The user is cold, is plant meat a false demand?

In February, the article "The Magical Reality of Artificial Meat: Capital Is Popular, Users Are Cold" was widely circulated, and anyone who pays attention to this field should have read it.
I believe that many people must have such doubts in their hearts, is plant meat a false demand? Is it a capital bubble?

I hope that after reading this article, readers can have an answer that can convince themselves.

I have watched a lot in the plant meat industry, and talked less.

I only shared the technical challenges of plant meat development once in May last year.
Looking back on the past year, I feel that it is necessary to reflect and review the situation.
I also take this opportunity to communicate with all upstream and downstream counterparts in the plant meat industry, as well as capital and institutions that pay attention to plant meat.
Combining the observed problems in the industry, I summarized the lessons and thoughts of the past two years into 5 points, and sincerely share them with you.

1.

Seek truth from facts: don't be blinded by false things

2.

A clear goal: more and more like "delicious meat"

3.

Face the problem: consumers think the product is not good enough

4.

The principle first: ask why first, then discuss the solution

5.

Value creation: Behavior that does not create value is called speculation

Seek truth from facts:

Seek truth from facts:

Don't be blinded by false things

Don't be blinded by false things

Seeking truth from facts has two implications.

Seeking truth from facts has two implications.

The first is not to lie to yourself.

That's how it is said, but in fact, it is very difficult for people not to lie to themselves.
They need to continuously learn, communicate with others, and even more need courage to deny themselves.

Another important meaning is to build the foundation of business on facts, not illusions.

We certainly do not live in a purely rational world.
The illusion cannot be eliminated, but it will be constantly replaced by new illusions, which is difficult to predict.
Whether you can make money in the short-term, you can definitely make money, and you can make a lot of money.
But whether it is possible to make a lot of money continuously in the short-term, history has proved that this possibility is relatively low, so there is the long-termism.

Our company bought a plant-based report from a market research and consulting company.

One day their manager called me to collect feedback on the report and asked me if I would help with the research and development.
I told her that I didn't believe this, but I answered the phone more suddenly.
I didn't explain why I didn't believe it.
When looking at business reports, big data or some industry information, I tend to think about what is factual, long-term, stable, and human.
These are things I believe in.

clear goal:

clear goal:

More and more like "delicious meat"

More and more like "delicious meat"

Starting from long-termism, we must have a clear goal.

I have heard a lot of goals in this industry, and I also proposed a goal when I shared the technical challenges.
Here is an explanation of my thinking.

Plant-based foods contain many types, such as tofu, enoki mushrooms, cabbage, apples, and peanuts.
They all have their own taste and nutrition, each has its own market, and it does not need to be meat-like.

On the other hand, plant meat, why is it independent of all other plant-based foods and has received such attention, is it because of the word "meat" in its name? There is no such reason.
So it is because it is like meat, and only when plant meat becomes more and more like "delicious meat", its prospects will be more certain, and its market size will be comparable to the meat market.

Of course, this is technically difficult, very difficult, but I think it is not impossible in my assessment.
Because it is too difficult to rely on a single company to do it independently, the entire industry should take a long-term vision and move in the right direction.
Choice is far more important than hard work.
Don't go wrong.

After clarifying the goal, we have to take a look at where we stand now.
Is the plant meat industry developing well? I suggest that you recall the first one.
What is the first one? Seek truth from facts.
Then we sat down to face the problem.

Face the problem:

Face the problem:

Consumers think the product is not good enough

Consumers think the product is not good enough

Is the product hard to sell? Where is it? Is it too expensive? In fact, is it healthier for the human body? Do consumers agree that it is better?

Only when we have a correct understanding of the problem can we talk about solving the problem.

Principle first:

Principle first:

Ask why first, then talk about the solution

Ask why first, then talk about the solution

To solve the problem requires principle first.

To solve the problem requires principle first.

Basically, I see that everyone is showing solutions, but I don't know much about the principle.
Even on some issues, the basic perception of the entire industry is wrong.
So what good solutions can you think of?

The importance of the principle must take precedence over the solution.
There may be 10,000 solutions to a problem, and the first one found with a high probability will not be the optimal solution.
Only by constantly asking why can we find a disruptive solution.

On the first day of the Lunar New Year this year, someone in the circle of friends asked why the Spring Festival Gala sketches have become more and more boring over the years.
I believe many people will resonate.

Chen Peisi answered in an interview, what's the problem? Comedy has a method, but everyone doesn't know it.
It depends on seeing how others amuse others, and then I will imitate this method.
This will always circulate on one level, which is tantamount to a closed loop.

I think this problem also exists in the plant meat industry.
I have heard people ask me many times, which product do you use, can you send me some, and what their price is, let us imitate it.
Imitate to imitate, and finally everyone fights on the price? This industry hasn't gotten that far yet.
Imitation is not bad, but don’t just imitate the product itself.
Think about why others do it? Why didn't I think of it? Is it because I don't have a deep understanding of its principles?

Only when the entire industry thinks about this issue seriously, can there be major advancements in technology.

So what is technological progress? Let's take a look at the picture below.

Is it technological progress from blue to orange? not at all.
It has made a better quality product, possibly because of the use of better raw materials and finer processing, but the technical efficiency has not improved.
On this orange curve, do marketing again and find your customers.
This is the consumption upgrade that I have been talking about in previous years.

Look at this picture again.

From blue to orange, the efficiency of cost performance has been really improved.
This is the advancement of technology.
The plant meat industry essentially competes with technology.

Create value:

Create value:

Behavior that does not create value is called speculation

Behavior that does not create value is called speculation

All companies that want to survive for a long time should find ways to create value.
I judge that the development of the plant meat industry is difficult and long, not so fast, but as long as the entire industry can provide consumers with real value, its scale will be very large in the future.

What is the true value of this?

More efficient "delicious meat"

More efficient "delicious meat"

More efficient "delicious meat"

The important thing is said three times.
Different products may also have other added values, but this is the core value that the entire plant meat industry depends on in the future.

This industrial chain will also be very long, and there will be many enterprises from upstream to downstream, and each enterprise needs to provide real value for the downstream of the industrial chain.
Only in this way can the development of the entire industry be healthy.

I see that many companies want to pay downstream.
This thought is actually very simple to calculate.
The Chinese market is large enough.
Even if a 400 million urban population buys it once, it is also a massive sale.
However, the cost of acquiring customers is now extremely high, and there is a high probability that the first consumption will be paid for sale.
Comparing your heart to heart, if you spend your own money, you spend money, why not promote a good product that will be repeatedly consumed, but promote something that can only be sold once? Therefore, this kind of promotion is destined to not create value, it cannot be replicated on a large scale, nor can it last.

Behavior that does not create value is called speculation, and the entire industry should be vigilant, because speculation damages the long-term interests of the entire industry.

I hope that the above five suggestions can make the plant meat industry better and better, and I hope it can dispel the doubts in the minds of some readers.

about the author:

Bao Zhan, the chief scientist of Weishida Technology, has worked for BASF in Germany and Singapore for many years, researching nano and polymer materials.
Food writer and judge, Zhihu excellent answerer in the field of food and culinary, scientific consultant for the documentary series "Flavour World" by Chen Xiaoqing's team, and one of the real-name judges of Meituan's 2020 "Black Pearl Restaurant Guide" in China's high-end catering industry.

Founded in 2019, Beijing Weishida Technology is an early R&D-driven plant-based meat entrepreneur in China.

Source: FBIF Food and Beverage Innovation

Note: All pictures in the article are reprinted on the Internet, and infringement will be deleted!

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