Top 5 new drugs approved this year

Source: pharmaceutical economic news 2016-08-03 in the turbulent stock market, due to the sluggish IPO, the decline of enterprise merger and acquisition speed and the reduction of venture capital, the biopharmaceutical industry needs some "stimulus" to improve the current situation of the downturn Now, the signal is finally coming: 47 new drugs are expected to be approved this year, an impressive record If these new drugs can be approved this year, the total sales volume in the U.S market alone will reach US $23 billion in the fifth year after their launch Although this is much lower than the expected total sales volume of new drugs approved in 2015, it is still a good situation compared with the previous years (see the table below) In fact, the good situation last year is not a special phenomenon, because last year was the peak year of new drugs, and from this year, the new drug market will start to decline EP vantage analyzed the new molecular drugs (NMES) and biological preparations that have been approved and may be approved this year, predicted their sales in the U.S market five years later, and listed the top five new drugs respectively 2016 seems to be a crucial year for Roche, especially if ocrevus, a new drug for MS, can be approved for marketing Sales forecasts for the drug have soared since it released positive results in phase III clinical trials last October At present, ocrevus will be the best-selling new drug in the market this year At present, tecenttrip, another important Roche product, has been approved for marketing Tecengtrip, the first PD-L1 inhibitor, was approved in May for bladder cancer treatment The application of the drug for the treatment of non-small cell lung cancer is still in the approval stage According to the prescription drug consumer payment act, the review deadline is October 19 However, the prospect of tecengtrip in the treatment of NSCLC is hardly comparable to that of opdivo, the PD-1 inhibitor of Bristol Myers Squibb Evaluatepharma estimates that the latter will generate $11 billion in sales in 2021 Opdivo and another drug, yevoy, account for about 85% of the market of immunosuppressive checkpoint inhibitors Therefore, Roche must find new indications for its drugs and develop new combination drug solutions in order to gain a foothold in this market In addition, despite the fierce competition in the market, Merck's hepatitis C drug zepatier is still at the top of its sales forecast for the fifth year of new drugs approved this year, no doubt thanks to the firm's strong pricing strategy It's also surprising that octalva, the company's primary biliary cirrhosis drug, ranks third in the list What's variable is that more than half of the sales forecast comes from ocaliva's potential to treat a larger indication, nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) But up to now, it is uncertain whether ocaliva can be approved for NASH treatment In fact, there are several important drugs that are still in the process of approval, which may be launched in 2017, which affects the total number of new drugs to be launched this year Among them, two drugs have not yet submitted to the market, namely, Sanofi's dermatitis drug dupilumab and Lilly's new anti breast cancer drug abemaciclib However, both have obtained breakthrough treatment recognition that they should be approved for listing soon after submitting their application The deadline for the review of Eli Lilly's rheumatoid arthritis drug barictinib and Gilead Sciences' hepatitis B treatment drug tenofoviralafenide is January next year, but they are likely to obtain the listing permission in advance The fate of these four drugs may determine whether 2016 is a year of great success or a year of depression for new drugs, but no matter what the result is, this year is not as prosperous as 2015 If all this is a sign of a return to normalcy, not the start of a recession, pharmaceutical companies will be content ■ compiled by Liao Lianming ■ source EP vantage