The third batch of centralized purchase forecast! How to go in the way of centralized mining in the future?

In the post epidemic period, the second batch of national mining came to the ground one after another, and relevant conferences on centralized mining were held one after another, and the third batch of national mining startedWhen will it start? Which products will be included? Will the rules change? What is the future development direction of centralized mining? Minai.com will pre judge according to the exclusive data< br / > the meeting held in Shanghai Pharmaceutical Institute from May 14 to 15 is considered as an important signal for the third batch of national centralized procurementAccording to the online news, the new batch of national procurement will be started as soon as July, and the statistical work of the involved varieties catalogue will be up to the end of JuneHowever, affected by the epidemic situation, it is difficult to supply some varieties of the second batch of centralized mining, and three kinds of high-value consumables need to be collected in the country before the new batch of centralized mining landsTherefore, whether the third batch of centralized mining time will be delayed remains to be further confirmed< br / > at present, the national centralized mining has experienced three rounds and two batches, and the bidding rules are becoming more and more mature4 + 7 centralized procurement selects at the lowest price and promises a single source of goodsAlliance procurement allows three enterprises with the lowest quotation to chooseThe second batch of centralized procurement n-1 enterprises can select at most six enterprises after being shortlisted, and a circuit breaker mechanism with the lowest price of 1.8 times is developedIt is reported that compared with the second batch, the third batch of centralized mining may not change greatly, but some details will be fine tuned< br / > in terms of variety selection, there are sufficient competition conditionsIn public medical institutions, the terminal sales are high (including varieties with low unit price but large consumption), which belong to national medical insurance or basic drugsThe varieties with large price difference between original research and imitation, which have passed the patent period or successfully challenged by patent, are more likely to be included in the third batch of centralized procurement< br / > there are two main opinions in the industry on the full understanding of the competition conditionsOne is based on the meeting held by Shanghai Pharmaceutical bureau a few days ago, which holds that the third batch of centralized procurement will follow the competition mode of the second batch of centralized procurement of three or more enterprises, i.etwo or more evaluated enterprises + one original research; the other is based on the National Health Insurance Conference held at the beginning of this year, It is believed that the national centralized purchase will be started automatically for the varieties with 3 or more evaluated enterprises < br / > as of June 10, 282 varieties (257 generic drugs) have passed or deemed to have passed the consistency evaluation, 71 varieties (58 generic drugs) have been included in the first batch and the second batch of centralized procurement, and 38 varieties (31 generic drugs) of the remaining 211 varieties (199 generic drugs) have passed the evaluation, 58 varieties (52 generic drugs) have been evaluated by 2 enterprises < br / > in accordance with the spirit of the national medical insurance conference at the beginning of this year (January 10), we should focus on the high sales, ensure at least 25 varieties for each batch, and have 3 or more enterprises with over evaluation for each variety At present, there are 31 generic drugs that meet the requirements, among which, the problems of impurities in the oral and sustained-release dosage forms of metformin and controlled-release dosage forms of metformin have not been solved yet, These three drugs may not be included in the patent period of the oral regular release form of agliptin, and the remaining 28 drugs are more likely to be included < br / > Table 1: 19 of the 28 generic drugs with 3 or more evaluated enterprises have been approved for import, of which 14 are in the competition pattern of end-user manufacturers in public medical institutions of China in 2019 The original research manufacturers occupy the leading position, and the centralized procurement is expected to speed up the process of imitating and replacing the original research In addition to the concentrated solution for injection of levetiracetam, The remaining 27 drugs are all national medical insurance varieties, of which 14 are national basic drugs < br / > in 2019, the total sales of 28 generic drugs in public medical institutions in China exceeded 25 billion yuan, of which 23 generic drugs exceeded 100 million yuan, The sales of finasteride, tegrilol, valsartan, omeprazole, trimetazidine, anastrozole, glucosamine, montelukast chewable tablets and tamsulosin sustained-release and controlled-release formulations exceeded 1 billion yuan < br / > Figure 1: there are 5 or more generic drug companies with the number of reviewed enterprises < br / > and 5 or more generic drug companies with the number of reviewed enterprises The competition of captopril oral regular release dosage forms is the most intense There are 10 drug companies with the number of reviewed Enterprises, 11 of which meet the competition conditions; finasteride oral regular release dosage forms and tegralol oral regular release dosage forms are all followed by 7 enterprises with the number of reviewed enterprises (8 enterprises meet the competition conditions) < br / > Figure 2: enterprises involving 3 or more varieties < br / > 28 generic drugs involve 76 pharmaceutical enterprises (by group) including Yangzi River, China biopharmaceutical, Shiyao, Qilu, etc., of which Yangzi River and China biopharmaceutical involve the most varieties, all of which are 5, while Shiyao group is followed by 4 drugs < br / > 4 + 7 centralized purchase involves 31 generic drugs and 25 drugs win the bid; the second batch of centralized purchase involves 33 generic drugs and 32 drugs win the bid If we want to pursue the increasing number of each batch of centralized procurement varieties, the number of the third batch of centralized procurement varieties may be between 35-40 In order to meet the competition mode of 3 or more enterprises, in addition to 28 Enterprises with over evaluation of 3 or more drugs, some varieties with over evaluation of 2 + 1 original research are also expected to be included in the third batch of centralized procurement < br / > according to the data of MI nei.com, at present, there are 2 enterprises that have passed the evaluation of 52 generic drugs, 20 of which have not imported the original research products Of the remaining 32 drugs, 16 of which have the terminal sales of more than 1 billion yuan in public medical institutions in China in 2019, and 15 varieties may be included in the centralized purchase < br / > Table 2: two over evaluated + one original developed drugs with a sales volume of more than 1 billion yuan < br / > < br / > < br / > 15 drugs are all medical insurance products, 7 are national basic drugs; a total of 22 pharmaceutical companies (by group), including Hengrui pharmaceutical, Fosun Pharmaceutical, Yangzi River Pharmaceutical, and China biopharmaceutical, each of which has 4, 3, 2, and 2 drugs; in the end competition pattern of China's public medical institutions in 2019, There are 10 drugs dominated by the original manufacturers < br / > 1, "price reduction" and "cost control" will be the main tone In the future, volume purchase will become the normalization, and national purchase + provincial purchase coexist Guocai mainly focuses on the varieties with high terminal sales of medical institutions and a large number of overrated enterprises (3 or more), "Guijing is not expensive much", and the rest varieties are handed over to the provincial procurement The provincial procurement forms are diverse and complementary to the national procurement The notice jointly issued by the previous nine ministries and commissions pointed out that in order to promote the pilot procurement of non evaluated drugs and high-value medical consumables, it can be seen that the future provincial procurement will focus on non evaluated drugs and high-value medical consumables < br / > 2 The dosage forms will be more and more abundant 4 + 7 is composed of 21 oral regular release dosage forms, 3 injections and 1 powder The second batch is increased It is composed of 29 oral regular release dosage forms, 1 injection, 1 powder, 1 chewable tablet and 1 slow controlled release agent Other new dosage forms may be introduced in the future, such as eye drops, orally disintegrating tablets and inhalers < br / > injections are expected to be included in a large number At present, most of the varieties with high sales volume of chemical drug terminals in medical institutions are injections, but limited by the difficulty of over evaluation and the small number of over evaluation enterprises, only a few injections are included in the current centralized procurement Recently (May 14), the guidance of injection consistency evaluation was implemented, and the evaluation speed was greatly improved (completed within 120 days after acceptance), which means that the injection over evaluation will be greatly accelerated, and the injection will become the focus of national procurement in the future < br / > 3 More and more coverage 4 + 7 centralized procurement covers public medical institutions in 11 pilot cities The variety of centralized procurement of the alliance remains unchanged, and the scope is extended to public medical institutions in 25 provinces and cities The second batch of centralized procurement specifies that national public hospitals and military hospitals must participate, and private hospitals and pharmacies voluntarily participate At present, a number of pilot retail pharmacies in cities have been included in the volume purchase system In the future, Guocai will cover the retail pharmacies, and once the retail pharmacies are included in the centralized purchase, their business model and product structure will change accordingly < br / > 4 APIs will become the focus of competition Some enterprises can quote "cabbage price" in the first three rounds of centralized mining, one of the main reasons is that they have the price advantage of API On the premise that the comprehensive production cost cannot be reduced in other aspects, the self-sufficient API will bring greater price advantage to the enterprise in the aspect of volume purchase If the enterprise does not take the initiative of API in its own hands, the situation will inevitably be passive, and it is likely to get out of the centralized purchase < br / > original title: the third batch of centralized purchase forecast! 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