The upstream and downstream of the photovoltaic industry are in a dual-day situation. The expansion of capacity is concentrated in the downstream or the main reason

When market changes and mature market thinking diverge, the first thing people have to do is to verify the changes, not to revise their thinking.

Based on the most basic market thinking of "commodity prices are not only determined by cost, but also determined by both supply and demand (the price is determined only after the transaction is completed)", we examine the downstream of the photovoltaic industry to "upstream blindly shifting cost pressure downwards.

But in reality, even if the operating rate of domestic projects (photovoltaic power plants) in the first and second quarters is likely to fall short of expectations, the downstream has "grudges" the supply chain, but downstream demand (cells, modules) really supports silicon materials and wafers.

According to the above, if the “supply and demand relationship determines the price”, then the only thing that can explain this strange phenomenon is that the production of batteries and modules can still be maintained above the operating cost line, or the photovoltaic industry chain is following another Unusual, "supply and demand relationship that is not easy to be seen".

In addition to complaints about the supply chain, what is even more intriguing is that just as the photovoltaic industry’s macroeconomic trend of "carbon peak and carbon neutrality" seems to be a smooth road, recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the "Photovoltaic Manufacturing Industry Standard Conditions (2021 edition).

Immediately afterwards, Gao Jifan, the second chairman of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association and the chairman of Trina Solar, also gave a meaningful speech in which he pointedly pointed out that "the coordinated development ecology of the upstream and downstream of the industry has not been formed.

Silicon pricing power

Not in the hands of silicon companies

In the industry's condemnation of the supply chain, silicon materials, as the most upstream of the photovoltaic industry chain, and the manufacturing link with the largest profit margin at present, have become the main spearhead.

　　According to the latest weekly polysilicon price report issued by the Silicon Industry Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, the latest price range of single crystal compound feed materials (from March 25 to March 31, the same below) is between 125,000 yuan/ton and 135,000 yuan/ton.
The average transaction price was 131,800 yuan/ton; the price range of single crystal dense materials was 123,000 yuan/ton -133,000 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price was 128,000 yuan/ton.

　　As a result, although the latest polysilicon price increase has narrowed compared to before, it still reached 2%-5% month-on-month.
Considering that in the first week of this year (December 30, 2020-January 6, 2021), the average transaction price of single crystal compound material is 87,600 yuan/ton, the cumulative increase in the price of single crystal compound material in the past three months has exceeded 50 %.

　　Under the support of this price, Bloomberg New Energy Finance senior analyst Jiang Yali told the "Securities Daily" reporter that according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance, the current gross profit margin of the silicon material (polysilicon) segment can reach 60%.

　　A person from a leading silicon material company confirmed this gross profit rate to a reporter from the Securities Daily.
He explained: "A 60% gross profit margin can only be achieved by a handful of state-of-the-art production capacity, and most of the general production capacity can only be maintained.
Around 20%-30%.
"

　　However, the person particularly emphasized: "Even if there is a 60% gross profit, the price is determined by the relationship between supply and demand, that is, the pricing power of silicon materials is never really in the hands of silicon material companies.
Silicon material companies sign agreements with downstream silicon wafer companies The long-term agreement (long-term purchase agreement) "locks the quantity and does not lock the price", each month, both parties will sit down and negotiate the price of the next batch of silicon materials.
"

　　It is worthwhile to integrate that, according to the "Securities Daily" reporter, the Silicon Industry Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association will track changes in market silicon material prices every week.
And the quotation in the last week of each month (for example, from March 25 to March 31, the price range of single crystal compound feeding was 125,000 yuan/ton-135,000 yuan/ton), it is precisely the silicon material companies and silicon wafer companies that The purchase price for the next month (April) negotiated under the Long-term Association.

　　There are few middlemen in the silicon material market

　　The upstream and downstream situation is twofold

　　Recently, the industry has also analyzed the view of silicon material prices: "At least 20% of polysilicon materials are in the hands of middlemen.
" The stocking of middlemen is the driving force behind the rise in silicon material prices.

　　But this view cannot stand up to scrutiny.
"Middlemen can only survive in areas where the market has demand for them.
" In the opinion of the above-mentioned leading silicon material companies, "At present, 100% of the production capacity of several leading silicon material companies is locked by the long-term cooperation of silicon wafer companies.
There is no such thing here.
The living space of middlemen.
Looking at the domestic silicon material market, even if it is outside the supply of about 90% locked by the Long-term Association, considering the shortage of silicon materials today, there is almost no living space for middlemen.
"

　　"In the silicon material market, the only possibility of intermediaries is a small part of the import demand.
Because most of the imports are also locked by the domestic silicon wafer companies through the long-term cooperation.
Only a small part of the supply is unstable or in Re-export trade in the gray zone may have demand for middlemen.
” The leading silicon material company said, “The global solar-grade silicon material production capacity is about 560,000 tons (mainly concentrated in China), of which overseas production capacity is only about about 560,000 tons.
100,000 tons.
Based on this calculation, the middleman’s silicon material cannot exceed 10% of the market.
What’s more inconsistent with the basic economic logic is that if the price of imported silicon material is less than 10%, even 20% of the imported silicon material price, how could it affect 80% of the market.
% Silicon pricing?"

　　In addition, there are also opinions that, as the downstream of silicon materials and silicon wafers, battery companies have managed to overcome the high cost of silicon wafer procurement and inventory due to non-silicon costs and other considerations, but still maintain full production and have not transmitted the market upwards.
Real demand (component cost pressure and power station operating rate) is also one of the incentives for the continued increase in prices of silicon materials and wafers.

　　“。”《》：“，、‘’，，、。，、，，。”

　　，，20%-60%，30%。“、，。，。”。

　　，、，，，。

　　，，“（4/，26.
3/），0.
011/（0.
07228/）。，，。”。

　　“，。，、、，、，。”《》。

　　，，，，“”，，。

　　，，，《》，，；，，。

　　“，。”。

　　，，，，3。

　　，“，”。：“，，”。

　　，（），、，（、）？

　　“，、。”，“，，，（、、），，、、，。”

　　，，“”，（）“”，，“”。

　　“，2021，。”，，“，，，。”

　　“”。，2020，4000。，、。

　　，2020，360。400MW，140GW；2020500，200GW，。

　　《》，202158（193GW），、、400GW、380GW-400GW、400GW，，20201160GW-200GW（5%）。

　　“、，。” 。（ ）

：