Top 10 forecast of global pharmaceutical industry in 2020

The coming of 2020 not only marks the beginning of the new year, but also the coming of the new decade The industry has also shown some new trends, for example, which hot treatment areas will lead the growth of the pharmaceutical industry? Which new areas will enter emerging markets? Will fast-paced M & a continue? And what innovations in production equipment will emerge? How will political factors in big countries such as the US election change the pattern of the pharmaceutical industry? Wait.. Some foreign pharmaceutical manufacturing websites interviewed some industry executives and well-known institutions, and listed some views Here, Dami briefly shared them with the partners of mrclub In the field of traditional biotechnology, we will continue to see the popularity of monoclonal antibody drugs Three or four years ago, 80% of the monoclonal antibody drugs were concentrated on more than 10 molecules Now these drugs only occupy 60% of the share, and the share continues to decrease over time A new generation of rising stars, such as coreda and odivo, are rising, and the total number of antibodies is also increasing significantly, partly because the cost of building production facilities is only a small part of the past thanks to the application of one-off technology In the future, more niche therapies will be introduced to the market, which can meet a small number of individualized medical needs This change will drive the development of individualized medical market segments, and make it possible for multiple drug production facilities Cell and gene therapy offers great hope for the development of effective therapies based on individual specific genes and cell composition for specific patients, but the cost of these one-to-one therapies is also unbelievable As more cell and gene therapies are expected to be approved this year and later, it is expected that the pharmaceutical industry will continue to grow in this field, and scalability and treatment costs will become the focus of providing special therapies such as cell and gene therapy Pharmaceutical companies will seek effective strategies to rapidly expand scale and reduce costs A potential solution may be to develop common DNA Characteristic therapy is no longer one-to-one, but one to many Oncology is expected to be a fundamental driver of many trading activities, after all, more than a third of the industry's pipeline assets and clinical trials are concentrated here In many transactions in 2019, gene therapy is very prominent Some executives think that it's not too late for new enterprises to take action in this field To be the industry leader or to continue to be a bystander, enterprises need to weigh and participate in it, and it's possible to find the first-class technology and the most appropriate clinical opportunities In the field of digital health, there will be further transactions, such as real world data, artificial intelligence machine learning, digital therapy, etc Up to now, biopharmaceutical companies have mainly incorporated these capabilities into their own operations through cooperation, but in the face of the threat of large technology companies entering the field of health care, having internal expertise will obviously take advantage and gain opportunities Next year, eight drugs are expected to increase sales by $1 billion, or more than that, according to evaluate Four of them are anti-cancer drugs After all, high pricing is a significant feature of cancer drugs, although only a few of them represent a real breakthrough As the global pharmaceutical industry's public regulation of drug prices and accessibility increases, reducing drug prices will continue to be the focus of this year, which may break the long-term pricing model of drug companies As this year's U.S election approaches, Congress is likely to push for price reforms that will affect the development of new drugs and special therapies, and possibly accelerate the launch of generic and bio similar drugs In order to maintain profitability, pharmaceutical companies are expected to continue to expand outsourcing cooperation to reduce costs Sales and R & D may be the only internal functions of some pharmaceutical companies, while other key businesses are outsourced Therefore, we also hope to see more alliances between packaging, transportation and contract production suppliers, so as to use the first-class capabilities to support multinational pharmaceutical companies with increasingly heavy costs In the past few years, the volume of M & A transactions has been growing steadily The existing fundamentals show that there is no problem to maintain the current 10% growth rate According to informa's forecast, it is expected that 260 M & A transactions will be completed in the industry in 2020, basically in this year, one transaction will be completed every working day on average, but the total value of the transaction is not yet determined With some drugs in the R & D pipeline reaching key milestones, it is expected that many companies in the R & D stage will be transformed into commercial operation stage This type of company has great value for multinational pharmaceutical companies Once the innovative drugs are approved, it will enter a large untapped market Therefore, this type of company will be acquired in 2019 We have seen some in As the U.S presidential election approaches, there will only be more and more talk about drug pricing, according to evaluate, which makes this area of public prejudice once again the focus of attention Although the party deadlock means that US lawmakers will not agree on any new measures soon, it is clear that medical expenses will still be a living problem in 2020, which may turn into stock market turbulence It is expected that IPO windows will not be completely closed this year, but individual investors may not be like 2019 As easy to accept in, venture investors will also take a more cautious attitude towards financing, especially if it seems that their fund exit cycle is relatively long Some industry executives believe that when a company tests new therapies in mature markets such as the US and EU, they will conduct clinical trials, recruit patients, and then review the results But in some countries in North Asia, such as South Korea and China, when companies use car-t for patients When it comes to advanced therapies such as cell therapy, local regulators will think it's more like a medical process Because of different approval regulations, companies can see whether it's effective faster, and then modify treatment plans faster than mature market countries, which will help promote more progress in cell and gene therapy in Asia By 2020 and beyond, pharmaceutical companies will accelerate integration, and emerging markets will grow rapidly, especially in the field of tumor and biological products Because it is difficult for generic companies to reshape themselves, they have little growth opportunities in mature markets, and they may get a better position in the industry through merger Because regulatory hurdles and development costs remain complex, and most companies are not able to do so, U.S approval for bioequivalent drugs will be reduced Some executives believe that pharmaceutical companies in Europe, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), as well as emerging regions across the continent, will buy low margin non patent assets, such as South Africa, which is making a lot of investment, and most drugs in the Middle East and North Africa are priced higher than most EU Member States This may be a golden decade for Africa, where smart money will be deployed China has been leading Africa for a decade, mainly in the energy sector, and health care may be the next area of concern for Chinese pharmaceutical companies Brand drug companies will continue to divest their lower profit assets and focus on investing in cancer and biopharmaceutics In this way, the field of small molecule drugs will become the battlefield of start-ups and small pharmaceutical companies, and some pharmaceutical companies will focus on the old drugs that adjust their use.