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Since the intraday low of 10,910 yuan / ton on December 25, 2018, the main 1905 contract of Shanghai rubber futures has begun to fluctuate and rise, once showing a daily "five consecutive Yang", as of the close of January 4, 2019, the contract closed at 11845 yuan / ton
.
Analysts said that the relaxation of monetary policy by the central bank, the increase of a large number of infrastructure investment projects by the National Development and Reform Commission, and the speculation of the rubber market on the typhoon invasion of Thailand are all positive for the Shanghai rubber futures price, but from a technical point of view, the upper side is still facing some pressure, and pay attention to the breakthrough of the upper edge of the post-urban area
.
On January 4, the Shanghai rubber futures price increased its position sharply, the main 1905 contract rose 3.
54% to 11845 yuan / ton, the trading volume increased by 235,000 lots to 546,000 lots, and the position increased by 14102 lots to 350,000 lots
.
"The relaxation of monetary policy by the central bank, the increase in a large number of resumption of infrastructure investment projects by the National Development and Reform Commission, and the speculation of the rubber market about typhoons hitting Thailand have significantly improved the extreme pessimism in the natural rubber (11710, -20.
00, -0.
17%) market
.
" Hu Huajun, senior analyst of SDIC Anxin Futures, said
.
Specifically, first, the typhoon hit Thailand, and the market hype was strong
.
On January 3, CNN reported that Typhoon Prabu is expected to make landfall in Surat Thani and Nakhon near the Chumphone Islands on the eastern border of Khumachat province on the afternoon of the 4th local time
.
Experts predict that the typhoon may be the most destructive typhoon
since Tropical Storm Harriet in 1989.
Second, loose signal reproduction
.
According to the central bank's website on January 4, in order to further support the development of the real economy, optimize the liquidity structure and reduce financing costs, the People's Bank of China decided to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 1 percentage point, of which 0.
5 percentage points
were lowered on January 15 and January 25, 2019.
At the same time, the medium-term lending facility (MLF), which matured in the first quarter of 2019, will not be renewed
.
Third, infrastructure investment has accelerated
.
According to media reports, in the past month, the National Development and Reform Commission has approved urban rail and railway construction plans (including additions) for eight cities and regions, including Chongqing, Jinan, Hangzhou, Shanghai and Changchun, and three regional railway constructions in the Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone, the new Xi'an-Yan'an and Jiangsu Riverside city clusters, with a total investment of about 860 billion yuan
.
Among them, the relevant planning investment in Shanghai and Jiangsu is about 298.
348 billion yuan and 218 billion yuan
respectively.
"Even without considering the typhoon disaster in Thailand and the introduction of stimulus policies in China, the current fundamentals of the natural rubber market are not conducive to bears
.
" Hu Huajun said that as we all know, natural rubber, as an agricultural product, has obvious seasonal characteristics
.
From December to March of each year, China is in a period of suspension, while the main producing areas of Southeast Asia have entered a period of reduced production, and the global supply of natural rubber is in the off-season
.
Therefore, the change in the supply side during this period is clearly beneficial for speculative bulls on natural rubber, while the bears are very passive
.
However, it is worth mentioning that investors are still worried about the downturn in China's economy and the global economic slowdown, while European and American stock markets fell at record highs, and there are no signs of stopping the decline and stabilizing for the time being, which is still a risk factor
that cannot be ignored.
Futures analyst Wang Laifu said that although the recent Shanghai rubber futures price has shown a volatile rise, but from a technical point of view, it is still running in the low range of the bear market, and it is still in the bottom time period, and whether it can continue to attack in the later period depends on the degree
of upward attack on the pressure around 12850 yuan / ton along the upper edge of the range.
In addition, from the policy point of view, it is still necessary to pay attention to the evolution of the international trade situation and the policy changes in Southeast Asian production areas, but as far as the current subsidies issued by Thailand and Malaysia to boost the confidence of plantation owners and rubber farmers, there is still a lot of pressure to break through the upper edge of the range in the short term
.
In terms of operation, Hu Huajun suggested that long-term Shanghai rubber futures investors should reduce their holdings by an appropriate amount of high prices, and patiently wait for the end of typhoon speculation in Thailand and the improvement of the external financial environment before retaking long orders
.
