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Last week, Shanghai aluminum first rose and then fell, falling below the 19,000 mark during the session, with a cumulative decline of more than 1,000 yuan in three days, a cumulative weekly decline of 3%; The short-term aluminum price correction trend has not yet ended, and the following continues to focus on the 18000 mark support
.
It is expected that the price of aluminum will fall steadily, and the decline will slow down
.
Last week, aluminum ingots maintained a stable destocking situation, with inventories falling by 4.
1 to 1.
02 million tons week-on-week, downstream procurement enthusiasm significantly improved, and spot transactions increased
significantly compared with last week.
In terms of processing, profiles are the main driving force for overall consumption, orders from real estate continue to pick up, including traditional profiles and building templates, while cable companies feedback that orders received by the State Grid and South Grid have improved significantly, other sectors are mainly stable, and domestic peak season demand is maintained
.
At the supply level, the power sector in Yunnan gradually increased the proportion of smelter load reduction in the middle of the week, although there is not such a large reduction in production, but if the drought situation does not improve, the impact is still likely to expand, and at the same time, the Baotou area of Inner Mongolia due to the growth rate of industrial energy consumption reached a red alert, requiring enterprises in the region to strictly implement the production reduction requirements, which may increase the impact on production capacity, so the supply disruption continues
.
Fundamentals remain strong in the near term, supply disruptions continue while demand remains strong, inventories are declining, and despite import supplementation, it is still difficult to fill the 5-6 domestic gap, and the fundamentals face strong price support
.
However, macro and political factors put greater pressure on commodities, the preliminary value of European and American manufacturing in May is still high, and the US employment situation improves, the game on the Fed's policy will intensify, and the strict control of domestic commodity prices will continue to affect sentiment in the short term, so aluminum prices may be in a wide range, it is recommended to wait and see, or macro sentiment can be cheap after excessive pressure on aluminum prices
.
