The status of my country's oil refining power is further improved

■The world's oil refining center continues to move eastward

The growth rate of world refining capacity has slowed down significantly, and the new capacity mainly comes from China.

In 2020, the world’s newly added oil refining capacity will be about 54.
25 million tons/year, a sharp drop from the previous year’s 123 million tons/year increase.

The status of Asia-Pacific refining continues to improve, and the gap in refining capabilities between China and the United States has further narrowed.

In the past five years, the refining capacity in the Asia-Pacific and Middle East regions has continued to grow, while the refining capacity in Europe has gradually shrunk, the refining capacity in North America has stagnated, and the world's refining center of gravity has continued to move eastward.

■The utilization rate of world refineries has generally declined

Affected by the new crown epidemic, the world's crude oil processing volume has dropped significantly.

In 2020, the world's crude oil processing capacity in refineries will plummet from 81.
7 million barrels per day in 2019 to about 74.

The utilization rate of the world's refineries has generally fallen sharply, hitting a record low.

In 2020, the average utilization rate of global refinery capacity has dropped sharply from the operating range of 80% to 90% in the past 20 years, and the capacity utilization rate of global refineries has dropped sharply from 81% in 2019 to about 72%, a record low.

　　The price gap between oil products and crude oil has narrowed, and the world's refining gross profit has fallen sharply.

In 2020, the price difference between oil products and crude oil narrowed compared with the previous year.

　　The new crown epidemic has impacted oil demand, and refineries adjusted their product structure to respond to changes in demand.

In 2020, the new crown epidemic has reduced global oil demand, and oil production has declined to varying degrees.

　　■Biofuels are becoming more and more popular

　　North American refiners were forced to close or idle some refineries, and some independent refiners began to switch to biofuels.

In 2020, the epidemic caused many refiners in North America to announce the temporary suspension of refinery production, and the closure and conversion of production reduced the operational refining capacity of the United States from 18.
97 million barrels per day at the beginning of the year to 18.

　　European oil refiners seek new living space, and some have transformed to produce biofuels.

Individual refineries in Japan, Australia and other countries have begun to shut down and reduce production.

　　The oil refining industry in the countries along the “Belt and Road” has been affected by the epidemic to reduce production, and the construction of oil refining projects has slowed down but continued to advance.
Some refiners in the countries along the “Belt and Road” were forced to reduce production, and some refineries were sealed up.
The epidemic has slowed the progress of some refining and chemical projects under construction, but the overall progress is still going on.
India seeks to continue to expand its refining capacity and proposes to increase its refining capacity from the current 250 million tons/year to 400 million tons/year in 2025.
Some oil refining projects in the Middle East and Africa are still in progress.

　　■The capacity utilization rate and gross profit of the oil refining industry are difficult to return to pre-epidemic levels

　　The world's oil refining capacity continues to grow slowly.
In 2021, it is estimated that the global new refining capacity will be about 46.
85 million tons/year, and the total refining capacity will reach 5.
16 billion tons/year.
The new refining capacity will mainly come from the Middle East.
It is estimated that Kuwait’s 31.
5 million tons/year Azul large-scale refinery is expected to be completed, and China’s refining capacity will reach 900 million tons/year.
The refining capacity of China and the United States is expected to be basically the same, such as the United States.
The planned closure of the refinery will be completely closed, and China’s refining capacity is expected to surpass the United States to become the world’s largest oil refining country, thus ending the United States’ status as the world’s number one oil refining country since the mid-nineteenth century.
In the next five years, it is estimated that the global new refining capacity will be approximately 220 million tons per year, and most of the new refining capacity will use the latest refining technology, and most of them will be integrated refining and chemical projects.
At the same time, Europe, the United States and the Asia-Pacific region may close the refining capacity of about 15 million tons per year.
The main sources of refining capacity growth are the Middle East, China and India.
The world's refining industry will accelerate its eastward shift.

　　It is difficult for the refining industry's capacity utilization rate and refining gross profit to return to the levels before the epidemic.
In 2021, with the gradual recovery of demand, the crude oil processing capacity of world refineries is expected to recover to around 79.
1 million barrels per day.
Due to the continuous increase in global refining capacity, and the impact of factors such as the epidemic and energy transition, the demand for refined products has been impacted.
It is expected that the utilization rate of global refining capacity will slowly recover to about 76% in 2021, and it is expected to rise to about 81% in 2022, and after that It has been maintained at this level for several years, and it is difficult to return to the level before the outbreak.
Although the world's refining margins are expected to continue to recover in 2021, under the prospect of shrinking demand and oversupply, the world's refining margins will remain low in the next five years, and it will be difficult to return to the level before the outbreak.

　　Global refiners have generally felt the negative impact of the epidemic, but the impact on refiners is uneven.
Due to the relatively small impacts in Asia and the better prospects for future market growth in Asia, Asian refiners have an advantage over their European and American counterparts in terms of demand.
Refineries with the oldest facilities, the smallest scale, and the least complex processes in Europe and North America are under the greatest pressure.

　　Refining investment strategies will change.
Energy transformation will accelerate the adjustment and transformation of European and American refineries.
Asia-Pacific refiners will focus on refining and chemical integration.
Refining investment strategies that only focus on fuel growth are a thing of the past.
The energy transition strategy proposed by oil companies will make European and American refiners face continuous adjustments.
Many European countries have put the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles on the agenda.
The sales of oil products will face tremendous pressure from alternative fuels.
Refinery production will be adjusted to reduce the output of surplus products.
Switching to producing biofuels or producing more chemical products are the main strategies that refiners can adopt in the short and medium term.

　　Factors such as stagnant fuel demand, tightening environmental regulations and external competition have prompted some European and American refiners to choose to produce biofuels.
Under the new normal of energy transition, refiners need to continuously adjust and optimize their refining assets.
The focus of investment is shifting to the transformation and upgrading of high-quality refining assets.
For inefficient and old refining assets, refiners will speed up the transfer and sale of refining assets.
Transfer to other terminal uses, or even close it permanently.
The combined processing of advanced renewable raw materials and crude oil may become the norm for the future development of European and American refineries, and Asian refiners close to demand growth markets will continue to deepen refining and chemical integration to respond to market changes and enhance their competitiveness.

　　■During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, my country's oil refining capacity was severe

　　In 2021, the refining capacity and crude oil processing volume will reach a new level, and the export of refined oil will continue to record highs.
The refining capacity exceeded 900 million tons, and the new capacity came from private enterprises.
In 2021, China's oil refining industry is expected to have a net increase of 14.
74 million tons/year, with a total capacity of 900 million tons/year.
The refining capacity of private enterprises increased to 263 million tons per year, accounting for 29.
2%.
Crude oil processing volume broke the 700 million tons mark for the first time, and refined oil exports reached a new high.
It is estimated that China's crude oil processing volume will be 705 million tons in 2021, an increase of 4.
5% over the previous year.
The net export volume of refined oil will reach 54.
7 million tons, a 31.
7% increase over the previous year.

　　During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the refining capacity will rise to 980 million tons/year, and the excess capacity will be at least 160 million tons/year.
There will still be a number of 10 million-ton refineries built and put into production in China, with an estimated net increase of 96 million tons/year (an increase of 137 million tons/year, and 41 million tons/year phased out).
It is estimated that the domestic refining capacity will reach 9.
8 in 2025.
100 million tons/year.

　　After considering the demand and export space, China’s refining capacity will be at least 160 million tons/year in excess in 2025; then consider that countries along the “Belt and Road” will continue to promote refining projects to meet their own domestic needs or increase refined oil exports to replace crude oil exports.
The degree of overcapacity will further intensify.
It is worth noting that due to the impact of the epidemic, global refineries were forced to suspend production or overhaul in advance.
After the epidemic, global refineries resumed normal production and their overhaul capacity was significantly reduced.
The global supply of refined oil is expected to continue to increase in the future, and the competition in refined oil trade is also intensified.
Will make the refining margins hover at a low level.

　　Transfer from: China Petrochemical News

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