The rubber rebound probability is relatively large, showing a volatile upward pattern

Affected by the Thai policy, the external futures of Tianjiao on the 28th were mixed, while the Shanghai rubber and domestic spot rubber market was reflected on the 29th: the Shanghai rubber 05 contract closed up 270 points on the same day, closing at 14405 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation of domestic spot full latex rubber was about 13675 yuan / ton, up 1.
67% from the 28th, nearly 250 yuan / ton
.
According to the news, the Vietnamese production area and the northeastern Thailand production area stopped cutting at the end of January and early February, and the southern Thailand is expected to stop cutting at the end of February; At present, the epidemic situation has eased, and the amount of rubber production is relatively abundant
.

In terms of inventory, as of January 31, 2021, the stock of natural rubber in the previous period was 174606 tons, and the warehouse receipt was 167,040 tons, a decrease of 58 tons and an increase of 290 tons, respectively; The inventory of No.
20 rubber was 56,568 tons, and the warehouse receipt was 55,118 tons, an increase of 2,650 tons and 3,286 tons respectively; In the previous period, the inventory of natural rubber decreased and the warehouse receipt increased, and the inventory of No.
20 rubber and warehouse receipt increased
.

Downstream demand, first of all, affected by environmental protection production restrictions, the new crown pneumonia epidemic at home and abroad, and the approaching Spring Festival holiday, the operating load of tire factories continued to decline
.
The data shows that the current operating rate of all-steel tire sample manufacturers is 66.
55%, down 3.
32% month-on-month and up 54.
49% year-on-year; The operating rate of semi-steel tire sample manufacturers was 64.
09%, down 3.
10% month-on-month and up 53.
91%
year-on-year.
Due to the increasingly light demand and the restrictions of logistics and distribution, more factories will enter the holiday mode after 23 hours; However, due to epidemic prevention and control, many places advocate celebrating the New Year in place, and it is not ruled out that some enterprises respond to the call to provide holiday assistance to employees, or some production lines start production
.
Secondly, Chinese tire companies are under great pressure from the "double reverse" policy of Europe and the United States, and the United States recently released the results of the review of the 5-year double reverse of passenger car tires imported from China - the United States will continue to impose double anti-tax
on Chinese passenger car tires.
Despite the impact of the "double-reverse" policy and the impact of the epidemic this year, China's tire exports still maintained strong growth
.

Domestic epidemic prevention and control needs, many places advocate the local New Year, the automobile sales market will not appear as in previous years, coupled with the "double-reverse" suppression of European and American countries, it is expected that the short-term shock of natural rubber is likely to weaken; It is expected that Southeast Asia will stop cutting next month, and China has not yet begun to tap rubber and when enterprises increase their work after the Spring Festival holiday, the probability of rebound is relatively large
.