Uncontrolled climate change will cause severe drought in the Amazon forest

An international study led by the University of Leeds warned that if no action is taken to curb carbon emissions, large areas of eastern Amazon will face severe drought by the end of this century

Therefore, a large amount of carbon dioxide will be released into the atmosphere from forests, increasing the greenhouse gas effect and promoting further climate change

Intensified drought in the Amazon dry season will further threaten the viability of most parts of the rainforest, because trees are already under water pressure and the risk of forest fires is greater

The predicted drought may also have a profound impact on the Amazon's water cycle, biodiversity, and the population living in the region

The study, published in the journal Environmental Research Letters, predicts that the decrease in rainfall is comparable to the droughts of 2005 and 2010, which caused a large number of tree deaths and had a significant impact on the Amazon community

The research team examined the factor that regulates the process by which forests transfer water from the soil to the atmosphere—that is, evapotranspiration

Dr.

She said: "People in Brazil and all over the world are naturally concerned about the future of the Amazon, as well as its precious carbon storage and biodiversity

"The Amazon faces the dual threats of deforestation and climate change

This new study reveals possible changes in the Amazon climate in the event of extreme warming

The Amazon Basin has the largest tropical rain forest in the world and plays a key role in the global carbon and water cycle

However, existing climate models are divided on whether the Amazon will become wetter or drier

The research team analyzed the results of 38 known Amazon climate models

According to the new study, only one-third of the 38 models correctly reproduced the interaction between the atmosphere and the land surface as shown in previous Amazon field surveys

By intensively studying this group model, the uncertainty of rainfall changes throughout the Amazon Basin has been reduced by half

The team has shown a broad consensus in predicting future changes in rainfall.

Dr.
Cayo Coelho from the National Institute of Space Research in Brazil is a co-author of this study
.

He said: "It is important to understand how the Amazon climate may change in the future
.

"This study shows that the reduction in dry season rainfall in parts of the Amazon may be similar to the Amazon drought in 2005 and 2010, which caused a large number of tree deaths and had a significant impact on the Amazon community
.
"

Journal Reference:
1.
JCA Baker, L Garcia-Carreras, W Buermann, D Castilho de Souza, JH Marsham, PY Kubota, M Gloor, CAS Coelho, DV Spracklen.
Robust Amazon precipitation projections in climate models that capture realistic land--atmosphere interactions .
Environmental Research Letters, 2021; 16 (7): 074002 DOI: 10.
1088/1748-9326/abfb2e