The short-term tight supply situation continues Shanghai aluminum still has upward momentum

Market focus: (1) The European Union on Monday asked China to fulfill its commitment to open its economy and warned that it would face "very negative consequences"
if China continued to implement the new security law against Hong Kong.
(2) IAI data, global primary aluminum production rose to 5.
448 million tons in May, and 5.
274 million tons
after revision in April.
China's primary aluminum production forecast rose to 3.
105 million mt in May and was revised to 2.
997 million mt
in April.

Spot analysis: On June 23, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 14010-14050 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14030 yuan / ton, up 70 yuan / ton
per day.
Intraday market circulation spot is tight, a large household normal rhythm purchase, holders shipments are relatively positive, but the quotation is firm, middlemen receive many goods, because tomorrow is the last spot trading day of the long order execution month, some traders are eager to receive goods and hand over long orders
.
The downstream released signs of pre-holiday stocking within the day, but due to the overall high price of aluminum, the enthusiasm for receiving goods was not as expected
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 92,563 tons on Tuesday, a daily decrease of 1,060 tons, down for 6 consecutive days; On June 22, LME aluminum stocks were 1617825 tons, an increase of 12,200 tons
per day.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2008 contract were 93087 lots, a daily increase of 4049 lots, short positions 115466 lots, a daily increase of 3961 lots, a net short position of 22379 lots, a daily decrease of 88 lots, long and short increases, and net space decreases
.

On June 23, the main force of Shanghai aluminum 2008 shock pullback
.
The global epidemic situation is still grim, and the number of new daily cases is rising, which suppresses market optimism; At the same time, overseas downstream demand has been greatly affected by the epidemic, and the strong supply and demand are weak, and the trend of aluminum inventory accumulation is weak; And the opening of China's import window will stimulate overseas imports, and the pressure on aluminum prices has increased
.
However, domestic downstream demand continues to perform strongly, driving Shanghai aluminum inventories to continue to degrade, short-term supply tightness continues, aluminum prices still have upward momentum
.
In terms of spot, intraday market circulation spot is tight, a large household purchases at a normal pace, cargo holders are relatively active in shipments, and downstream intraday release signs
of pre-holiday stocking.
Technically, the mainstream long position of the main 2008 contract of Shanghai aluminum increased its position greatly, focusing on the support of the 10-day moving average, and it is expected that there will be more
short-term volatility.