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    Home > Chemicals Industry > Petrochemical News > The two major expectations joined forces to put pressure, and oil market bulls waited for this data to save the field

    The two major expectations joined forces to put pressure, and oil market bulls waited for this data to save the field

    • Last Update: 2023-03-19
    • Source: Internet
    • Author: User
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    On Wednesday (December 15) in the European market, oil prices fell for the third consecutive day, and U.
    crude oil futures fell more than 1.
    5%, piercing the $70 mark
    Supply growth is increasingly expected to outpace demand growth next year, with the IEA's expectations for the outlook for the oil market on Tuesday raising concerns and U.
    API data showing that crude inventories fell less than expected
    During the day, investors will continue to pay attention to EIA crude oil inventory movement data, which analysts expect to decline
    from the previous week.

    The expectations of the two institutions are in sharp contrast, and the oil market is facing high volatility in the short term

    On Tuesday (December 14), the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that the surge in new crown cases and the emergence of the Omicron variant will weaken global demand
    for oil.
    At the same time, crude oil production will increase, especially in the United States, as supply exceeds demand at least until the end of
    next year.
    On the contrary, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) raised its world oil demand forecast for the first quarter of 2022 on the 17th

    ANZ commodity analysts said in a note: "The IEA's pessimistic view of the market contrasts with the more positive view of OPEC when it released its monthly outlook earlier this week
    This discrepancy suggests that volatility is likely to remain elevated in the near term.

    Energy consultancy FGE said it had a more optimistic outlook for the future than the IEA, which projected a surplus of 400,000 barrels per day due to relatively low demand risks for Omicron, compared with the IEA's estimate of 1.
    7 million barrels
    per day in the first quarter.

    API inventories fell less than expected, and EIA data may decline

    Another factor driving oil prices down was industry data showing that U.
    crude inventories fell less than expected
    last week.
    crude inventories fell by 815,000 barrels in the week ended Dec.
    10, compared with analysts' expectations of a 2.
    1 million barrel
    decline, according to the American Petroleum Institute (API).

    However, distillate inventories fell by 1 million barrels, below analysts' forecast of 700,000 barrels of growth, and gasoline inventories increased by 426,000 barrels, lower than expected

    According to a survey, the data released by the US Department of Energy at 23:30 Beijing time on Wednesday (December 15) is expected to decline in US crude oil inventories from the previous week
    oil inventories are expected to shrink by 2 million barrels
    in the week ended Dec.
    10, according to estimates by 11 analysts and traders.
    All 11 analysts forecast a decline in crude oil production, which is expected to fall by 500,000 to 4 million barrels

    Analysts expect gasoline inventories to rise by 1.
    2 million barrels
    from last week.
    It is expected to decrease by 2 million barrels to an increase of 3.
    5 million barrels
    Distillate inventories, including heating oil and diesel, are expected to rise by only 100,000 barrels
    from last week.
    Forecasts range from a decrease of 3.
    6 million barrels to an increase of 2.
    9 million barrels

    Water use at refineries could rise 0.
    5 percentage points from the previous week to 90.
    3 percent
    of capacity.
    Forecasts range from a decline of 0.
    1 percentage points to an increase of 1.
    3 percentage points

    With the Fed meeting just around the corner, the prospect of a stronger dollar weighed on oil prices

    Markets are awaiting the results of the Fed's policy meeting, scheduled for 3:00 a.
    Beijing time on Thursday, looking for signs
    of when the Fed is likely to raise interest rates.
    Despite the uncertainty surrounding Omicron, the unemployment rate and inflation rate in the United States have exceeded the Fed's latest forecast released in September, and policymakers must now keep up with economic and market trends
    The Fed is expected to announce an accelerated end to its bond-buying program during the pandemic and hint at a shift to interest rate hikes next year to guard against soaring

    JPMorgan economist Michael Feroli wrote in a note that policymakers' new forecasts "will generally show lower unemployment and rising inflation, which will prompt the Federal Reserve to raise its short-term policy rate by 0.
    25 percentage points
    starting in June.
    " We think the likelihood of two or three rate hikes in 2022 is close, but we think three rate hikes are more likely.

    In the European market on Wednesday (December 15), oil prices fell for the third consecutive trading day, and U.
    crude oil futures fell below the $70 mark.
    In addition to concerns about oversupply, expectations that the Fed's decision will be hawkish also boosted the prospect
    of a possible strengthening of the dollar.
    It has also put pressure on oil prices, which have made dollar-denominated commodities more expensive
    for other countries.

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