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Industrial demand is the main reason for the increase.
After entering March, the price of urea showed an upward trend after a slight decline.
Up to now, the mainstream ex-factory prices in Shandong, Henan and other places have risen to 1350-1400 yuan/ton, and the mainstream ex-factory prices in Shanxi have also risen to 1,300 yuan/ton, with prices rising nearly 100 yuan/ton on average.
Mao Zixue, executive deputy general manager of Henan Energy and Chemical Sales Branch, said that the current agricultural market demand in Henan has basically ended, and the fertilizer for wheat Spring Festival in North China has also come to an end.
The rise in urea prices is mainly due to the demand from industrial compound fertilizer companies.
Pull.
He told reporters: "Due to the continuous decline in the price of urea in the early stage, compound fertilizer companies are not very motivated to obtain goods.
With the recent gradual recovery of the operating rate of compound fertilizer companies, the demand for urea is relatively large, which has also driven the price of urea.
At present, the mainstream transaction price has risen to 1,350 yuan/ton; in agriculture, the price change is not obvious.
The current low-end price is still at 1,300 yuan/ton, and market transactions are limited.
” The same is true in Shandong, where industrial orders are currently abundant.
Enterprises also tentatively raised prices slightly.
According to Ye Guoqing, manager of the fertilizer sales department of Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co.
, Ltd.
, due to the limited inventory in the early stage, with the recent increase in the operating rate of compound fertilizer companies, the order situation of urea companies is better.
In addition, due to the current agricultural market There is also a certain demand, so the overall market has a better volume, and the price is also showing an upward trend.
As the operating rate of urea companies continues to be high, although prices have risen briefly after the Spring Festival, market expectations are not optimistic.
With the concentrated release of agricultural demand and the relay of industrial demand, the urea industry continues to rebound at a low level.
The market is still not optimistic about the sustainability of price increases, but in order to ensure production volume, compound fertilizer companies are still motivated to obtain goods, and there is not much room for bargaining.
Limited room for growth in the later period Although the price of urea has seen a sustained small increase recently, the market is not optimistic about the trend in the later period.
Mao Zixue believes that according to the current urea market operating rate, the price of urea is not likely to continue to rise, and it is expected that the price may fall at the end of March and early April.
"At present, the urea market as a whole still shows a state of serious overcapacity.
The short-term price increase is a manifestation of market shortages, but this increase is difficult to continue.
From the domestic market, with the end of the spring farming period, the demand for urea will be obvious.
Decline, although compound fertilizer companies have a certain demand, the market is not out of stock, so there is limited room for price increase in the later market; in addition, from the perspective of the international market, the demand is also not Not optimistic, the current port inventory is large, and India’s bidding has not been launched, and port backflows have appeared in some areas.
This is also a performance of not optimistic about export expectations.
"Mao Zixue said that due to the impact of overcapacity, the price of urea in 2016 may maintain a differential fluctuation of 1,200-1400 yuan/ton.
The current price is close to 1,400 yuan/ton, so the price is expected to fall in April.
Ye Guoqing also said that in the short term, the price of urea has basically peaked and the room for growth is limited.
With the end of spring farming and fertilizer use, if the export situation is not clearly positive, the price will fall.
However, due to the support of cost, The decline is not large.
The increase in electricity prices may accelerate the reduction of capacity.
The current focus of the urea market is the increase in electricity prices in April.
In this regard, Mao Zixue believes that the increase in electricity prices will help the industry’s acceleration of capacity reduction to a certain extent.
Mao Zixue’s analysis said: “If, at current prices, only 20%-30% of urea companies with new coal gasification equipment in China can maintain profitability, 70%-80% of the companies are still losing money, and electricity prices rise, the traditional The electricity consumption of a ton of urea produced by a urea enterprise equipment is 1000-1200 kWh.
If every kWh of electricity increases by 6 cents, the cost of urea will increase by 60-80 yuan/ton, which will increase the company’s losses and make The withdrawal of some backward production capacity accelerated.
Mao Zixue emphasized that in recent years, the nitrogen fertilizer industry has been relatively slow to reduce capacity, which is also the main reason for the long-term low urea price.
If the urea industry has a better capacity reduction in 2016, it will be conducive to the recovery of the market.
"In fact, it is.
In Henan, due to the low price of urea and the government's strengthening of environmental protection supervision, some small enterprises have been closed due to long-term losses, and the possibility of resuming production in the later period is unlikely.
"Ye Guoqing believes that the price of urea is mainly determined by demand.
The increase in electricity prices will definitely increase the production costs of enterprises, but the impact on prices is limited.
Ye Guoqing also agrees that the increase in electricity prices is conducive to the reduction of capacity in the nitrogen fertilizer industry.
Over the past two years, the nitrogen fertilizer industry has increased its efforts to reduce overcapacity, but the effect is not obvious.
This has led to the low-level operation of urea prices.
If the production cost of the company increases, some of the backward production capacity will definitely withdraw completely, which will benefit the industry.
development of.
"
After entering March, the price of urea showed an upward trend after a slight decline.
Up to now, the mainstream ex-factory prices in Shandong, Henan and other places have risen to 1350-1400 yuan/ton, and the mainstream ex-factory prices in Shanxi have also risen to 1,300 yuan/ton, with prices rising nearly 100 yuan/ton on average.
Mao Zixue, executive deputy general manager of Henan Energy and Chemical Sales Branch, said that the current agricultural market demand in Henan has basically ended, and the fertilizer for wheat Spring Festival in North China has also come to an end.
The rise in urea prices is mainly due to the demand from industrial compound fertilizer companies.
Pull.
He told reporters: "Due to the continuous decline in the price of urea in the early stage, compound fertilizer companies are not very motivated to obtain goods.
With the recent gradual recovery of the operating rate of compound fertilizer companies, the demand for urea is relatively large, which has also driven the price of urea.
At present, the mainstream transaction price has risen to 1,350 yuan/ton; in agriculture, the price change is not obvious.
The current low-end price is still at 1,300 yuan/ton, and market transactions are limited.
” The same is true in Shandong, where industrial orders are currently abundant.
Enterprises also tentatively raised prices slightly.
According to Ye Guoqing, manager of the fertilizer sales department of Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co.
, Ltd.
, due to the limited inventory in the early stage, with the recent increase in the operating rate of compound fertilizer companies, the order situation of urea companies is better.
In addition, due to the current agricultural market There is also a certain demand, so the overall market has a better volume, and the price is also showing an upward trend.
As the operating rate of urea companies continues to be high, although prices have risen briefly after the Spring Festival, market expectations are not optimistic.
With the concentrated release of agricultural demand and the relay of industrial demand, the urea industry continues to rebound at a low level.
The market is still not optimistic about the sustainability of price increases, but in order to ensure production volume, compound fertilizer companies are still motivated to obtain goods, and there is not much room for bargaining.
Limited room for growth in the later period Although the price of urea has seen a sustained small increase recently, the market is not optimistic about the trend in the later period.
Mao Zixue believes that according to the current urea market operating rate, the price of urea is not likely to continue to rise, and it is expected that the price may fall at the end of March and early April.
"At present, the urea market as a whole still shows a state of serious overcapacity.
The short-term price increase is a manifestation of market shortages, but this increase is difficult to continue.
From the domestic market, with the end of the spring farming period, the demand for urea will be obvious.
Decline, although compound fertilizer companies have a certain demand, the market is not out of stock, so there is limited room for price increase in the later market; in addition, from the perspective of the international market, the demand is also not Not optimistic, the current port inventory is large, and India’s bidding has not been launched, and port backflows have appeared in some areas.
This is also a performance of not optimistic about export expectations.
"Mao Zixue said that due to the impact of overcapacity, the price of urea in 2016 may maintain a differential fluctuation of 1,200-1400 yuan/ton.
The current price is close to 1,400 yuan/ton, so the price is expected to fall in April.
Ye Guoqing also said that in the short term, the price of urea has basically peaked and the room for growth is limited.
With the end of spring farming and fertilizer use, if the export situation is not clearly positive, the price will fall.
However, due to the support of cost, The decline is not large.
The increase in electricity prices may accelerate the reduction of capacity.
The current focus of the urea market is the increase in electricity prices in April.
In this regard, Mao Zixue believes that the increase in electricity prices will help the industry’s acceleration of capacity reduction to a certain extent.
Mao Zixue’s analysis said: “If, at current prices, only 20%-30% of urea companies with new coal gasification equipment in China can maintain profitability, 70%-80% of the companies are still losing money, and electricity prices rise, the traditional The electricity consumption of a ton of urea produced by a urea enterprise equipment is 1000-1200 kWh.
If every kWh of electricity increases by 6 cents, the cost of urea will increase by 60-80 yuan/ton, which will increase the company’s losses and make The withdrawal of some backward production capacity accelerated.
Mao Zixue emphasized that in recent years, the nitrogen fertilizer industry has been relatively slow to reduce capacity, which is also the main reason for the long-term low urea price.
If the urea industry has a better capacity reduction in 2016, it will be conducive to the recovery of the market.
"In fact, it is.
In Henan, due to the low price of urea and the government's strengthening of environmental protection supervision, some small enterprises have been closed due to long-term losses, and the possibility of resuming production in the later period is unlikely.
"Ye Guoqing believes that the price of urea is mainly determined by demand.
The increase in electricity prices will definitely increase the production costs of enterprises, but the impact on prices is limited.
Ye Guoqing also agrees that the increase in electricity prices is conducive to the reduction of capacity in the nitrogen fertilizer industry.
Over the past two years, the nitrogen fertilizer industry has increased its efforts to reduce overcapacity, but the effect is not obvious.
This has led to the low-level operation of urea prices.
If the production cost of the company increases, some of the backward production capacity will definitely withdraw completely, which will benefit the industry.
development of.
"
