Upstream market volatility range PVC market weakness downward behavior

From the perspective of price operation trend, PVC index price is currently in the lower edge of the shock range of 7100-6585 since May 2018, and since mid-August adjustment, the oscillator MACD fast and slow line golden cross upward and red bar signal synchronous appear, the price center of gravity has gradually moved up in the last 5 days, and it is expected that there will be a super fall rebound in the short term
.

International crude oil futures prices broke through the volatility range since July, especially Brent main force broke through a new high since May this year, crude oil prices may continue to inertia higher
.
As a positively correlated variety of PVC, strong crude oil prices play a strong cost support role
for PVC.

There are not many domestic spot supplies, and the transaction is tepid
.
Participants maintained wait-and-see and actively shipped goods, and price fluctuations in local markets were limited
.
As of the close of 5 type ordinary calcium carbide, the mainstream self-pickup quotation in East China was 6840-6910 yuan / ton; 6900-6960 yuan / ton self-pickup in South China; Shandong mainstream 6800-6850 yuan / ton delivery, Hebei market mainstream 6750-6800 yuan / ton delivery
.

At present, the inventory is low, the spot premium pattern is conducive to the rebound of PVC futures prices, at the same time, the downstream inventory is not high, and the peak season demand is in, and the upstream is because of a wave of decline in the early stage, the production profit is significantly squeezed, which is not conducive to the release of later production, and the above factors make the short-term price of PVC still supported
.

In terms of products: PVC futures prices mainly fluctuated and fell, and spot prices were affected by them, and the center of gravity shifted
downward.
At the same time, the PVC market is in the off-season of consumption, the downstream wait-and-see attitude is dominant, the enthusiasm for procurement is not high, the actual trading volume is sluggish, and the demand side is weak, resulting in a continuous decline in the market, and the mainstream quotation range is 6650-7050 yuan / ton
.

PVC analysts believe that PVC futures have recently fluctuated and fallen, the demand side is weak, and the market trading is cold, resulting in a continuous decline
in prices.
It is expected that it will be difficult to make a big improvement on the demand side in the short term, and the market will be the main
player under the weak market.
In the long run, the fourth quarter is the consumption off-season, expected to be bearish, it is expected that the market will be the main under the shock, PVC 5 mainstream quotation 6600-7000 yuan / ton
.