The trend of Shanghai aluminum is generally volatile, looking forward to the guidance of the consumption season

Last Monday's Fed decision sent a dovish signal, in line with market expectations, to keep interest rates close to zero unchanged and said it would keep interest rates low until 2023
.

On the supply side, aluminum enterprises have steadily released production capacity, Yunnan Hongtai has been powered on since early September, and recently Weiqiao Yunnan project has also begun to put into production, production capacity has accelerated, electrolytic aluminum operating rate continues to rise, and there is a loose trend
on the supply side.

On the cost side, the cost of alumina rose, and the profit margin narrowed to 12,719 yuan
.
In terms of premium discount, domestic spot maintained a high premium of 120 yuan / ton, and the discount range of aluminum continued to expand slightly to 39.
75 US dollars, continuing to maintain a high level
.

In terms of stocks, LME stocks continued to fall by 2,250 tons to 1,504,200 tons, the previous inventory fell by 2,275 tons to 249,000 tons, and the social bank fell by 22,000 tons to 737,000 tons according to the data on September 14, and the social electrolytic aluminum inventory finally met the inflection point
after rising for several periods.

Overall, in terms of raw materials, alumina prices bottomed out, the current profits of the electrolytic aluminum industry have shrunk but are still at a high level, the demand side has entered the September consumption season, and demand is expected
to improve marginally.
The overseas economy is in the recovery stage, the economic data has improved, and we are paying close attention to the emergence
of the inflection point of the epidemic.

From the perspective of the future market, the supply side accelerates with the resumption of production of aluminum enterprises, the production capacity of the supply side is further released, while the downstream start remains stable, and the demand side is looking forward to the guidance of the peak consumption season of gold, silver and ten, and the supply and demand are expected
to be prosperous.
It is expected that the trend of aluminum prices will still be dominated by range
shocks.
Operationally, it is recommended to speculate long orders to hold cautiously, set protective stop losses, chase long and pay attention to the risk of high and large fluctuations, and new orders are recommended to wait and see
.