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On Monday, market divergence intensified as financial markets put pressure on concerns about the mutation of the new coronavirus and the further spread of the epidemic, most domestic and foreign commodity futures closed lower, and the non-ferrous metals sector diverged
.
As of 14:40, Shanghai copper futures Cu2102 was quoted at 58800 yuan / ton, up 0.
94%, and international copper futures Bc2103 was reported at 52360 yuan / ton, up 1.
04%.
Spot: the average price of 1# electrolytic copper last week ran at 57,570 yuan / ton to 58,350 yuan / ton, and the average premium quotation fluctuated sharply last week, operating in the range of -160 yuan / ton to +115 yuan / ton
.
Last week's sharp fluctuations in the premium also partly reflected that the market may be quite divergent
about the outlook for the future market under the current relatively high copper price.
In the second half of the week, the inquiry began to decrease, the quotation began in the range of 20-30 yuan / ton of premium, most of the large-scale enterprises are in the closing stage, but there are still some traders who continue to exchange cash at the high, and it is difficult to find a deal
with the rapid reduction of the premium.
On the macro front, the current global low interest rate and ultra-loose monetary policy are still more likely to continue in the future, which is a very favorable factor for commodities, and as far as Fed monetary policy is concerned, there are no conditions for immediate change in the current ultra-loose monetary policy in the future, so the dollar rally may not be sustainable
.
On the fundamental side, the CSPT team finalized the copper concentrate processing fee floor price for the first quarter of 2021 at $53/mt and $5.
3/lb, down $5 and 0.
5 cents from the fourth quarter of 2020, and the future supply is still difficult to say loose
.
On the demand side, as the most important demand country, China is currently the most effective country in controlling the new crown epidemic
.
Therefore, it is expected that the probability of sustained recovery of domestic economic activity in 2021 is relatively high
.
In addition, the country's 14th Five-Year Plan attaches importance to the new energy sector, and will continue to support the demand for copper varieties
.