Last year, Zhengzhou Coal's 1911 contract acted as the main force for the first time and was in power for exactly one month.
In late August this year, Zhengzhou Coal's 2011 contract once again became the main force, but trading is still active so far, and there is no sign of abdication.
It can be seen that the supply and demand of coal in winter has become a hot spot for market transactions, and November contracts will gradually become active.
At the beginning of September, thermal coal futures broke through the resistance level of 570 in one fell swoop.
Due to the reduction in import quotas and the impact of coal ticketing, imported coal decreased, coal prices in production areas strengthened, and production peaks in autumn and winter, demand for cement and chemical coal increased sharply.
Under the situation, the power plant started the winter storage and transportation to replenish the warehouse, and the price of thermal coal rose rapidly, and the basis was wiped out for a while.
Recently, the price of thermal coal futures has stabilized at 600 points, and the market’s long sentiment has been ignited again.
Thermal coal’s 2011 contract reached a maximum of 629.
6 yuan/ton, a one-and-a-half-year high, with a cumulative monthly increase of nearly 10%.
Downstream rigid demand helps port inventories continue to fall.
Recent policies in the real estate market have suppressed housing prices in terms of supply, demand, and cost.
From January to August 2020, the cumulative area of newly started construction across the country fell by 3.
6% year-on-year, which was 0.
9 percentage points lower than the previous month.
The market's expectations for the future real estate market and steel demand have deteriorated.
However, driven by a series of policy measures such as stable growth and expansion of domestic demand, since mid-August, cement prices across the country have continued to rise.
One ton of cement in East China has risen by 60 yuan a month.
Cement shipments have risen simultaneously, and industrial electricity consumption has also increased.
Being in a recovery channel has intensified the enthusiasm of downstream consumer companies and trading companies for purchasing thermal coal from northern ports.
The number of ships pulling coal at the port has maintained a certain number, especially the anchor ships of Huanghua Port and Qinhuangdao Port have maintained a medium-to-high level, and the coal price has remained firm.
As of September 28, the coal inventory of Bohai Rim ports totaled 19.
928 million tons, a decrease of nearly 20% from the high in mid-August.
Among them, Qinhuangdao has 5.
02 million tons of inventory, 47 ships at anchorage, and 23 ships are expected; Caofeidian port area has 8.
381 million tons of inventory, 14 ships at anchorage, and 16 ships are expected; Jingtang port area has inventory of 5.
194 million tons, 17 ships at anchorage, and 6 ships are expected.
In addition, Huanghua Port has an inventory of 1.
333 million tons.
In addition, the heating season is approaching, and the coal supply situation in Northeast China is severe.
At the 2020 Summer National Coal Trade Fair held earlier, a relevant person from the National Development and Reform Commission stated that the supply of Northeast China has been listed as the focus of the industry in the second half of the year, and coordination is required as soon as possible.
Determine the source of coal, and do a good job in price stabilization while ensuring supply.
At present, many prefectures and cities are under great pressure to ensure the supply of coal.
In order to ensure the stable supply of coal, relevant departments will adopt more means to implement coal reserve work.
The lack of supply in the market is not optimistic.
Under the major premise of the country’s “six stability” and “six guarantees” policy and the implementation of the National Development and Reform Commission’s supply guarantee requirements, China’s August raw coal production rebounded 7.
87 million tons from the previous month to 325.
8 million tons.
It hit a 5-month low.
Although Shaanxi’s safety inspections restrict the release of production capacity, a small number of mines have been suspended for maintenance and most coal mines have shipped smoothly.
However, problems in the coal-related field in Inner Mongolia have been rectified, coal management and invoices are strictly controlled, and market shipments are insufficient and inverted.
In the case of rapid recovery of demand, the role of social inventory reservoirs is difficult to reflect.
In addition, the economic situation at home and abroad is very different.
The thermal coal import spread will continue to consume thermal coal import quotas.
The import quotas of multiple ports in South China are almost exhausted in the first half of the year, and customs declarations at ports in East China have been stopped.
In August, imports of coal and lignite were 20.
663 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 21%.
Compared with the same period last year, imports of 32.
95 million tons, a decrease of 37%, were the lowest in a year and a half.
In December 2019, affected by import quotas, the import volume had reached 2.
772 million tons.
At present, major economies such as Europe and the United States are experiencing a major outbreak of the new crown epidemic again, and social life and production are again facing the risk of stagnation.
The weak foreign coal demand may increase the import spread, but the import quota has not been released yet, and domestic coal purchases may become the mainstream.
The risk of port coal prices
hitting the red line is accumulating.
On September 29, the Q5500 thermal coal price of Qinhuangdao Port, Ordos, was 610 yuan, hitting a new high for more than 14 months, and it has reached the red alert zone.
The Daqin line is about to start a one-month autumn inspection, but if the heating and supply pressure increases during the period, the market expects that the relaxation of import customs clearance policies may not rule out the possibility of a skyrocketing coal supply for heating.
Observing the current Zhengzhou Coal 2011 contract holdings list, it is found that the top 20 long positions totaled 111,606 hands, but the short positions of the top 20 positions reached 149,022 hands, and the net short orders reached 38,000 hands.
The short position has an absolute advantage, which also gives the thermal coal bullish sentiment.
Imports may be difficult to fully liberalize the tight coal supply will continue.
However, in a comprehensive analysis, even if the market is calling for easing import customs clearance, but the current internal circulation policy dominates the market, the possibility of a substantial or full liberalization of imported coal is unlikely , The "20-year back inspection" policy will also offset some of the impact of supply guarantee measures on domestic coal supply, so the tight supply situation after the holiday will continue.
However, the transfer volume of Bohai Rim ports continued to be lower than the transfer volume, indicating that some traders are reluctant to sell and cover their goods, and the market still has bullish sentiment.
The demand for heating after the holiday increases, and the daily consumption of power plants may rise slowly, which will also provide a certain amount of room for coal prices to rise.
Transfer from: Jintou.
[Copyright and Disclaimer] All copyrighted works belonging to this website must be authorized when reprinting and indicate the source "China Industrial Economic Information Network".
Offenders of this website will reserve the right to pursue relevant legal responsibilities.
Any reprint of articles and corporate publicity information only represents the author's personal views, and does not represent the views and positions of this website.
For copyright matters, please contact: 010-65363056.