The short-term rebound of the aluminum market should not be overly optimistic

In terms of inventory, LME aluminum stocks were 955,950 tons, down 7,400 tons from the previous trading day, and the aluminum warehouse receipts in the previous period were 651134 tons, down 1,736 tons
from the previous trading day.

In terms of spot, the last period of aluminum fluctuated before
noon in the month.
Shanghai transaction concentration is 14460~14470 yuan / ton, the discount for the month is 40~30 yuan / ton, Wuxi transaction concentration is 14460~14470 yuan / ton, Hangzhou transaction concentration is 14470~14480 yuan / ton
.
East China market holders continue to hold up the price of shipments, middlemen are more willing to receive goods, because of the need to pay long orders, bullish and possible tax reduction considerations, downstream enterprises are not strong in receiving goods, the overall transaction is increasingly showing the stalemate
between supply and demand.
In the South China market, there are many sources of circulating goods, the holders are actively shipping, and the middlemen and downstream show a certain wait-and-see and fear of heights, but a large aluminum company receives a large number of goods in the market, so the overall transaction is acceptable
.

In terms of alumina, Guiyang primary alumina quotation was 3140 yuan / ton, down 35 yuan / ton from the previous trading day; Shanxi first-class alumina quotation was 3230 yuan / ton, down 110 yuan / ton from the previous trading day; Henan first-class alumina quotation was 3250 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton
from the previous trading day.

In terms of news, on the 7th, the central bank lowered the deposit reserve ratio of major financial institutions by 1 percentage point to release 750 billion funds, and yesterday's executive meeting of the State Council determined measures to improve the export tax rebate policy and accelerate the progress of tax rebates, so as to reduce the burden on enterprises and maintain the stable growth
of foreign trade.
Shandong Linyi introduced a winter production restriction policy, limiting the production of electrolytic aluminum production line by 30%, and only Huayu Aluminum has 200,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum production capacity, and the number of production restrictions is limited
.
After the holiday, electrolytic aluminum stocks increased by 17,000 tons, lower than the same period of the previous year, mainly due to some high-cost production capacity reductions, but aluminum rod stocks increased by 29,000 tons
.
During the National Day period, the number and price of real estate transactions in various places are not satisfactory, terminal demand is weakening, and the improvement of aluminum consumption driven by increasing export tax rebates remains to be seen, and the short-term rebound of aluminum should not be overly optimistic
.