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Today's Shanghai copper main contract 1610 contract oscillation rebound, continued to be better than expected China's August manufacturing PMI and Shanghai zinc, Shanghai lead rise, late rise to 36640 yuan / ton, up 0.
3% from yesterday's closing price, barely standing on the support level of M200 36430 yuan / ton, its technical form is slightly stronger than London copper
.
In terms of term structure, the copper market showed a positive arrangement of near, low, far high, and the positive price difference between the Shanghai copper 1610 contract and the 1611 contract was flat to 30 yuan / ton
.
Externally: today's Asian Lun copper rushed back down, cutting some of the intraday gains, the performance is much weaker than Lun zinc and London lead, of which 3-month London copper rose slightly by 0.
22% to 4634 US dollars / ton, at present, London copper is still effectively running below the moving average group, short-term decline risk remains
.
In terms of positions, on August 31, the position of London copper was 330,000 lots, a sharp decrease of more than 10,000 lots from the 30th, indicating that the confidence of bulls to buy long on the dip is obviously insufficient, and the popularity of the copper market is very low
.
Macro: The Asian dollar index rose slightly and is now trading around 95.
7, but basically maintained its overnight decline, as the ISM manufacturing index fell to 49.
4 in August, lower than expectations of 52 and 52.
6 previously, and poor manufacturing data lowered expectations of the Fed's September interest rate hike
.
The market is currently focused on tonight's US non-farm payrolls data for August, which is expected to increase by 180,000 people, which is positive for the dollar index
.
Industry: Chile's Los Bronces and Salvador copper mines are close to a possible strike due to a lack of a wage deal, Barclays said that given the size of the two copper mines, a strike at either mine will have a stabilizing effect on copper prices
.
In terms of market: today's Shanghai electrolytic copper spot reported a premium of 70-120 yuan / ton, and the transaction price of flat water copper was 36560-36620 yuan / ton
.
Now the copper premium has risen to more than 100 yuan
.
The opening copper reported a premium of 100-110 yuan / ton, and a flat water copper report of 80-90 yuan / ton, up significantly from Thursday, but still quickly digested
by the market.
The increase in transaction activity has intensified speculative buying enthusiasm among traders, but downstream continues to buy sporadically, calmly viewing
the source of high-rise water.
Ahead of closing, premium is expected to continue to strengthen, not only due to the traditional peak season to boost price confidence, but also because the Mid-Autumn Festival approaches
.
Today's Shanghai copper 1610 contract oscillated to 36640 yuan / ton, as Shanghai copper continued to reduce its position, showing that the long and short actively reduced their positions and left the market, and the confidence of bulls to buy the low is still insufficient
.
Given that the current copper is still running under the 37,000 yuan / ton integer mark and the key technical support of M60, and the stock of London copper continues to increase, the risk of copper price decline remains
.
It is recommended that the Shanghai copper 1610 contract can be cautiously short below 37,000 yuan, with a target of 35,900 yuan
.
