Top 20 forecast of potential blockbuster drug sales in R & D line of pharmaceutical industry

Source: dingxiangyuan 2014-08-05 based on the current consensus forecast, the top 20 drugs under research in the pharmaceutical industry will generate about $40 billion in global sales by 2020 By the end of the decade, the figure is almost certain to change, but confidence in business opportunities for these key assets under study will continue to gain momentum Cancer drugs dominate the list, especially immunotherapy drugs, which are expected to have a significant commercial impact by 2020 At present, the four PD-1 / PD-L1 inhibitors in the mid / late development stage are expected to generate Blockbuster Sales by the end of the decade Nivolumab and pembrolizumab of Bristol Myers Squibb are expected to become the two largest varieties under development Besides tumor immunotherapy, there are other popular anticancer drugs, which are very hopeful to become heavy bombs in 2020 For example, the breakthrough drug of Pfizer in the treatment of ER + her2-breast cancer, palbociclib + letrozole, compared with letrozole alone, can significantly prolong PFS (20.2 vs 10.2 months) Due to the better data of phase II research, Pfizer has skipped phase III research and submitted a rolling new drug application to FDA, which is faster than Novartis lee011 (expected NDA to be submitted in 2016) and ly2835219 from Lilly (NDA to be submitted in 2017 is expected) In the past 12 months, a number of breakthrough drugs have been approved in CLL, such as Roche obinutuzumab, Gilead idelalisib and Johnson ibrutinib, but abt-199 developed by abbvie is the fastest advancing Bcl-2 inhibitor In the phase I study, the response rate of abt-199 to CLL / SLL was 79%, the median sustained response time was 20.5 months, and the response rate of abt-199 to NHL was 48% Abt-199 is expected to become the first in class Bcl-2 inhibitor, and compete with the three drugs with convincing efficacy data Azd-9291 and co-1686 are important progress in the treatment of refractory NSCLC About 50% of NSCLC patients with drug resistance to Iressa (gefitinib) had T790M mutation, while azd-9291 and co-1686 were lung cancer drugs developed for drug resistance target T790M In phase II study, the response rate of T790M positive patients to azd-929 was 64%, and the disease control rate was 94% Both azd-9291 and co-1686 have obtained FDA's breakthrough drug qualification, but the development progress of azd-9291 is slightly faster than that of co-1686 In other disease areas, the emergence of sovaldi makes hepatitis C a treatable disease, and also describes a very rich prospect of hepatitis C drug market Sovaldi can only be taken orally to patients with genotype 2 and 3, and ledipasvir + sofosbuvir, another combination of Gilead hepatitis C drugs, has the highest cure rate of 100% for patients with genotype 1 hepatitis C, which has been given priority review by FDA Given that 75% of hepatitis C patients in the United States are genotype 1, Gilead's products will reach a broader patient population Abbvie's triple combination abt-450 / R + abt-267 + abt-333 also won the FDA's priority review qualification on June 13, keeping up with Gilead's pace PCSK9 is the hottest target after Lipitor Amgen and Sanofi / regeneron are the leaders in the development of PCSK9 inhibitors In terms of the main efficacy index of reducing LDL-C level in patients, the evolocumab of Amgen and the alirocumab of Sanofi / regeneron reached the main end point in phase III study In addition, the three companies also said that they would submit their product listing applications to FDA and EMA within the year Source address: http:// TSID = 17