The upward force of Shanghai-aluminum narrow range oscillation will gradually weaken

In terms of news, due to the Russian-Ukrainian war, the West, led by the United States, has successively introduced sanctions
against Russia.
But there are reports: given that there is already a serious shortage of aluminum, the Biden administration will not impose sanctions on Russia for the time being that could lead to the disruption of global aluminum supplies
.
In addition, the LME announced that none of the enterprises and individuals currently sanctioned are members of
the LME or LME Clear.

In terms of inventory, on Thursday, aluminum stocks in major domestic regions totaled 1.
099 million tons, an increase of 60,000 tons
from last Thursday.
After the Spring Festival this year, the accumulation of electrolytic aluminum is similar to previous years, and there is no abnormality, and the current domestic aluminum inventory is at a medium level
.
LME aluminum inventories totaled 824,000 tonnes on Thursday, down 31,000 tonnes from last Thursday, LME aluminium inventories remain low and show no signs
of sustained accumulation.

On Thursday, the average price of the domestic alumina market was 3247 yuan / ton, which has shown signs of
falling.
It is understood that the current spot quotation of alumina in the northern region has been discounted by more than 100 yuan
.
The Winter Olympics have ended, the alumina operating capacity in the northern region is gradually recovering, but some areas are still under control, in addition, the epidemic prevention and control in Bose has been liberalized, overall, the domestic supply of alumina is picking up, and it is expected that the price of alumina will gradually fall
.

As of the end of January, China's electrolytic aluminum has a completed production capacity of 47.
805 million tons, an operating capacity of 39.
001 million tons, and an operating rate of 81.
6%, up 0.
8 percentage points
from the previous month.
In January, the resumption of electrolytic aluminum production capacity continued, and the resumption of production areas was mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, Shanxi, Yunnan and other places, and the resumption of production capacity mainly came from the reduction of production capacity
in the early stage.
In the first quarter, it is expected that the scale of resumption of production will reach about 1.
2 million tons, and this part of the production will be released
in the second quarter.

Near-term domestic electrolytic aluminum supply side interference will have a significant weakening, on the one hand, because electrolytic aluminum smelting profits are at a high level, with the end of the dry period in Yunnan, Yunnan electrolytic aluminum resumption of production will be greater, on the other hand, the Winter Olympics is about to end, the northern region of alumina production restrictions will be lifted, the current alumina price has fallen
.
Overall, supply-side interference is easing, and it is expected that the upward force of aluminum prices will gradually weaken, and there is a possibility
of peaking.