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    Home > Food News > Food Articles > The weather vane is invalid, the pig-to-food ratio is still 8:1, and the pig enterprises are in a loss...

    The weather vane is invalid, the pig-to-food ratio is still 8:1, and the pig enterprises are in a loss...

    • Last Update: 2021-06-23
    • Source: Internet
    • Author: User
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    The pig-to-food ratio, the weather vane that the pig breeding industry has always valued, seems to have failed
    .

    The pig-to-food ratio directly reflects the profit status of the pig industry through the relationship between the price of pigs and grain prices, and has long been regarded as a weather vane by the pig breeding industry
    .


    But right now, this weather vane is encountering unprecedented challenges


    Pig's life is not satisfactory

    The pig-to-food ratio has just fallen to 8:1, and pig companies have already suffered a lot of losses
    .


    In this round of rare pig price fluctuations, the pig-to-food ratio has also become abnormal.


    Since the beginning of this year, the price of live pigs has continued to fall, and the pig-to-food ratio has continued to fall
    .


    According to China’s large and medium-sized cities pig food price comparison data released by the Chinese government website, this indicator has now fallen from the highest point of 20.


    According to data, as of the close of May 11, the main hog futures contract was reported at 24,950 yuan/ton, which was a record low of 24,750 yuan/ton since January 25 this year; at the same time, the main corn futures contract closed at 2831 yuan/ton, close to the highest in history.
    The level is 2869 yuan/ton
    .


    Calculated based on the closing prices of the two on May 11, the ratio of the two was 8.


    In the past, the pig-to-food ratio has entered the range of 9:1-6:1, which usually means that pig companies are living well, but this is not the case
    .

    "According to our calculations, the cost of self-breeding and self-raising is 15.
    42 yuan/kg, and the cost of purchased piglets is 20.
    80 yuan/kg.
    The purchased piglets have already suffered a total loss.
    If the self-breeding and self-raising enterprises add plant and equipment depreciation, they are almost at profit or loss.
    Edge
    .


    " said Lu Pin, an agricultural and animal husbandry analyst at Everbright Futures


    According to the latest data from Zhuo Chuang Information, as of May 11, the profit of self-breeding and self-raising of pigs was 584.
    77 yuan/head, a decrease of 41.
    11% from the same period last month
    .


    Niu Zhe, an analyst at Zhuochuang Information, told a reporter from China Securities News: “Although the current profitability of self-breeding and self-raising companies has shrunk significantly compared with the previous period, they are still in a state of small profitability


    "Swine breeding is divided into large-scale enterprises and small and medium-sized farmers in terms
    of scale.


    Most large-scale enterprises have sow reserves, so the overall profitability is still maintained.


    "Carving a boat for a sword" is not advisable

    "As a result of the current pig-to-grain ratio of 8:1, there are still many pig companies losing money.
    In addition to the increase in food and feed costs, another important reason is that the price of piglets has fallen far less than the price of live pigs
    .


    " Senior Analyst at Shengda Futures Meng Jinhui said


    It is understood that the emergence and popularization of the concept of pig-to-grain ratio occurred after the national government formulated the "Prevention of Excessive Reduction of Live Pig Prices (Interim)" policy in 2009
    .
    If the price ratio of pig food is higher than 9:1, it means that the supply of live pigs is insufficient.
    According to regulations, the government should put in frozen meat reserves in a timely manner; if it is between 9:1 and 6:1, it means that the price is normal and the pig company is in a profitable state
    .

    “At that time, the proportion of large-scale and moderate-scale farms in China was slowly increasing, and retail groups still occupied the mainstream.
    Most live pig breeding methods were self-breeding and self-raising, and there were few businesses who chose to purchase piglets for replenishment
    .
    And the piglets at that time Prices and feed prices are relatively low, and the cost of replenishment of breeding units can be controlled within a relatively low range.
    The pig-to-grain ratio is higher than 5.
    5:1 or 6:1, and relevant companies can indeed achieve profitability
    .
    With the continuous development of the pig industry Development and the emergence of the African swine fever epidemic in China, the industry is becoming more diversified, and the factors affecting pig prices are not limited to supply and demand.
    Especially after 2019, the high cost of replenishment has led to even the pig feed ratio at 8:1 In green areas, companies will also show a loss situation
    .
    " Niu Zhe analyzed
    .

    "The traditional pig-to-food ratio of 5.
    5:1 as the break-even line for pig raising has failed
    .
    " Lu Pin asserted that the traditional break-even line is calculated based on the fact that the feed cost covers a higher proportion of the total breeding cost.
    African pigs After the emergence of the disease, the cost of epidemic prevention in farms has increased significantly, the breeding density has been drastically reduced, labor and water and electricity costs have also increased year by year, and the proportion of corn prices in the entire breeding cost has dropped significantly.
    Therefore, it is no longer necessary to measure the profitability of breeding simply by the ratio of pigs to grains.
    Not objective
    .
    In addition, with the continuous advancement of domestic pig-raising enterprises in scale and intensification, the differences in the breeding costs of various enterprises are also large, and the pig-to-food ratio alone cannot reflect the breeding situation of the entire industry
    .

    Although the role of the indicator of the pig-to-food ratio is gradually ineffective, the profitability of pig enterprises is not without a trace
    .
    Niu Zhe told a reporter from the China Securities Journal: "In comparison, the feed price ratio is more suitable for the current live pig market, because the feed price ratio is calculated from the comprehensive feed, piglet and live pig price data, which is different from the traditional pig feed ratio.
    In the calculation model, the pig feed ratio takes into account the price of feed such as soybean meal and bran, which can better reflect the actual profitability of pig breeding
    .
    "

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