At present, the impact of Inner Mongolia's coal management ticket is gradually showing, the inventory of the producing area continues to be low, and the coal imported during the summer peak period of coal consumption has not increased the quota.
After the summer, the accumulation of storage in the off-season of previous years has not occurred, and the port inventory is relatively neutral.
Recently, the current prices of thermal coal have continued to rise, and have all entered the red range of 600 yuan/ton or more.
Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi "one decrease and one increase"
Inner Mongolia was restricted by coal management bills for most of the year, making it difficult to fully utilize its production capacity.
At the beginning of the year, coal companies actively responded to the resumption of work and production requirements and spared no effort to ensure supply.
In March and April, coal production in Inner Mongolia exceeded 85 million tons.
Since then, the influence of policies such as "researching for twenty years" and curbing super-capacity production has gradually emerged, and coal production in Inner Mongolia has fallen sharply.
The so-called "twenty years of back investigation" originated from the "Announcement on Accepting Letters and Visits in the Special Rectification Work of Illegal Issues in the Coal Resources Field of the Autonomous Region" issued by the Commission for Discipline Inspection and Supervision of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region on February 28.
Party organizations, party members, cadres, and subjects of supervision have reported complaints about disciplinary violations, illegal duties, or crimes in the coal resources field since 2000.
Coal-related anti-corruption investigations have spanned 20 years.
At the same time, since May, the Ordos region has stepped up efforts to curb coal mine super-capacity production, and issued monthly coal management tickets in strict accordance with the approved production capacity.
The picture shows coal production in Inner Mongolia (unit: 10,000 tons)
Affected by this, coal production in Inner Mongolia has dropped significantly, with a year-on-year decrease of 12.
9% in May.
Even during the peak period of coal consumption in July and August, no additional quotas were issued.
From January to August, Inner Mongolia's raw coal output totaled 634 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.
At present, the operating rate of coal enterprises in the Ordos region is only 67%, which is lower than the 72% in the same period last year.
It is expected that it will be more difficult to relax the policy in the fourth quarter.
Inner Mongolia's monthly output will remain at the level of 80 million to 85 million tons, and the volume will be reduced by 26 million to 28 million tons in the fourth quarter.
Under this circumstance, the contradiction between the coal types in the inventory of northern ports is prominent, the low-sulfur and high-calorific value coal is in short supply, and the quotation continues to be premium, and this coal type is closer to the benchmark delivery products on the disk.
From January to August, Shaanxi produced 429 million tons of coal, an increase of 47 million tons or 11.
Due to the low base, it seems that this year's growth has actually returned to normal levels.
At present, production in Yulin and other places is also subject to certain restrictions.
Even if it returns to normal in the fourth quarter, it can barely compensate for the reduction in Inner Mongolia.
Due to the large number of state-owned mines in Shanxi, the output was relatively stable.
The cumulative output from January to August was 676 million tons, an increase of 4.
In the later period, it was mainly stable, with a slight increase.
The picture shows Shaanxi coal production (unit: 10,000 tons)
The national coal output from January to August totaled 2.
45 billion tons, a cumulative decrease of 0.
The annual output is expected to increase slightly, and it is difficult to achieve a substantial increase in production.
Coal imports are still restricted.
beginning of the year, coal imports have begun to strictly implement import quota management and prohibit remote customs declarations.
In addition to the relatively large amount of customs clearance in January and February, imported coal has been showing a tight trend, especially after May, which fell sharply year-on-year.
In August, my country imported 20.
66 million tons of coal and lignite, a decrease of 37% year-on-year.
From January to August, a total of 220.
75 million tons were imported, a cumulative increase of 0.
Under the goal of "equal control" of imports, it is assumed that the total annual imports will be implemented at 270 million tons in 2017.
Then the remaining quota from September to December is about 50 million tons, with an average monthly average of only 12.
5 million tons.
Compared with the same period last year, the monthly average monthly import volume is about 20 million tons, which will reduce by 7.
5 million tons per month, a decrease of 37.
For the South China and East China power plants, there is a big gap.
If the future is not liberalized, this part of the coal demand will be transformed into the purchase of domestic sewage coal.
During the peak period of winter coal use, it will undoubtedly increase the Bohai Sea Rim.
The supply pressure of coal water in the port.
The picture shows the international spot price of thermal coal (unit: USD/ton, yuan/ton)
As coal prices in northern ports continue to rise, rumors about liberalizing imported coal continue.
It is rumored in the market that in October, customs clearance procedures for imported coal that arrives at some ports before September 1 but has not yet been cleared will be handled one after another, with an amount of about 1.
5 million tons.
It was also rumored that a quota of 10 million tons of directional coal imports was given to the terminal enterprises in the Northeast to ensure supply in winter.
Relevant ministries and commissions went to Northeast China to implement supply guarantee measures from September 25 to 27, which once again aroused market concern and speculation about imported coal policies.
The picture shows the price difference of imported coal (unit: yuan/ton)
The price difference between imported coal and futures also slightly returned with the expected increase in import liberalization, narrowing from the maximum of 235 yuan/ton to 205 yuan/ton the day before.
Downstream demand gradually recovered.
August, the domestic manufacturing PMI index was 51, which was above the boundary between prosperity and decline for six consecutive months.
Among them, the new order index is 52, a new high since March; production and operation activities are expected to be 58.
6, a new high since this year, indicating a clear expectation for improvement.
In August, the industrial value-added growth rate was 5.
6% year-on-year, the previous value was 4.
8% and the same period last year was 4.
Among them, the mining industry and public utilities have accelerated their growth.
From January to August, the growth rate of fixed asset investment was -0.
3%, and the previous value was -1.
Among them, real estate and infrastructure investment maintained strong growth, while manufacturing investment slowly recovered.
Real estate sales continued to rebound strongly, with a monthly growth rate of 13.
7%; real estate investment growth rate was 11.
8% that month, and the monthly growth rate of newly started orders slowed down to 2.
4% (previous value 11.
3%); real estate companies have abundant sources of funds, and the overall real estate industry Maintain high growth.
In August, retail sales of social consumers grew by 0.
5% year-on-year, and the previous value was -1.
The growth rate turned positive for the first time after the epidemic, and the rate of consumption recovery showed signs of accelerating.
Among them, the growth rate of optional products has increased, and the growth rate of mandatory products has stabilized.
The picture shows the cumulative amount of fixed asset investment completed year-on-year (unit: %)
Judging from the output growth rate of major coal-consuming industries, all have resumed growth.
From January to August, my country's crude steel output was 688.
8 million tons, up 3.
7% year-on-year; the output of pig iron was 589.
4 million tons, up 3.
4% year-on-year; the output of flat glass was 623.
08 million heavy boxes, up 1% year-on-year.
The speed of recovery in the real estate and infrastructure sectors in the fourth quarter is still worth looking forward to.
The purchase time of enterprises is ahead of schedule.
summer, China's climate conditions are generally deviated, and extreme weather is more frequent.
Since June, torrential rains in most parts of the south have been earlier than normal.
Large-scale heavy rainfall in many parts of the country once made the market place high hopes for the increase in hydropower, lowering the growth rate of thermal power.
In fact, whether rainfall can be converted into hydropower depends on the rainfall time and the area where rainfall is concentrated.
If the rainfall is concentrated in July and August, the reservoir area will release the flood early under the pressure of flood control to reserve a safe water level, and it is difficult for the rainfall to be converted into electricity.
In addition, the large-scale rainfall since June has been concentrated in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River, such as Anhui, Jiangxi, and Jiangsu.
The lack of potential energy height is also difficult to effectively convert into hydropower.
Therefore, the increase in rainfall cannot be regarded as an increase in hydropower.
The picture shows the flow out of the Three Gorges Reservoir (unit: cubic meters per second)
At the beginning of the year, the southwest region was severely dry.
From January to May, the monthly hydropower generation showed a negative year-on-year growth, and the growth rate did not turn positive until June.
Although the ultra-high power generation was reached in July and August, the cumulative hydropower generation from January to August was 763.
4 billion kWh , Which is still down 2.
At present, the outflow of the Three Gorges Reservoir and the height of the water head have fallen.
It is expected that hydropower will return to the normal level from September to December.
The electricity demand in the fourth quarter will still need to be met by thermal power.
On the other hand, thermal power is expected to continue to resume growth.
What coincides with the restoration of real estate and infrastructure is the rapid restoration of electricity consumption data.
The electricity consumption of the whole society increased significantly in August, with a year-on-year increase of 7.
7%, the highest growth rate in a single month this year.
The cumulative increase from January to August was 0.
5%, which was the first time this year to turn positive.
In July and August of this year, hydropower generation exceeded 140 billion kWh for two consecutive months, the highest monthly hydropower generation in history.
Hydropower priority netbooks should squeeze a large share of thermal power.
However, due to strong demand, my country’s thermal power generation was still achieved in August.
A year-on-year increase of 6.
We estimate that the annual growth rate of thermal power will be 1%.
The picture shows thermal power generation (unit: 100 million kWh)