-
Categories
-
Pharmaceutical Intermediates
-
Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients
-
Food Additives
- Industrial Coatings
- Agrochemicals
- Dyes and Pigments
- Surfactant
- Flavors and Fragrances
- Chemical Reagents
- Catalyst and Auxiliary
- Natural Products
- Inorganic Chemistry
-
Organic Chemistry
-
Biochemical Engineering
- Analytical Chemistry
- Cosmetic Ingredient
-
Pharmaceutical Intermediates
Promotion
ECHEMI Mall
Wholesale
Weekly Price
Exhibition
News
-
Trade Service
Recently, the epidemic has reappeared in many parts of the country
.
On January 6, Lanzhou University's "New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemic Global Prediction System" website released the forecast and analysis of the sudden new coronary pneumonia epidemic in Xi'an on 12.
9
.
The details are as follows.
Since the local confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia and local asymptomatic infections were reported in Xi'an, Shaanxi Province on December 9, 2021, as of 24:00 on January 5, 2022, Xi'an City has reported a total of 1,856 confirmed cases (local, data Source: National Health Commission, the pink circles in Figure 1 represent actual data)
.
The current round of the epidemic in Xi'an is imported from abroad, and it is a delta variant, which is highly contagious; the low temperature in winter makes the new coronavirus more active, increasing the risk of its rapid spread; in addition, there are three chains of infection in this round of epidemic in Xi'an.
There is a lack of connection between the chains of infection, showing the characteristics of "hidden transmission", and the epidemic situation is more complicated
.
Since the outbreak of the epidemic in Xi'an, the forecast team has followed up the epidemic prevention and control situation in Xi'an in a timely manner, and comprehensively considered the local city characteristics, meteorological conditions, and control measures in the "Global Forecast System for the New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemic"
.
The updated forecast results of the system show that under the timely and effective control measures taken by the current government, the current round of epidemic in Xi'an is expected to be brought under control around January 15, 2022, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases is expected to be about 2,115 (1703-2526).
people)
.
Figure 1 The updated prediction results of the epidemic situation in Xi'an The epidemic prediction team of the Western Ecological Security Collaborative Innovation Center of Lanzhou University (http://covid-19.
lzu.
edu.
cn/) On January 6, 2022, Lanzhou University first announced the accuracy rate of the epidemic prediction system 94.
62% On December 31, Lanzhou University's "Global Prediction System for the New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemic" website, taking the sudden outbreak in Hulunbuir as an example, released its own prediction effect test formula and prediction accuracy rate for the first time
.
Prediction effect test formula: Figure 2 Evaluation of Hulunbuir epidemic prediction results The cumulative number of confirmed cases in this round of the epidemic is 558
.
On the day the epidemic was under control (December 18, 2021), the system predicted that the cumulative number of confirmed cases in this round of epidemic in Hulunbuir was 588, and the prediction accuracy of the cumulative number of confirmed cases was 94.
62%
.
The world's first global epidemic prediction system has previously accurately predicted the epidemic situation in many places.
Since the outbreak of the global new crown pneumonia epidemic, Professor Huang Jianping, director of the Collaborative Innovation Center for the Western Ecological Security Ministry of Lanzhou University, organized and led the center team to successfully develop a Lanzhou University.
The "COVID-19 Global Prediction System" of the University's entire intellectual property
.
How powerful is this system? In August last year, it accurately predicted the epidemic situation in Henan and Yangzhou
.
In September, the epidemic situation in Putian and Xiamen was accurately predicted again
.
According to reports, Lanzhou University's epidemic forecast system "forecasts are mainly divided into daily forecasts and sudden epidemic forecasts
.
Daily work includes forecasts for the next day, month and two quarters for more than 190 countries around the world, every 10 days.
Data for monthly and seasonal forecasts is updated once
.
"New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemic Global Prediction System" website screenshot "The system is a prediction system that combines statistical-dynamic methods in climate prediction with epidemiological models, and is an innovative result of interdisciplinary knowledge fusion
.
Traditional epidemiological models are only suitable for regional simulation and forecasting, while the global forecasting system we have established covers a wider range of space and does global forecasting
.
"Professor Huang Jianping said
.
The "New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemic Global Prediction System" flowchart The "New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemic Prediction System" (GPCP) is based on real-time updated epidemiological data.
Reliable forecast
.
Some universities and related institutions abroad have launched epidemic prediction systems before, but they only focus on the prediction of the epidemic situation in the United States.
Similarly, there are other schools in China that predict the domestic epidemic situation, but they do
not continue
.
It is a global forecasting system, and is currently the only system in the world that insists on making forecasts
.
"On June 8, 2021, the National Science Review published online the latest report of Prof.
Jianping Huang's team entitled "The oscillation-outbreaks characteristic of the COVID-19 pandemic".
The results reveal that the sudden rise in oscillations is the main feature of the spread of the global new crown pneumonia epidemic
.
The successive oscillations are mainly affected by seasonal changes and lag in case reporting, while short-term mutations are mainly caused by the gathering of people
.
This result is a global new crown pneumonia epidemic.
The scientific modeling and parameterization of the epidemic provides an important theoretical basis
.
On January 31, 2021, Zhong Nanshan, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, also praised: "The forecast of the 'Global New Crown Epidemic Prediction System' developed by the Lanzhou University Western Ecological Security Provincial and Ministry Co-construction Center is quite reliable
.
" The team of Academician Huang Jianping led Lanzhou University Professor Huang Jianping of the prediction system was elected as an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences on November 18, 2021
.
Picture source of Academician Huang Jianping: Baidu Encyclopedia Academician Huang Jianping is an alumnus of Nanjing University of Information Technology (formerly Nanjing Meteorological Institute) in 1978 majoring in atmospheric sounding
.
He studied diligently during school and obtained a double degree in atmospheric sounding and weather dynamics.
He is a typical "learning tyrant"
.
After graduating from an undergraduate degree, Academician Huang Jianping completed his master's, doctoral and post-doctoral studies at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou University and Peking University
.
In more than ten years, the Ministry of Education's semi-arid climate key laboratory, the Belt and Road Atmospheric Science Research Center, and the Western Security Ministry Co-constructed Collaborative Innovation Center have brought out a "Yellow Danian"->
.
They combined the advanced technology of statistical-dynamic climate prediction with epidemiological models, comprehensively considered factors such as temperature, humidity and government control measures, and used big data to determine the development trend of the epidemic
.
Source: Compiled by Moge Academic from Landa’s New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemic Prediction System, CCTV News, Baidu Encyclopedia and other sources | Compiled by China Biotechnology Network | Swagpp Click “Read the original text” below to download the Mays Medical APP
.
On January 6, Lanzhou University's "New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemic Global Prediction System" website released the forecast and analysis of the sudden new coronary pneumonia epidemic in Xi'an on 12.
9
.
The details are as follows.
Since the local confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia and local asymptomatic infections were reported in Xi'an, Shaanxi Province on December 9, 2021, as of 24:00 on January 5, 2022, Xi'an City has reported a total of 1,856 confirmed cases (local, data Source: National Health Commission, the pink circles in Figure 1 represent actual data)
.
The current round of the epidemic in Xi'an is imported from abroad, and it is a delta variant, which is highly contagious; the low temperature in winter makes the new coronavirus more active, increasing the risk of its rapid spread; in addition, there are three chains of infection in this round of epidemic in Xi'an.
There is a lack of connection between the chains of infection, showing the characteristics of "hidden transmission", and the epidemic situation is more complicated
.
Since the outbreak of the epidemic in Xi'an, the forecast team has followed up the epidemic prevention and control situation in Xi'an in a timely manner, and comprehensively considered the local city characteristics, meteorological conditions, and control measures in the "Global Forecast System for the New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemic"
.
The updated forecast results of the system show that under the timely and effective control measures taken by the current government, the current round of epidemic in Xi'an is expected to be brought under control around January 15, 2022, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases is expected to be about 2,115 (1703-2526).
people)
.
Figure 1 The updated prediction results of the epidemic situation in Xi'an The epidemic prediction team of the Western Ecological Security Collaborative Innovation Center of Lanzhou University (http://covid-19.
lzu.
edu.
cn/) On January 6, 2022, Lanzhou University first announced the accuracy rate of the epidemic prediction system 94.
62% On December 31, Lanzhou University's "Global Prediction System for the New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemic" website, taking the sudden outbreak in Hulunbuir as an example, released its own prediction effect test formula and prediction accuracy rate for the first time
.
Prediction effect test formula: Figure 2 Evaluation of Hulunbuir epidemic prediction results The cumulative number of confirmed cases in this round of the epidemic is 558
.
On the day the epidemic was under control (December 18, 2021), the system predicted that the cumulative number of confirmed cases in this round of epidemic in Hulunbuir was 588, and the prediction accuracy of the cumulative number of confirmed cases was 94.
62%
.
The world's first global epidemic prediction system has previously accurately predicted the epidemic situation in many places.
Since the outbreak of the global new crown pneumonia epidemic, Professor Huang Jianping, director of the Collaborative Innovation Center for the Western Ecological Security Ministry of Lanzhou University, organized and led the center team to successfully develop a Lanzhou University.
The "COVID-19 Global Prediction System" of the University's entire intellectual property
.
How powerful is this system? In August last year, it accurately predicted the epidemic situation in Henan and Yangzhou
.
In September, the epidemic situation in Putian and Xiamen was accurately predicted again
.
According to reports, Lanzhou University's epidemic forecast system "forecasts are mainly divided into daily forecasts and sudden epidemic forecasts
.
Daily work includes forecasts for the next day, month and two quarters for more than 190 countries around the world, every 10 days.
Data for monthly and seasonal forecasts is updated once
.
"New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemic Global Prediction System" website screenshot "The system is a prediction system that combines statistical-dynamic methods in climate prediction with epidemiological models, and is an innovative result of interdisciplinary knowledge fusion
.
Traditional epidemiological models are only suitable for regional simulation and forecasting, while the global forecasting system we have established covers a wider range of space and does global forecasting
.
"Professor Huang Jianping said
.
The "New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemic Global Prediction System" flowchart The "New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemic Prediction System" (GPCP) is based on real-time updated epidemiological data.
Reliable forecast
.
Some universities and related institutions abroad have launched epidemic prediction systems before, but they only focus on the prediction of the epidemic situation in the United States.
Similarly, there are other schools in China that predict the domestic epidemic situation, but they do
not continue
.
It is a global forecasting system, and is currently the only system in the world that insists on making forecasts
.
"On June 8, 2021, the National Science Review published online the latest report of Prof.
Jianping Huang's team entitled "The oscillation-outbreaks characteristic of the COVID-19 pandemic".
The results reveal that the sudden rise in oscillations is the main feature of the spread of the global new crown pneumonia epidemic
.
The successive oscillations are mainly affected by seasonal changes and lag in case reporting, while short-term mutations are mainly caused by the gathering of people
.
This result is a global new crown pneumonia epidemic.
The scientific modeling and parameterization of the epidemic provides an important theoretical basis
.
On January 31, 2021, Zhong Nanshan, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, also praised: "The forecast of the 'Global New Crown Epidemic Prediction System' developed by the Lanzhou University Western Ecological Security Provincial and Ministry Co-construction Center is quite reliable
.
" The team of Academician Huang Jianping led Lanzhou University Professor Huang Jianping of the prediction system was elected as an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences on November 18, 2021
.
Picture source of Academician Huang Jianping: Baidu Encyclopedia Academician Huang Jianping is an alumnus of Nanjing University of Information Technology (formerly Nanjing Meteorological Institute) in 1978 majoring in atmospheric sounding
.
He studied diligently during school and obtained a double degree in atmospheric sounding and weather dynamics.
He is a typical "learning tyrant"
.
After graduating from an undergraduate degree, Academician Huang Jianping completed his master's, doctoral and post-doctoral studies at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou University and Peking University
.
In more than ten years, the Ministry of Education's semi-arid climate key laboratory, the Belt and Road Atmospheric Science Research Center, and the Western Security Ministry Co-constructed Collaborative Innovation Center have brought out a "Yellow Danian"->
.
They combined the advanced technology of statistical-dynamic climate prediction with epidemiological models, comprehensively considered factors such as temperature, humidity and government control measures, and used big data to determine the development trend of the epidemic
.
Source: Compiled by Moge Academic from Landa’s New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemic Prediction System, CCTV News, Baidu Encyclopedia and other sources | Compiled by China Biotechnology Network | Swagpp Click “Read the original text” below to download the Mays Medical APP
