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    Home > Chemicals Industry > China Chemical > The supply side continues to shrink in September thermal coal prices will remain strong

    The supply side continues to shrink in September thermal coal prices will remain strong

    • Last Update: 2022-06-21
    • Source: Internet
    • Author: User
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      Recently, Zhengzhou Coal has been trending strongly, rising continuously and breaking through 580 points; the price of thermal coal at the port has also risen slightly.
    The fundamental reason is that the supply side continues to shrink and transportation is blocked, and the poor upstream and downstream transmission has exacerbated the mismatch of supply and demand.


      Strict investigations in the main coal production areas
    The


      recent illegal mining incidents in Qinghai open-pit mines have been further fermented, which has further increased the expected closure of open-pit mines; open-pit mines in northern Shaanxi are also facing strict inspections, and some coal mines have been closed.
    Since the beginning of this year, coal mines in the main producing areas have continued to face strict supervision.
    Inner Mongolia’s “20-year reverse inspection” policy has been very strong, which has greatly restrained the overproduction of coal; Shaanxi’s coal management ticket policy has been implemented very strictly, and open-pit mining has been affected.
    Significantly affected.
    On the whole, domestic efforts to crack down on black coal and over-production of coal have increased since the beginning of this year.
    According to data released by relevant agencies, the cumulative output of raw coal from January to July this year was 2.
    12 billion tons, a decrease of 0.
    1% year-on-year; the output of raw coal in July further declined, with monthly output of 320 million tons, down 3.
    7% year-on-year and 4.
    9% month-on-month.


      Imports fell sharply

      According to the General Administration of Customs data, coal imports fell sharply to 20.
    663 million tons in August, down 20.
    8% month-on-month and 37.
    3% year-on-year; cumulative coal imports from January to August were 221 million tons, a slight increase of 0.
    2% year-on-year .
    The effect of import control policies is very obvious.
    Imports have been regulated since May, and import volume has fallen from a high level.
    This year, the country’s coal import policy is likely to still implement level control.
    If the level of control is implemented in accordance with the import scale of 2017, the remaining quota from September to December is only 50.
    183 million tons, which is only 12.
    546 million tons in a single month.
    If the scale of imports for the whole year is equalized, the remaining quota from September to December is 78.
    917 million tons, and the single month is 19.
    73 million tons.
    Regardless of the level of control standards, the remaining four months of this year's imports will continue to fall sharply.


      Short-term capacity is difficult to recover

      On August 17 and August 24, affected by heavy rain, the Daqin Railway experienced two train derailments within a week.
    Since then, the Daqin Railway has reduced its speed and volume.
    Up to now, the railway capacity of the Daqin Line has not returned to normal.
    The daily transportation volume is about 1.
    1 million tons, which is about 15% lower than the normal volume.
    As of the week of September 6, the four northern ports transferred 9.
    948 million tons, a slight rebound of 4.
    9% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 3.
    7%; the four northern ports transferred 10.
    783 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.
    5% and a year-on-year decrease of 3%.
    Due to the limited capacity, the port transfer volume is smaller than the transfer volume, which intensifies the decline of port inventory.
    In addition, the autumn inspection of the Daqin line is about to start, which will last for about 20 days, which will continue to suppress the further increase in transportation capacity.
    It can be expected that the capacity will remain low in September.


      The demand or the off-season is not

      weak.
    The secondary industry's electricity consumption may reverse its weakness.
    From January to July, the total electricity consumption of the whole society was 404 million kwh, a decrease of 0.
    7% year-on-year.
    Among them, the electricity consumption of the secondary industry decreased by 2.
    2% year-on-year, and the electricity consumption of urban and rural residents increased by 8% year-on-year.
    The electricity consumption of the whole society was 682.
    4 billion kWh in July, an increase of 2.
    3% year-on-year.
    Among them, the electricity consumption of urban and rural residents made the main contribution, an increase of 13.
    8% year-on-year, and the electricity consumption of the secondary industry decreased by 0.
    7% year-on-year.


      Under the policy of expanding internal circulation, the scale of special bond issuance this year is 3.
    75 trillion yuan, 2.
    9 trillion yuan has been issued from January to August, and the remaining amount of 853.
    7 billion yuan in the later period.
    The Ministry of Finance requires all issuance by the end of October.
    Then the average monthly issuance scale from September to October is 426.
    8 billion yuan, which is significantly higher than the average monthly issuance from January to August.
    Large-scale special debt investment will obviously support the construction of new infrastructure, new urbanization, transportation, water conservancy and other major projects, thereby driving the recovery of electricity consumption in the secondary industry.
    In addition to the large-scale development of infrastructure, the real estate market will also maintain a strong resilience in September, and the demand for rush jobs will remain strong in the second half of the year.
    The year-on-year growth rate of electricity consumption in the secondary industry can be expected to be relatively strong in the later period.


      The margin of hydropower substitution weakened.
    Entering the third quarter, the country has experienced continuous rain on a large scale.
    The southern part has experienced an ultra-long rainy season, and the rainfall reached a historical high level.
    The recent rainfall has moved northward and continuous rainfall in the northern region has cooled down.
    On the whole, the high temperature weather in July and August was not as good as in previous years, and the rainfall increased significantly, and the replacement of thermal power by hydropower was very obvious.
    In July, thermal power generation decreased by 0.
    7% year-on-year, and hydropower generation increased by 6.
    1% year-on-year.
    It is expected that hydropower will still be stronger than thermal power in August.
    Entering September, the precipitation dropped seasonally, and the flows in and out of the Three Gorges Reservoir decreased significantly.
    Hydropower is still stronger than in previous years, but the replacement of thermal power will weaken marginally.


      The replenishment of power plant is about to start.
    In mid-to-late September, the power plant ushered in a seasonal replenishment cycle, thereby raising the price of vibrating coal.
    The thermal coal inventory of key power plants has declined rapidly since August.
    As of the week of September 2, the national inventory of key power plants was 76.
    43 million tons, a decrease of 3.
    75 million tons from the previous month and a year-on-year decrease of 5.
    54 million tons, or 6.
    8%.


      Port inventory is low

      due to the impact of shipping capacity, port inventory has fallen sharply recently.
    As of the week of September 7, the coal stocks of the four northern ports (Qinhuangdao, Caofeidian, Huanghua Port, Jingtang Port) were 11.
    6 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 720,000 tons, a decrease of 5.
    8%, and a year-on-year decrease of 2.
    293 million tons, a decrease of 16.
    5%.
    Recently, port inventory has fallen to the low level of the same period in previous years, and low inventory will increase the upward elasticity of prices.


      In short, the supply of thermal coal will be further tightened.
    In addition, the power plant replenishment is about to start, so the price of thermal coal will remain strong in September, fluctuating between 570-600 yuan/ton.
    (Western Futures)



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