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    Home > Organic Chemistry Topics > Organic Chemistry Project > The structural surplus of my country's refining capacity will exceed 100 million tons in 2020

    The structural surplus of my country's refining capacity will exceed 100 million tons in 2020

    • Last Update: 2022-02-20
    • Source: Internet
    • Author: User
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    Entering 2017, China’s oil refining industry continues to be in a state of serious structural surplus.
    In the future, as multiple private and main refining projects are completed and put into production, coupled with limited room for export growth, the contradiction of excess refining capacity will become more prominent.
    , The situation tends to be severe, which is worthy of vigilance and should be given high attention
    .
    ? Refining market data at a glance? As of the end of 2016, China's refining capacity has reached 750 million tons per year, accounting for 15% of the global refining capacity, ranking second in the world
    .
    ? From the perspective of business entities, China has formed a competitive landscape with diversified market players such as PetroChina and Sinopec, CNOOC, ChemChina, Sinochem, China Weapon, local oil refining, foreign-funded and coal-based oil companies
    .
    ? In terms of the number of refineries, there are 26 CNPC, 35 Sinopec, 12 CNOOC, 15 coal to oil, and more than 100 other refineries (mainly small and medium refineries)
    .
    ? In 2016, there were still 24 ten-million-ton refineries in the country, with a total refining capacity of 314 million tons/year, accounting for only 42% of the country.
    The average refinery scale of Sinopec was 7.
    43 million tons/year, and PetroChina was 7.
    25 million tons/year.
    Close to the world average size
    .
    ? However, the existence of many small and medium-sized refineries makes the average scale of the national refineries only about 4.
    05 million tons per year, which is much lower than the world average level of 7.
    54 million tons per year
    .
    ? In sharp contrast to the 750 million tons of oil refining capacity, in 2016, China's crude oil processing volume was only 540 million tons, and the average operating rate of various refineries was only 76.
    7%.
    ? Really understand the "refining energy surplus"? China's refining capacity exists The structural surplus in China is the surplus of low-end production capacity? There are four imbalances in the development of China’s oil refining industry:? 1.
    Imbalance in layout
    .
    China's oil refining capacity is still based on the layout of the east, the oil from the north to the south, and the oil from the west to the east
    .
    2.
    The technical and economic indicators and equipment levels among the refineries are unbalanced.
    There are not many refineries that have reached the world's advanced level, and the advanced production capacity is not excessive
    .
    Many refineries are still far behind the international advanced level in various indicators, and the gap between small refineries and the advanced level in terms of resource utilization efficiency, energy consumption, and "three wastes" emissions is even more obvious.

    .
    ? 3.
    Unbalanced production capacity of high-end oil products
    .
    The capacity of China's refineries to produce high-clean, high-value-added oil products is unbalanced, and there are still a large number of refining capacities that can only produce lower-quality refined oil
    .
    ? 4 Unbalanced integration level
    .
    Among the country’s 24 large 10 million-ton refinery bases, 16 are equipped with ethylene plants.
    The Bohai Bay, Yangtze River Delta, and Pearl River Delta regions have become the regions with the highest degree of refining and chemical integration in the country; It can realize the integration of refining and chemical industry, and the comprehensive processing level and comprehensive utilization capacity of resources are relatively weak
    .
    ? The imbalance of domestic oversupply? China's net exports of refined oil have exploded year after year
    .
    China's net exports of gasoline, coal and diesel were only 4.
    95 million tons in 2012, jumped to 9.
    68 million tons in 2013, 14.
    85 million tons in 2014, 21.
    35 million tons in 2015, and soared to 33.
    55 million tons in 2016, an increase of 57.
    8% year-on-year .
    It is precisely in the past few years that the net export of refined oil has soared at an average annual rate of 40% to 50%, which has greatly eased the pressure of excess domestic oil resources.
    The engine eliminated tens of millions of tons of outdated production capacity, causing the country's total oil refining capacity to linger for two consecutive years, giving the outside world the illusion and illusion that the domestic oil refining capacity is not too serious
    .
    But in fact, as of the end of 2016, China's oil refining capacity is still at least 70 million tons/year surplus, and the surplus situation is still not optimistic
    .
    ? Refining: There is one of the three in the world? As of the end of 2016, the total refining capacity of local refineries (including those acquired or controlled by central enterprises) was 262 million tons per year, accounting for 34.
    8% of the total refining capacity of the country.
    Especially after the deregulation of the "two rights", the local refinery has shown strong competitiveness and impact, and has become an important part of the domestic oil refining industry
    .
    ? As of the end of 2016, the state has issued 81.
    93 million tons of crude oil use quotas to 22 local refineries.
    The annual crude oil imports have soared from 1.
    1 million tons in 2015 to 44.
    9 million tons, which accounted for the total amount of domestic crude oil imports.
    11.
    8% of the total volume, the increase accounted for 74.
    4% of the national crude oil import increase that year, and the crude oil import pattern has undergone major changes.

    .
    ? The processing volume of refined crude oil throughout the year exceeded 100 million tons, accounting for 18.
    8% of the total domestic crude oil processing, a year-on-year increase of 26.
    1%;? The operating rate was 52.
    6%, a year-on-year increase of 12.
    8 percentage points, a record high
    .
    ? During the same period, the output of gasoline and diesel was 73.
    33 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 24.
    4%;? With its price advantage and operating flexibility, the local gasoline and diesel market share reached 23.
    8%, a year-on-year increase of 4.
    2%
    .
    ? Affected by the impact of local refining, the share of major companies such as Sinopec and PetroChina has been declining, from 90% in 2010 to 76.
    2% in 2016.
    The structure of the refined oil market has undergone major changes? The surplus in 2020 will exceed 100 million tons ? According to the projects that have been basically determined to be put into operation, China will add 120 million tons of refining capacity per year by 2020 (see the table below), that is to say, the new capacity will be about 30 million tons per year, and the total refining capacity will reach at least 8.
    7 100 million tons/year
    .
    From the perspective of the domestic net export of refined oil, the net export volume of refined oil in 2020 may reach more than 50 million tons, accounting for 15% of the total domestic refined oil output.
    By then, China may surpass South Korea and India to become The largest net exporter of refined oil products in the Asia-Pacific region
    .
    Integrating the expansion of domestic refining capacity, changes in demand and the possible export of refined oil products, the domestic refining capacity surplus in 2020 is estimated in three scenarios
    .
    The result is:? Under the low scenario, the domestic refining capacity surplus will reach 80 million tons/year;? Under the benchmark normal scenario, the domestic refining capacity surplus will reach 110 million tons/year;? Under the high scenario, the domestic refining capacity surplus will reach as high as 160 million tons/year Tons/year
    .
    It needs to be pointed out that the basic conclusion that China's oil refining capacity will have a surplus of at least 100 million tons per year by 2020 is the absolute surplus after fully satisfying domestic demand and exporting as much as possible
    .
    If exports are blocked or not smooth, excess capacity may increase
    .
    It can be seen that the situation of surplus domestic oil refining capacity will be severe in the future
    .
    ? Faced with the severe situation of overcapacity in oil refining, we must call for the rational and scientific development of my country's oil refining industry
    .
    As long as the whole country is a game of chess, handled properly, actively fights, and resolves effectively, with the further increase of China's economic aggregate and the growth of energy demand, China's oil refining industry will get rid of temporary difficulties, achieve greater and better development, and achieve greater growth.
    The dream of becoming a stronger refining country
    .
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