The third batch of centralized procurement forecasts! What is the future road of centralized mining in the market of over 25 billion earthquakes?

Pharmaceutical network June 12 after the outbreak period, the second batch of national harvest has landed, collection of related meetings held in succession, the third batch of national harvest beganWhen will it start? Which products will be included? Will the rules change? What is the future direction of collection? Minnet will be pre-judged based on exclusive data.
The May 14-15 meeting at the Shanghai Pharmaceutical Institute was considered to be an important signal for the third batch of national collection, and the network message showed that a new batch of national picks could be launched as soon as July, involving the statistics of the catalogue of varieties as of the end of JuneHowever, affected by the outbreak, the second batch of collection of some varieties of supply is difficult, and in the new batch of collection before landing need to do three high-value supplies of national collection, so whether the third batch of collection time will be delayed to be further confirmed.
At present, the national collection experienced 3 rounds of 2 batches, the winning bid rules are maturing4 plus 7 sets to the lowest price selection, commitment to a single source, the alliance procurement allows the lowest price of 3 home selection, the second batch of collection N-1 after the shortlist allowed a maximum of 6 home selection, and the development of the lowest price 1.8 times the fuse mechanismIt is reported that the third batch of collection compared with the second batch may not have a significant change, but individual details will be fine-tuned.
In the selection of varieties, the competitive conditions are sufficient, in public medical institutions terminal sales high (including low unit price but large amount of use of varieties), belong to the national medical insurance or base medicine, the original research and imitation price difference is larger, has passed the patent period or patent challenges successful varieties, the probability of inclusion in the third batch of collection is relatively high.
In the full understanding of competitive conditions, the industry has two main views, one is based on the shanghai pharmaceutical industry held a meeting in the previous period, think that the third batch of large probability will follow the second batch of collection of 3 and above competition model, that is, 2 and above over-evaluation enterprises , 1 original research;
As of June 10, 282 varieties (257 generic-name drugs) had been approved or treated as consistent evaluations, and 71 varieties (58 generic drugs) had been included in the first and second batch of drugs, according to Minet.comOf the remaining 211 varieties (199 generic drugs), 38 varieties (31 generic drugs) have been evaluated by 3 or more enterprises, and 58 varieties (52 generic drugs) have been evaluated by 2 enterprises.
Guess one: 3 and more drugs included in the evaluation If in accordance with the spirit of the National Health Insurance Conference at the beginning of this year (January 10), the focus on the selection of high sales, each batch to ensure at least 25 varieties, each variety of enterprises up to 3 and above, then there are currently 31 generic drugs meet the conditions, of which metformin oral often release agent type, metformin requiputive agent impurities temporarily not resolved, attingre elongated The remaining 28 drugs have a higher chance of being included.
Table 1: The number of enterprises rated up to 3 and above generic name drugs Note: sales of less than 30 million use - representatives; The remaining 27 drugs are national health insurance varieties, of which 14 are national-based drugs.
28 generic drugs in 2019 in China's public medical institutions terminal sales of more than 25 billion yuan, of which 23 generic drugs sales of more than 100 million yuan, finaderide oral frequent release dosage form, tegrilo oral frequent release agent type, oxaxatan oral often-release agent type, Ogilvy The sales of 9 drugs of the oral re-release agent form of rasosin, the oral resemy agent form of cyclataine, the oral re-release agent form of anacura, the oral re-release agent type of amino glucose, the monust chewing tablet, the tansorosin retarding release agent type 9 drugs sold more than 1 billion yuan.
Figure 1: The number of enterprises rated up to 5 and above 8 generic drug evaluation enterprises up to 5 and above, Catopuri oral often release agent type competition is the most intense, there are 10 pharmaceutical enterprises have been evaluated, a total of 11 enterprises meet the competitive conditions;
Figure 2: 28 generic drugs involving 3 or more varieties of enterprises involving Yangzijiang, China Biopharmaceuticals, Shimedicine, Qilu and other 76 pharmaceutical companies (in groups), of which Yangzijiang and China Biopharmaceuticals involved in the largest number of varieties, are 5, and Shi Pharma Group with 4 drugs immediately after.
Guess two: 2 and more of the evaluation enterprises, 1 original research was included in the 4 plus 7 collection involving 31 generic drugs, the final 25 drugs won the bid; If the pursuit of each batch of collection varieties increase, then the number of the third batch of collected varieties may be between 35-40, in order to meet the 3 and above competition model, then in addition to 28 over-rated enterprises up to 3 and above drugs, some of the overrated 2 and 1 original research varieties are also expected to be included in the third batch of collection.
Minnet data show that there are currently 52 generic drug evaluation enterprises up to 2, of which 20 drugs original research products were not imported, the remaining 32 drugs, 16 drugs in 2019 China's public medical institutions terminal sales of more than 1 billion yuan, 15 varieties may be included in the collection.
Table 2: 2 drugs rated and sold by more than 1 billion yuan in the original study Note: Conditions will not necessarily be included, with a smaller probability of inclusion 15 drugs are health insurance products, 7 are national-based drugs; Hengrui Pharmaceuticals, Fosun Pharmaceuticals, Yangzijiang Pharmaceuticals, and China Biopharmaceuticals each have 4, 3, 2 and 2 drugs each;
The basic trend of future collection: normalization, diversification 1, "price reduction", "control fee" as the main tone, the future band procurement will become the normal, national mining and provincial coexistence National mining to medical institutions terminal sales high and the number of enterprises (3 and above) mainly, "expensive not much expensive", the rest of the varieties to the province to carry out Provincial mining forms are diverse, and complementary with national mining, the nine ministries jointly issued a notice that the two ministries to promote non-evaluated drug tape procurement and high-value medical supplies tape procurement pilot, it can be seen that the focus of future provincial mining will be non-evaluated drugs and high-value medical supplies.
2, dosage form will be more and more rich The 4 plus 7 set of harvesting consists of 21 oral changean forms, 3 injections, 1 bulk agent, the second batch of collection dosage forms increased, consisting of 29 oral changxuan dosage forms, 1 injection, 1 bulk, 1 chewing tablet, 1 slow-control release agent, after the sequel may introduce other new dosage forms, such as eye drops, mouth tablets, inhalants, etc.
Injection sisopage is expected to be included in a large number, at present in medical institutions chemical drug terminal sales of the majority of the varieties for injections, but limited by the difficulty of evaluation, less enterprises, has been carried out collection of only a very small number of injections A few days ago (14 May), the guidance of injection consistency evaluation landed, and the speed of the review greatly improved (received within 120 days after completion), which means that the injection evaluation will be greatly accelerated, the injection will become the focus of national mining in the future.
3, the coverage is getting wider and wider The collection covers public medical institutions in 11 pilot cities, the alliance collection variety remains unchanged, the scope is extended to 25 provinces and cities of public medical institutions, the second batch of collection clearnational national public and military hospitals must participate, private hospitals and pharmacies voluntarily participate At present, there are a number of pilot retail pharmacies into the volume procurement system, the future of the national mining big probability of retail pharmacies will also be covered, and once the retail pharmacies are included in the collection, its business model and product structure will also change.
4, apitotic drugs will become the focus of competition Some enterprises can report the "white cabbage price" in the first three rounds of collection, one of the main reasons is that enterprises have the price advantage of raw materials Under the premise that other aspects of comprehensive production costs can not be reduced, self-sub-raw materials for enterprises in the volume of procurement level to bring a greater price advantage, not the api initiative in their own hands of the enterprise, the situation is inevitably passive, is likely to be out of the collection.