The trend of economic activity is good, and rubber oscillations are upward

Spot market: On January 12, the quotation of full latex was 12300 yuan / ton (-225), the quotation of mixed rubber was 10775 yuan / ton (-50), the price of 3L spot was 11625 yuan / ton (-125), the price of STR20# was 1415 US dollars / ton (-10), and the quotation of benzene butadiene was 10900 yuan / ton (+200).

Thai raw materials: raw film 44.
20 baht/kg (0), cup glue 39.
25 baht/kg (0), glue 44.
20 baht/kg (+0.
20), tobacco film 47.
30 baht/kg (+0.
05).

Domestic raw materials: Yunnan glue 10800 yuan / ton (0), Hainan glue 11350 yuan / ton (0).

As of January 6: total stock on the exchange 186744 (+42), exchange warehouse receipt 178770 (+5000).

As of January 12, the domestic all-steel tire operating rate was 36.
96% (-7.
29%), and the domestic semi-steel tire operating rate was 42.
64% (-8.
88%)
.

Viewpoint: On the supply side, the rainfall in the main producing areas of Southeast Asia decreased slightly, which is conducive to cutting, and the supply of raw materials is expected to increase, except for southern Thailand, the supply pressure in other major producing areas has weakened, and the price of mainstream raw materials continues to rise steadily; On the demand side, the suspension of production during the Spring Festival holiday dragged the operating rate to continue to decline, and the operating rate of all-steel and semi-steel fell sharply; In terms of inventory, social inventory continues to accumulate, RU01 prices are higher, bulls have the willingness to receive goods, and higher delivery profits stimulate the increase in warehouse receipt registration, paying attention to the actual delivery next week; Recently, crude oil prices have continued to rise, and the price of synthetic rubber such as benzenebutine has increased slightly in raw material costs; The global supply of natural rubber is gradually shrinking, the trend of economic activity is improving, and the rubber shock is rising
.