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Copper prices dragged down last week as the escalating trade dispute between China and the United States, but benefited from the sharp depreciation of the yuan, and Shanghai copper performed slightly better than London copper
.
With the landing of follow-up risks and the rest of the world have successively cut interest rates, market sentiment has been repaired, and copper prices have stabilized and adjusted
.
At present, the domestic demand off-season supply is sufficient, the contradiction is not prominent, copper prices are still dominated by macro pricing, with the marginal repair of the macro environment, and the continuous disturbance of the mine end, copper prices are expected to show a stable adjustment trend
.
Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term, based on the expectation of macroeconomic weakness, the trend operation is still dominated by rebound and short
selling.
On the macro front, the export data in July was better than expected, but in the context of the global economic downturn and continuous trade frictions, the future export data is still not optimistic, and the downward trend of China's economy is difficult to change
.
The PBOC's second quarter monetary policy implementation report recalls countercyclical adjustment
.
And the start of global central bank monetary easing is also good for copper prices
.
In terms of fundamentals, spot copper concentrate TC is sluggish, but the copper concentrate preparation of smelters in the third quarter has mostly ended, and it is difficult to cause smelters to suffer production damage in the short term due to raw material pressure, and sulfuric acid prices have rebounded, which slightly eases
the production pressure on smelters.
Macro and fundamentals have not changed much, and the current consumption is in the off-season, and copper prices have insufficient momentum
.
It is expected that copper prices will fluctuate at a low level, and it is recommended that long positions opened at the previous low level can be held on the sidelines, and the price will return to the low level and then buy
.
On the supply and demand side, Glencore's closure of the Mutanda copper-cobalt mine has led to increasingly tight copper supply and pressure on processing fees
.
However, the recent domestic smelter stocking in the third quarter has been basically completed, so the processing fee has little impact on it in the short term, coupled with the impact of lack of maintenance, output will continue to be released, and terminal demand is still in a downward trend, and the current consumption off-season, copper accumulation pressure has increased
.
In summary, under the background of economic downturn and trade frictions, the downward trend of terminal demand is difficult to change, and the production of refined copper is gradually released, and the possibility of copper accumulation is greater, so copper prices still have downward pressure, but domestic counter-cyclical adjustment and global central bank monetary easing are beneficial to copper prices, and low precision waste price difference supports copper prices, so copper prices have limited downward space
.
Strategically, it is recommended that short orders of Shanghai copper be held
with caution.
