The state requires pharmaceutical companies to produce as many as possible H1N1 vaccines

The situation of influenza A epidemic is severe: ① the number of local cases has risen rapidly: in the past week, 95% of local cases have been reported, while less than 5% of imported cases have been reported All 31 provinces in the mainland of China have reported confirmed cases ② The number of cases of aggregative diseases increased rapidly: from late June to September 7, 128 cases of aggregative H1N1 had occurred, especially since September ③ Influenza A virus has taken root in some people: among the cases with influenza like symptoms in some provinces, the number of people detected with influenza A virus has increased, indicating that influenza A virus has taken root in some people in China ④ In autumn and winter, both who and domestic experts believe that H1N1 will peak The principles of vaccination program are as follows: ① susceptible and vulnerable groups, especially middle school students: people aged 5-19 are prone to cluster cases, which are both susceptible groups and infectious sources ② People with basic diseases, especially those with chronic respiratory system diseases and cardiovascular diseases, attach great importance to pregnant women in the world ③ Public service personnel on the front line: medical personnel, port quarantine personnel, railway and civil aviation personnel, as well as personnel on the front line such as *, armed *, police and so on (4) key areas of influenza A: according to the number of cases, the frequency of clustering events, and the detection rate of influenza A virus among the influenza population, the vaccination will be started first The state requires enterprises to produce as much as possible to meet the demand of influenza A vaccine: for 1.3 billion people, the capacity of influenza A vaccine in China is limited On September 7, the executive meeting of the State Council called for the organization of influenza A vaccine enterprises to produce as many vaccines as possible while ensuring the quality We conservatively estimate that the national collection and storage price of influenza A vaccine is 20 yuan, and the gross margin is equivalent to that of seasonal influenza vaccine: ① we judge that the price of influenza A vaccine is not higher than that of seasonal influenza vaccine (30 yuan) ② One strain is needed for the production of influenza A vaccine, while three strains are needed for the production of seasonal influenza vaccine ③ Due to the strain, the yield of influenza A vaccine is only about 30% of that of seasonal influenza vaccine, and the cost increases Considering the above factors, we conservatively estimate that the price of influenza A vaccine is 20 yuan, and the gross profit rate is equivalent to that of seasonal influenza vaccine (the gross profit rate of seasonal influenza vaccine of Hualan biology in 2008 is 67%) It is preliminarily judged that by the end of the year, the national order is 65 million doses, and Hualan biology and Tiantan biology respectively obtain 20 million doses and 3 million doses: the production capacity of Hualan biology a-stream vaccine Zui is large, and the earnings per share in 2009 may reach 1.3 yuan Further, if the number of national orders rises to 130 million, the performance will be further improved In addition, the sales of seasonal influenza vaccine exceed expectations, and the export of influenza A vaccine may also become the company's two major focuses From 2009 to 2010, the performance of Tiantan biology is flexible and has investment opportunities Enterprises of class a drugs and diagnostic reagents will also benefit from the development of the epidemic situation: with the increase of the number of infected people, the government's purchase of Tamiflu will increase, and Haizheng pharmaceutical, the intermediate producer of Tamiflu, will benefit significantly Shangyao group's output is small, and the second benefit With the development of H1N1 epidemic, the sales volume of H1N1 diagnostic reagents will rise correspondingly, and the diagnostic reagent manufacturers such as Kehua biology, Daan gene and Fosun medicine will also benefit