The trend of aluminum fell and the release of production capacity limited upward momentum

Macro: On the 20th local time, the two parties in the United States finally reached a $900 billion relief bill, which will provide funds and epidemic-related assistance to the government; The US vaccine was approved and began vaccination last week, and countries such as Canada have also put large-scale vaccination on the agenda; At 3:00 a.
m.
Beijing time last Thursday (December 17), the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced its latest interest rate decision, keeping the benchmark interest rate unchanged in the range of 0%-0.
25%, the excess reserve ratio (IOER) unchanged at 0.
1%, and the discount rate unchanged at 0.
25%, in line with the market's general expectations
.

On the supply side: China's average daily production of primary aluminum in November reached a record high
.
According to data from the Bureau of Statistics, China's primary aluminum production in November increased from a year earlier, with average daily production hitting a record high, and more smelting capacity came online
amid strong demand and high aluminum prices.
Demand side: Domestic terminal demand for automobiles, photovoltaics and household appliances is strong
.

Stocks: LME stocks increased by 23,325 tonnes to 1,390,400 tonnes yesterday, stocks last week dematerialized by 1,875 tonnes to 212,700 tonnes, and warehouse receipts fell 2,682 tonnes to 67,984 tonnes
.
According to the data on December 21, the accumulation of social stocks is 06,000 tons, compared with the statistics on December 17, which is 604,000 tons
.
Overall, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory is still at a low level, which still supports the price
.

Overall, in terms of raw materials, alumina prices still maintain a low level of about 2300 yuan, the current electrolytic aluminum industry profit has reached more than 3000 yuan, from a historical perspective production profits are still in a high position, and high profits have continued for a long time
.
On the demand side, China's downstream automotive and infrastructure data performed strongly in November, indicating that China's economy maintained its recovery momentum and domestic market demand performed better
.

In the future, the supply side with the acceleration of aluminum enterprise investment and production, the supply side capacity is further released, while the downstream start remains stable, the new production capacity in December further released to form a certain suppression of electrolytic aluminum prices, limiting the upward momentum of aluminum prices, but China's low social inventory still supports aluminum prices
to a certain extent.