The supply and demand of the aluminum market before the holiday are weak, and it is expected that the market will be adjusted in the future

On January 23, LME aluminum fell sharply, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at 1802 US dollars / ton, down 0.
41%
per day.
The main 2003 contract of Shanghai aluminum came under pressure to the downside, with the highest 14185 yuan / ton and the lowest 14070 yuan / ton within the day, closing at 14100 yuan / ton, down 0.
46%
from the closing price of the previous trading day.

Market focus: (1) As of 14:00 on January 23, a total of 616 confirmed cases of new coronavirus infection have been reported nationwide, 28 cases have been cured, and 17 cases have died
.
The passage leaving Wuhan is temporarily closed
.
(2) UK January CBI industrial price expectation difference 2, previous value 6, expected 5
.
(3) Chalco Shanxi China Resources plans to increase the annual production capacity of electrolytic aluminum by 250,000 tons this year, when the total annual production capacity will reach 500,000 tons
.

Spot analysis: On January 23, spot A00 aluminum reported 14080-14120 yuan / ton, the average price was 14100 yuan / ton, up 10 yuan / ton
per day.
The intraday market transaction is extremely light, the holders and middlemen are in a state of holiday, the supply and demand are weak, and there is almost no transaction
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 76,652 tons on Thursday, a daily decrease of 1,102 tons; On January 22, LME aluminum stocks were 1,292,500 tons, a daily decrease of 16,550 tons, and a decline of 22 consecutive days
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2003 contract were 76750 lots, minus 1521 lots per day, short positions were 88092 lots, daily minus 558 lots, net short positions were 11342 lots, daily increase of 963 lots, long and short were reduced, and net space increased
.

On January 23, the main force of Shanghai aluminum in 2003 came under pressure and declined
.
The probability of the Bank of England cutting interest rates has declined, the pound has risen to pressure the dollar, while the current electrolytic aluminum inventory is still at a low level, with the end of delivery inventory has fallen, coupled with the increase in downstream aluminum production, short-term primary aluminum supply performance is tight, there is still support for aluminum prices, but the spread trend of China's pneumonia epidemic, market risk aversion aggravated, if the subsequent epidemic can not be effectively controlled, will affect the start of production and demand vitality after the year, superimposed on electrolytic aluminum production capacity release expectations and pre-holiday downstream demand weakened, the pressure on aluminum prices gradually increased
。 In terms of spot, intraday market transactions are extremely light, holders and middlemen are in a state of holiday, supply and demand are weak, and there is almost no transaction
.
Technically, the main 2003 contract of Shanghai aluminum daily MACD dead cross signs, if the 14100 mark below will pay attention to the 14020 level support, it is expected that the market shock adjustment
.