The total sales of the four domestic PD-1s in the first half of the year are estimated at nearly 4 billion yuan! Domestic market, foreign investment ranking flip?

Guide: High ceiling market, China's PD-1/L1 market size is expected to reach 66.4 billion yuan in 2023.
, with Hengrui Pharmaceuticals, Xinda Bio, Baiji Shenzhou and Junshi Bio china newspaper has been disclosed, the four major domestic PD-1 sales performance in the first half of this year is also basically clear.
addition to "as always" do not disclose PD-1 sales of Hengrui Pharmaceuticals, the other three have disclosed the specific sales of their own PD-1.
01 four major domestic PD-1 first-half sales estimated at nearly 4 billion yuan according to the release of the Chinese newspaper respectively, Xinda Bio's Xindili single anti-Daboshu first-half sales of 921 million yuan, up 177.7% YoY; The state's First Half Sales were $499 million, or about 341 million yuan (US$1 at exchange rates, or RMB6.8234), while Reusi Bio's Terripley Single Resistance had first-half sales of RMB426 million.
As for the unannswered sales of Karelli pearl monoanti, some media quoted IQVIA data said that Hengrui Pharmaceutical Karelli pearl single resistance in the first half of 2020 sales exceeded The Keytruda of Mercedon, is the best-selling of the seven PD-1/PD-L1 drugs on the Chinese market, estimated at 2 billion grades.
, the market size forecast for domestic PD-1 alone in the first half of this year is likely to reach nearly 4 billion yuan.
Chart 1: Sales of the four major domestic PD-1s in 2019-2020 (billion yuan) Source: Company's financial results, Zhongkang Industrial Capital Research Center (Carelli Zhu single-resistance sales for the industry estimates, for reference only) from the PD-1 listing since the sales situation, Hengrui Pharmaceutical performance, of course, provided that the industry's PD-1 sales estimates and actual deviation.
Hengrui Pharmaceutical's Karelli Zhu single resistance is the third listed domestic PD-1, but relying on Hengrui Pharmaceutical's own strong sales capacity and leading number of adaptive disorders, it is expected that Karelli Zhu single resistance in the first half of this year occupied nearly half of the market share of domestic PD-1.
and Junshi bio's Terriple single resistance is the first domestic PD-1 listed, but whether last year or the middle of this year's sales, are not comparable to the later Creedy single resistance and Karelli pearl single resistance.
Carrelliju single resistance is no longer necessary to say, and Xinda Bio's PD-1 has health insurance, into the national health insurance directory has a clear price advantage, so that the price of the already "people-to-people" Terriple single resistance can not be compared.
this, Ripley single resistance was the first to go on the market, but due to the short time interval with several other PD-1 listings, coupled with price, adaptability, sales capacity and strategy reasons, the first-in-the-first advantage is weakened by other factors.
In-depth to specific adaptations, Junshi Bio's Ripley mono-anti-currently approved adaptations are only used to treat local progress or metastatic melanoma after the failure of previous standard treatments, and the other two adaptations - nasopharyngeal cancer and urethra skin cancer - are still in the NMPA review and approval.
market for this only approved adaptive disorder is relatively small.
According to Roche Pharmaceuticals, the incidence of melanoma in China is 0.6 per 100,000 people, according to this ratio, based on the current population of about 1.4 billion people, China's melanoma population of less than 100,000 people, the market capacity is small.
this further explains that the Terriple single resistance was first listed in the domestic PD-1, but the actual performance is not so "marketable".
fact, for The Real Creatures, which has just entered the commercial phase of a year, with only a few hundred sales teams, ThePripley single-resistance performance is already good.
As for this year's new addition Baiji Shenzhou's Tyreli Zhu single resistance, in the current already white-hot competitive landscape, for Reilly Pearl single-year listing of the strong release speed in the domestic PD-1 performance is also more prominent.
PD-1 for the treatment of classic Hodgkin's lymphoma is currently the highest of PD-1, with an ORR of 85.7% in the NCT3209973 study, surpassing Those of Xinta and far exceeding the performance of Keytruda and Opdivo.
as a Best-in-class potential PD-1, its subsequent sales capacity has yet to be tested.
02 domestic PK imports, preempting the front-line treatment path of major diseases is particularly critical for domestic PD-1, there is also competitive pressure from imported PD-1.
as the two major PD-1 pioneers in the global market, Mercadon's K drug Pabli pearl monoantitor and BMS's O drug Navuliyu monoantitor have to be concerned.
The company reported a 38 per cent rise in global revenues of $6,672m in the first half of the year, while in China it reported a 14 per cent rise in revenues of $1,657m.
's performance in the first half of the year was less positive, with BMS reporting global revenues of $3,419m in the first half of the year, just half of that of K drugs, and revenues down 6 per cent year-on-year.
Chart 2: Sales of O and K Drugs 2015-2020 (US$100 million) Source: Merca East Results, BMS Results, Zhongkang Industrial Capital Research Center Although neither company directly disclosed PD-1 sales in the Chinese market in the China report, but we combine the above information and K and O drugs sales in the Chinese market last year, we can get some general judgment.
2019, K-drug in the domestic market has completed the full coverage of NSCLC first-line treatment, the annual sales are expected to exceed 2 billion yuan, while O-drug sales in China is expected to be no more than 1 billion yuan.
So it is likely that The first half of this year's domestic sales of Henrui Pharmaceuticals' Karelli Pearl Monoantiton exceeded that of K Medicine, which is also consistent with what IQVIA data above calls "The Karelli Pearl Single Resistance is the best-selling of the seven PD-1/PD-L1 drugs in the Chinese market in the first half of 2020".
the local PD-1 Karelli Pearl single resistance to achieve corner acceleration, or even temporarily in the market leader.
of course, K-drug's position in the global market is still unshakable.
the PD-1 series of market sales data behind the mapping of the results of each adaptive layout.
Just as O drug is the first PD-1 antibody drug approved in the field of tumor immunotherapy, but the reason why it will be K drug to achieve anti-super, precisely because K drug in the field of lung cancer, especially in the first-line treatment has won, Hengrui medicine's victory also revealed the impact of this factor.
So, in order to occupy a clinical and market advantage in the segmentation of tumors, product launch or adaptation approval time is important, but the first to seize the front-line treatment path of major diseases is the most critical competitive element.
e.g. lung cancer, liver cancer due to the number of cases, is expected to be the largest adaptive disease, the market size of about 9 billion yuan / year, and Hengrui PD-1 in the field of lung cancer, liver cancer have been approved the corresponding adaptation.
It is worth mentioning that, recently, Hengrui also submitted the Karelli pearl single anti-combined cisplatin and Gissythadan first-line treatment of local recurrence or distant metastatic nasopharyngeal cancer adaptation application, and is to be included in the priority review and approval, which is Hengrui Pharmaceutical PD-1 5th adaptive.
, according to Hengrui Pharmaceutical's announcement, so far, the cumulative investment in research and development costs of carelli pearl monoantigen has been nearly 1.118 billion yuan.
Chart 3: Domestic 6 PD-1 Adaptive Layout (Statistics Phase II and above Clinical Trials Only) Source: Zhongtai Securities, Zhongkang Industrial Capital Research Center Chart 4: PD-1 Single Resistance Market, Size Measurement Source: China Industrial Information Network 03 High Ceiling Market, 2023 China's PD-1/L1 market size is expected to reach 66.4 billion yuan from the product space, reference to the current approved sales of 6 enterprises PD-1, especially its sales in the first year of domestic listing, are in the 5-1 billion yuan volume range, which shows that the PD-1 product market ceiling is high.
the global market for anti-PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors will reach $16.3 billion in 2018 and is expected to reach $63.9 billion in 2023, according to Frost Sullivan.
with the approval of PD-1 monoants in the Chinese market since 2018, china's PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitor market is expected to reach 66.4 billion yuan in 2023 and grow to 98.8 billion yuan in 2030.
Chart 5: China's PD-1 and PD-L1 inhibitor market size forecast Source: Fuhong Hanxuan prospecto, Zhongkang Industrial Capital Research Center's huge market imagination space has brought about a competitive layout of enterprises.
nearly two years, the domestic PD-1 single resistance progress is very rapid.
In addition to the above four domestic PD-1 enterprises, Kangfang Bio/China Biopharmaceuticals, Yuheng Pharmaceuticals, Jia and Bio's PD-1 have all submitted applications for listing, Fosun Pharma, Shenzhou Cells, Keystone Pharmaceuticals PD-1 are in phase III clinical stage.
PD-1 in China will usher in the second tier of the listing boom.
these PD-1 companies in addition to the adaptive competition, price competition is inevitable.
present, a new round of national medical insurance drug catalog adjustment is in the declaration stage, compared with previous years, this year's medical insurance catalog adjustment policy in the scope of adjustment, mode, procedures and other aspects have a relatively large change.
, the negotiation of innovative drugs to implement a more stringent threshold, enterprises in greater autonomy at the same time will be more intense competition.
For PD-1 products, including O-drug, K-drug, Henri's Karelli pearl mono-resistance, Junshi's Terriple single-resistance and Baiji Shenzhou's Tyrelli Pearl single-resistance, it is expected that there will be a fierce battle for health insurance.
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