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On Wednesday, the main 2201 contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated strongly, with the highest 71580 yuan / ton and the lowest 70770 yuan / ton within the day, and the closing price of 71220 yuan / ton, up 0.
68% from the previous trading day's closing price; LME copper first weakened and then strong, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month London copper was reported at 9747 US dollars / ton, up 0.
19%
per day.
Market focus: (1) US President Biden announced on the 23rd that the United States will release 50 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserves to reduce oil prices and solve the problem of
mismatch between energy supply and demand in the United States.
(2) ICSG data, the global refined copper market experienced an oversupply
of 52,000 tons in August 2021.
This compares to a global supply gap of 31,000 tonnes in July and 98,000 tonnes
in June.
Spot analysis: SMM spot 1# electrolytic copper quotation 71630-72050 yuan / ton, the average price is 71840 yuan / ton, down 620 yuan / ton
daily.
The premium continued to decline, the holders continued to adjust the price of shipments, the downstream consumption was cautious and wait-and-see, the receiver reduced the price and purchased on demand, and the overall transaction was still without bright spots
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts in Shanghai was 12,213 tons, a daily decrease of 125 tons, and a decrease of 6 consecutive days; LME copper stocks stood at 82,225 tonnes, an increase of 625 tonnes
per day.
Main position: Shanghai copper main 2201 contract top 20 long positions 109061, +237, short positions 119273, +2269, net positions -10212, -2032, long and short increased, net short increased
.
Market research and judgment: Biden nominated Powell for a second term as chairman of the Federal Reserve, under the background of US inflationary pressure, hawkish stance expectations are heating up, and the dollar index is trending upward; The U.
S.
announcement of the release of crude oil reserves fell short of market expectations, and stronger crude oil prices boosted the non-ferrous sector
.
Fundamentally, the growth of upstream copper processing fees has slowed down, and the tight supply of cold materials still exists, coupled with the sharp decline in sulfuric acid prices, the pressure on refinery production has increased
.
Copper prices have fallen recently, downstream purchasing willingness has improved, processing enterprise inventories are low, demand elasticity is high, domestic copper inventories have fallen slightly, but the market fear of heights also exists; Foreign explicit inventories continue to decline, supply tightening concerns remain, and copper prices are expected to move
upward.
