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    Home > Active Ingredient News > Feed Industry News > The "strongest chicken cycle" is on the rise: last year one earned three years of money this year.

    The "strongest chicken cycle" is on the rise: last year one earned three years of money this year.

    • Last Update: 2020-09-11
    • Source: Internet
    • Author: User
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    In the last two years, there has been not only the "strongest pig cycle" but also the "strongest chicken cycle".
    However, the market value of the pig-breeding leader Makhara shares exceeded 300 billion yuan, but the market value of the chicken tap is missing a "0": the latter just stood on the wind on the heavy fall, chicken prices from the historical high to the historical low but hurriedly for a few months.
    also reflects the capital market's judgment on the state of the chicken industry.
    industry insiders said that last year in two to three months can buy an Audi A6L, this year in one month can lose two Audi A6L.
    some people joke that there are "three high" (high blood pressure, high blood sugar, high blood lipids), heart disease people are not suitable for raising chickens: the price rose easy to burst blood vessels, the price of low heart can not stand.
    these vivid stories illustrate the current risks in the chicken industry.
    but the commodity industry has its own economic laws, the price fluctuations of the chicken industry are also related to breeding efficiency, supply and demand relations.
    concerned about the trend of chicken prices, in addition to farmers, but also the capital market.
    from the June monthly report data, the relevant listed companies have come out of the worst moment, sales revenue began to grow month-on-month.
    last year's hot: 17 years of unprecedented market, a year to earn three years of money in the last two years, the history of the strongest "pig cycle" is booming, the peak price, raising a pig can earn up to 3000 yuan.
    with the "pig cycle", there is also a history of the strongest "chicken cycle."
    farmers said: "This life has not seen such a market, a hundred years difficult!" According to Oriental Wealth Choice, on October 30, 2019, the price of broiler chicken reached an all-time high of 13.5 yuan/kg, more than three times the 2016 cycle low of 4.2 yuan/kg. This is still white feather chicken, yellow feather broiler chicken is more expensive.
    according to the monthly report data disclosed by Lihua Shares, the leading company of Huangyu chicken, the average selling price of the company's commercial broiler in November last year reached 17.32 yuan/kg.
    " last year's worst time made almost five or six million (a month), usually a million.
    " Chengdu Superstar Poultry Co. , Ltd. chicken farm director recalled last year's hot market in the chicken market.
    Ren said, the cost of a commodity chicken is 5 to 6 yuan / catty, the peak price can even sell to more than 10 yuan / catty, commodity chicken per catty profit is 4 to 5 yuan, "I have not encountered this kind of market in 17 years."
    a chicken from Sichuan Sanlian Agricultural Development Co., Ltd.
    photo source: every reporter Shuai Shuai filmed "raising 20,000 chickens to earn 7.8 million!" A chicken hatchery employee "pop" a hard pat on the table, straight compared to two fingers, "2 to 3 months to buy an Audi A6L! I also know that last year there was a chicken farm to earn (income) 10 million!" He paints the details of the industry in a somewhat exaggerated way, but it's clear that this feast of wealth has a huge impact.
    this year reversed: chicken seedlings lost money no one wants, February fell to a record low cycle change, highs become low, the strongest "chicken cycle" just stood on the wind and then fell heavily.
    "Now chicken seedlings 2 to 3 pieces / only, some time ago to sell more than 1 piece, sell at a loss no one wants!" In late July, a chicken farm owner's daily work theme is basically one: how to sell chicken seedlings.
    7, 2019, the price of 817 chicken seedlings in Luze, Shandong Province reached an all-time high of 3.9 yuan per feather, according to Oriental Wealth Choice.
    on February 13 this year, the price had fallen to an all-time low of 0.15 yuan per feather.
    even if it's a roller coaster ride, there's always a bounce along the way.
    but chicken prices have fallen from record highs to record lows in less than three months, with a 90-degree drop.
    " chicken seedlings cost about five (one) a piece, and now sell for only two.
    " some varieties of chicken seedlings remain weak profits, and some chicken seedlings can only be sold at a loss.
    last year's high of 12 yuan / only, the current price of chicken seedlings is only 1/6 of the time.
    because of differences in farming costs, the industry is divided over whether the current price has lost money across the industry.
    " this year's live poultry market is shrinking, but the choice of chickens are love to choose live chickens, chicken crown bright, chickens have no vitality will affect consumer choice.
    " industry believes that people have not yet adapted to the chicken industry's standardized slaughter, which also affects consumption.
    reasons for the reversal: short chicken breeding cycle, high industry concentration of chicken threshold is low, giving retail farmers and cross-border opportunities.
    Last year, the market is hot, pig-breeding chickens, do feed also raise chickens, chickens to raise chickens, new production capacity led to commodity chicken out of the column at a certain point in time explosive growth, supply and demand imbalance led to a sharp drop in prices.
    in the supply structure of new capacity, the contribution of the supply of retail farmers is not high.
    because the industry concentration of the chicken industry is higher than that of pig farming, early realization of professional farming.
    Ministry of Ecological Environment has disclosed the number of large-scale broiler farms from 2011 to 2015, with a five-year growth rate of 7.95 percent for total farmers, of which 50,000 to 100,000 (excluding) farms with an annual output of 1.34 percent; The five-year growth rate of 500,000 (excluding) farms was 19.45 percent, the five-year growth rate of 500,000 to 1 million (excluding) farms was 32.81 percent, and the five-year growth rate of farms with more than one million farms in the annual output column was as high as 155.34 percent.
    According to the poultry branch of the China Livestock Association, in 2019, China's top 10 Huangyu broiler enterprises accounted for 40.31 percent of the annual output of domestic Yellow Feather commodity broiler, of which Wenshi shares and Lihua shares accounted for about 26 percent of the market share.
    prices rebounded: listed companies actively expand the farmers most concerned about the future prices, good in the near future chicken prices have rebounded.
    " consumption rebound, in fact, this year's price can also return to 6 yuan / catty.
    ", said a chicken farm director, the previous period of low prices are not sustainable, and now prices have begun to recover.
    but several respondents said chicken prices were unlikely to return to last year's "strongest chicken cycle".
    "can't go back to last year's situation."
    Jinhou, director of consumer product research at Shen Wanhongyuan Securities Research Institute and chief analyst in the agricultural sector, said this was mainly due to demand for chicken consumption.
    Last year's high price to buy chicken seedlings bet a wave of people have experienced the market risk education, this part is equivalent to being squeezed out of the production capacity, "invested in a batch of chicken seedlings to lose money for many years, hard to raise a few years to earn money, may be a wave of losses."
    but whether it is white feather chicken, chicken seedlings or yellow feather broiler, the head of the chicken industry is actively expanding production capacity.
    Recently, Yisheng shares and Xiantan shares signed a "joint venture agreement" to set up Shandong Yixian Breeding Poultry Co., Ltd., the main parents on behalf of chicken breeding, feed processing, chick hatching and sales.
    total investment of the project is 200 million yuan.
    Lihua shares said that the company's future Yellow Feather Chicken plate will continue to maintain an annual growth target of 5% to 10%, while increasing the integration of chicken companies supporting the construction of slaughtering capacity.
    min and shares in July this year disclosed a planned capital increase, proposed to raise 650 million yuan for the annual storage column of 800,000 sets of parents breeding chicken breeding park project, the annual incubation of 100 million commercial broiler hatchery construction projects.
    market outlook: chicken stocks go volatile market or dilemma reversal? Also in farming, the market value of chicken concept stocks is basically one "0" less than that of pig farmers.
    first quarter of this year, the performance of chicken stocks is generally depressed.
    half-yearly results or earnings forecasts show that the downturn is likely to intensify.
    reporters interviewed a number of listed companies found that, with the price of chickens stabilized, chicken listed companies have come out of the "worst time."
    and shareholders say it is still largely profitable.
    of the company stressed that there are seasonal factors, "every June's season to catch up with particularly hot weather, is the chicken consumption off-season."
    from the June monthly sales data, chicken stocks rebounded strongly.
    's yisheng shares in June chicken seedling sales revenue increased 16.97% month-on-month, and Min and shares increased 31.86% month-on-month ... The current quarterly and semi-annual results (or earnings forecasts), the chicken industry handed over the worst performance in the last two years, a number of listed companies, the net profit fell sharply.
    but on the other hand, the downward trend in share prices reflects the performance of the short, when the chicken price rebounded, which also buried the expected reversal of the pen.
    .
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