Thermal coal: market sentiment returns to a rational upward rhythm and slows down

Under the policy control, the thermal coal supply and price stabilization have achieved initial results.
Although the supply situation is still tight, market sentiment has returned to rationality and the price increase has slowed down
.

Security inspections may become stricter, and supply may increase or be limited

In mid-May, the executive meeting of the State Council mentioned twice to do a good job in ensuring the supply and price stabilization of bulk commodities, especially coal.
As China's basic energy product, the supply and price stabilization has risen to a new height

However, June is the 20th safe production month in China, and is approaching the centennial birthday of the Communist Party of China on July 1.
Preventing risks, eliminating hidden dangers, and curbing accidents are the top priorities of the market.

The release of coal production capacity in producing areas was limited, and the pit-mouth quotations once stopped falling and rebounded, but stabilizing prices is not an empty talk
.
In early June, the competent authority of Shaanxi Province once again interviewed companies that have risen in coal prices to curb the rise in coal prices

Short-term procurement is not urgent, but the peak season cannot be ignored

At this stage, the power plant is still based on the chief executive contract
.
Out of trust in policy regulation, power plant procurement is not active, and demand is relatively restrained

Daily consumption has gradually increased, but the coal inventory of coastal power plants is still far below the level of the same period in previous years.
The available inventory days are only 13 days.
Once the daily consumption increases, the inventory will become more stretched.
In addition, clean energy is affected by climate factors and the output is not stable.

Limited replenishment of imported goods and insufficient port inventory

When the purchase demand of power plants increases, can the supply meet the demand? At present, it is very difficult
.
On the one hand, the increase in domestic coal supply is limited.
Although the inventory of northern Bohai Rim ports is at a normal level, it is relatively low, and the port shipment situation has not improved significantly; on the other hand, the international coal market is tightly supplied and prices have risen sharply.
Imports The advantage is weakened, and the quarterly import quota of some power plants has been used up ahead of schedule, the customs will tighten customs clearance, and the supplementary supply of foreign coal is limited

Strong policy control, superimposed on the weakening of surrounding black varieties, the main contract for thermal coal can be weakened, but given that the supply is still tight, the room for price correction is limited

　　Transfer from: Futures Daily