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Shanghai aluminum soared last week, rising 1260 yuan / ton from the opening of Monday morning to the end of Friday night, an increase of 9.
8%, similar to the sharp rise over the years
.
The number of futures warehouse receipts is extremely low (2440 tons), futures inventory is also very limited, and due to factors such as poor transportation, the supply of deliverable goods in a short period of time is very scarce, so the surge is quite reasonable
.
Due to the surge in the price of Shanghai aluminum, the subsequent trend largely depends on the specific operation
of market participants.
Domestically, due to the backlog of aluminum ingots in Xinjiang and poor transportation, social inventory has not grown, and Shanghai aluminum contracts generally rose to a limit on Tuesday, and rushed to a high of 13,995 yuan / ton on Tuesday night, refreshing the high level
since October 14.
A brief correction was made on Thursday, and on Friday it continued to rise to about 13,900 yuan / ton, increasing positions and putting up, standing on all moving averages
.
The market generally expects that the arrival is still difficult to alleviate in the short term, superimposed on alumina, coal and other cost rising factors, Shanghai aluminum support is still strong, it is difficult to fall before the increase in spot concentrated arrivals, it is expected that next week may still continue to rise, it is expected that the main operating range of Shanghai aluminum next week is 13450~14400 yuan / ton
.
In terms of external trading, this week, Lun aluminum continued to rise
sharply driven by domestic Shanghai aluminum.
Lun aluminum has continued to push up since Friday's low of 1613.
5 US dollars / ton, rising 2.
17% in a single day on Tuesday, and breaking through the moving averages all the way after a week, breaking through the high of 1701.
5 US dollars / ton, and the increment is upward
.
Recently, Lun aluminum is still mainly driven by the strong domestic aluminum price, the bottom support continues to rise, and superimposed on the recent aluminum ingot import profit window has opened, overseas dollar spot premium rise, Lun aluminum trend is still strong support, it is expected that next week Lun aluminum operating range of 1670 ~ 1750 US dollars / ton
.
In terms of industry, from January to September 2016, China's automobile aluminum consumption accumulated 2.
468 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.
3%, and the growth rate increased by more than 14 percentage points over the same period last year; Domestic bauxite imports in September were 4466650 tons, a sharp decrease of 34.
3% year-on-year, and the cumulative import volume from January to September was 37709552 tons, a cumulative decrease of 2.
87%
year-on-year.
In terms of the market, there are not many continuous arrivals, holders are reluctant to sell, market supply is reduced, trade performance is active, spot premium has continuously rushed from 480 yuan / ton to more than 600 yuan / ton, low premium receipt is concentrated, spot aluminum soars with the period, downstream fear of heights is strong, trade transactions are active
。 Inventories continue to be at a low level and do not increase, but the spot transaction price of aluminum ingots has risen sharply, and it continues to rise high, downstream producers' enthusiasm for buying and production has been affected, but the willingness of holders to hold prices has not weakened, it is expected that next week's spot premium will still change with the arrival situation, and the situation of high premium is temporarily difficult to reverse, and it is expected that next week's spot premium range will be 400~550 yuan / ton
.
After the soaring aluminum price, downstream processing enterprises have been greatly impacted, and some small and medium-sized enterprises in Shandong have chosen to postpone orders; However, large aluminum processing companies are facing a surge in raw materials and have to give back their early profits and increase operating costs to complete orders
.
The transportation problems affecting the supply of aluminum ingots may be difficult to solve in the short term, while downstream automotive and other industries have performed brilliantly this year, and the demand side will continue to grow, and aluminum prices may continue to perform
strongly.
On the plate, Shanghai aluminum has the possibility of hitting a high of 14,000, and the structural mismatch between supply and demand will still guide aluminum prices to strengthen in stages, paying attention to spot and inventory changes
.
