The transmission path, variation and outbreak prediction study of the virus.

A 61-year-old South Korean man was diagnosed with MerS and treated in isolation after returning from a trip to Kuwait, foreign media reported.
in 2015, MERS killed 36 people in South Korea.
the spread of the virus must rely on the medium, human activities is one of the ways of virus transmission, birds, bats and other activities are also the transmission of the virus.
by capturing the vector's activity, can you figure out the path of action of the virus and draw a visual "flight network" for the virus? Recently held at the 2018 World Influenza Congress, a number of scholars reported on the relevant research, through the tracking of migratory birds, poultry, to obtain the transmission of the virus, and speculate out the virus community's "kinship" relationship, that is, how to mutate, and then predict the outbreak.
viruses come with their own migration "timestamp" migration process of virus synchronization in the ladder evolution. Tian Waiyu, a researcher at the Institute of Global Change and Earth System Scienceats at Beijing Normal University,
said the migration, spread and evolution of the virus family took place simultaneously.
the deification of the virus has been "time-stamped" for the spread of the virus.
obtainthets of different viruses based on genetic analysis, and can push back the path of their spread.
so the affinity of the virus can be used to determine which path different "branches" have taken in evolution.
by tracking the H5N1 avian influenza virus, which has been circulating in recent years, Tian Huaiyu's team found that the virus collected in the East Asian migration belt is higher in kinship, while the central Asian migration belt is also the same, and the virus in Mongolia and the two viruses above are related, sampling site is also the two migration zone sesame.
for example, the "circle of friends" drawn from viral kinship and the long-standing migration belt in geosciences are highly overlapping.
it's not just a coincidence that the team began to speculate that the spread of the bird flu virus had a specific "flight network."
migratory bird channels match the genetic flow of the virus because of the spread of avian influenza over long distances, the twice-yearly migration of wild birds can cause the virus to spread rapidly.
team began tracking migratory birds to confirm their guesses.
" we chose four species of wild birds based on their population and survivability. "We used GPS devices to record the migration behavior of 56 birds, " said Tian Waiyu,
.
current recorded data show that the rate of migratory bird migration is highly correlated with the rate of outbreak and spread between different countries.
" at the same time, the team traced the eight fragments of the virus to the source, using "time stamps" to give the connection between places.
", "In Asia, the spread of the virus is not random, east-west transmission is very rare, mainly in the north-south transmission.
, said Tian Waiyu, and the time space in which the virus spreads is consistent with migration channels.
more detailed studies show that the migration time, space and sequence of each group of migratory birds best explain the flow of viral genetic flows. The
team built 1,000 network models based on viral genome sequences and matched migratory migration paths with migratory birds.
" a significant portion of the model shows that the sequence of virus migration is quite consistent with the migration of migratory birds in time, space and order.
," Tian said.
but not all avian influenza virus migration is highly consistent with migratory bird migration, Tian explained: "Only 20% of the strains of avian influenza isolated in wild birds, there are other drivers driving the spread of the virus."
"accurately predictthe the evolutionary path of viruses" H7N9 was once thought to be prevalent in the Yangtze And Pearl River Delta regions.
, said Tian, but the model predicts it will spread to the west and north. the discovery of H7N9 in Xi'an, Shaanxi province, in
2014 confirmed the accurate prediction of Tian's team.
"Our poultry flows are divided into three levels, including producers, retailers and consumers.
"Based on the flow chart of poultry trade, the team of Beijing Normal University studied the space-time patterns of avian influenza outbreaks and the effects of vaccines on virus evolution using systematic analysis, geospatial technology and time series models.
", "What we capture is often a branch of the virus evolution tree, a moment in the process of diffraction."
" Tian Said said that previous research methods, because of sampling leakage, sampling point data between the data is not continuous enough, it is difficult to see the entire transmission of the virus process.
using methods such as system occurring analysis, geospatial technology and time series models can restore a process of instantaneous, by incorporating other factors, and then discover the dynamic mobile network of viruses.
100 years ago, the pandemic, known as the "global plague of the century", killed 50 million people.
influenza is not a common cold, but a serious infectious disease, and humans are threatened and threatened by seasonal influenza, influenza pandemics and animal influenza.
predicting influenza outbreak has been an unsolved problem, a new combination of geographic informatics and molecular biology technology means that through the study of communication carriers, it is possible to connect from point to point and connect to the network, which is expected to help humans figure out the "flight network" of the virus.
Source: Science Daily.