procurement enthusiasm is not strong, spot and rise are weak, and there is no actual improvement
in fundamentals.
At present, both sides of the long and short positions near the point are more cautious, and it is expected to stabilize and fluctuate
.
At present, the fundamentals of natural rubber show obvious characteristics
of weak supply and demand.
Specifically, the price of raw materials on the supply side has fallen since the end of May, and as of now, this year's phenology is relatively normal, and the probability of gradual release of supply in the second half of the year is relatively large
.
On the whole, rubber fundamentals are still weak, so bears still have the motivation
to continue to suppress after the spread widens.
However, from the absolute price of natural rubber, the current price is still in a low valuation position, and the downward space is limited, so the short-term rubber price chasing needs to be viewed with caution
.
