The trend of the main contract of Shanghai copper rises, and short-term volatility is expected to be strong

Market focus: On Tuesday, local time, US President Trump will deliver a speech at a luncheon hosted by the Economic Club of New York with the theme of "Trade and Economic Policy"
.
Chile's copper exports fell 10.
7 percent to 1.
6 million mt in the first nine months of this year, down from 1.
8 million mt
in the same period last year.
Chile's copper exports in October hit their lowest record
since April 2017.
According to SMM data, China's electrolytic copper production in October was 783,000 tons, up 3.
12% month-on-month and 8.
66% year-on-year, and production is expected to rise to 786,600 tons
in November.

Spot analysis: On November 12, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 47150-47200 yuan / ton, with an average price of 47175 yuan / ton, down 195 yuan / ton
per day.
The enthusiasm of market inquiry is high, the downstream maintains rigid demand, the low transaction is slightly improved compared with the previous day, close to the end of the market, the willingness of holders to hold up the price is stronger, there is almost no price difference between brands, making it difficult for traders to make a difference, and the market supply and demand still show stalemate and
tug-of-war.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 65,198 tons on Tuesday, a daily decrease of 3,507 tons; On November 11, LME copper stocks were 234,200 tons, down 1,750 tons per day, and fell for 8 consecutive days
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2001 contract were 59054 lots, a daily increase of 2415 lots, short positions were 67415 lots, a daily increase of 3004 lots, a net short position of 8361 lots, a daily increase of 589 lots, long and short increases, and net space increased
.

Market research and judgment: On November 12, the main force of Shanghai copper in 2001 fluctuated up
.
The U.
S.
dollar index continued to run high, while China's refined copper production in October increased month-on-month, which is expected to maintain growth in the future, and weak demand performance, putting pressure on copper prices, but the Sino-US trade situation is more optimistic, market risk sentiment has recovered, and it is necessary to pay attention to Trump's speech, coupled with the decline in Chilean copper mine production and the decline in China's scrap copper imports, which has strong support for copper prices
.
In terms of spot, the market inquiry enthusiasm is high, the downstream maintains rigid demand, the low transaction is slightly improved compared with the previous day, close to the tail market, the willingness of holders to hold the price premium is stronger, and the market supply and demand still show stalemate and
tug-of-war.
Technically, the main 2001 contract daily MACD green column of Shanghai copper is flat, and there is support below the 47000 position, and short-term volatility is expected to be strong
.
Operationally, it is recommended that the Shanghai copper 2001 contract can be long around 47200 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 47000 yuan / ton
.