There is a high probability that domestic oil prices will fall for the first time this year, and a full box will cost 10 yuan less

At 24:00 today (31st), a new round of price adjustment window for domestic refined oil products will open.

During the current pricing cycle, international oil prices fluctuated.

Zhao Ying, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, also said that the demand side "increased market concerns about crude oil demand" and the supply side "Suez Canal blocked" caused international oil prices to fluctuate.

In the early morning of March 30, Beijing time, international oil prices rose.

Xinhua News Agency reported that on the 29th local time, the stranded heavy freighter successfully escaped, and the Suez Canal resumed navigation at 18:00 local time (24:00 Beijing time) on the 29th.

According to Reuters' Chinese website, sources said on Monday that under the new wave of anti-epidemic blockade, Saudi Arabia is ready to support the extension of OPEC+'s production reduction measures to May and June, and is ready to expand its own voluntary production reduction measures to boost.

Meng Xiao analyzed that if Saudi Arabia cuts production, the supply side will remain relatively tight, and crude oil prices will not have a substantial downward basis; from the demand side, the current negative impact of the epidemic on prices is not very obvious.

In addition, Longzhong Information pointed out that although the blockage of the Suez Canal has been basically resolved, the market believes that it will take time for the channel to fully return to normal, and OPEC+ may extend the current scale of production cuts to May, and international oil prices continue to rise.

　　According to calculations by Zhuochuang Information, the reference crude oil change rate on the 9th working day of this round of pricing cycle is -4.
73%, which corresponds to a reduction of 230 yuan/ton for gasoline and diesel.
There is one working day before the opening of the price adjustment window.
This reduction is a foregone conclusion .
Calculating at the current rate, the price reduction rate of 92# gasoline and 0# diesel is expected to be around 0.
2 yuan, and a full box of 50L of 92# gasoline is expected to save about 10 yuan.

　　Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client noticed that domestic refined oil prices will end in a "four consecutive rises" in 2020.
Entering 2021, domestic oil prices have "five consecutive rises.
" Accumulating price adjustments at the end of 2020, domestic oil prices have been “increasing nine times in a row” for the first time since the implementation of the current price adjustment mechanism in spring 2013.
If this reduction is fulfilled, domestic refined oil prices will fall for the first time this year.

　　In accordance with the "ten working days" principle, the next round of price adjustment window will be opened at 24:00 on April 15, 2021.
Li Yan, an analyst at Longzhong Information, said that OPEC+ may extend the current production reduction scale at the meeting in early April.
Global economic data is still improving.
It is expected that the next round of refined oil price adjustments is likely to increase.
(Feng Fang)

Transfer from: Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client

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