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The current spot price of urea is still rising steadily, and the rising cycle that started since the third quarter of last year has not ended.
Entering June, urea spot is expected to maintain a strong trend, and urea futures prices are still driving upwards, but we need to beware of negative policies.
Pay attention to the expectation of new production capacity
As of May 26, the daily output of urea was about 159,100 tons, which was at a medium to high level.
Affected by the short-term shutdown of large installations such as Ordos Industry, Shanxi Fengxi, and China Coal Ordos, the short-term operating rate of the urea industry is difficult to increase significantly.
It is understood that the Henan Junhua plant, which has been parked for nearly three months, will gradually resume at the end of May, and it is expected to restart heavy volume in June.
In terms of new production capacity, it is heard that Shandong Runyin Biochemical Phase III 1.
4 million tons of urea plant, Anhui Haoyuan’s 700,000 tons of urea capacity replacement plant, and Ulan Da Fertilizer Project 1.
Continuous procurement and replenishment
June is the stocking period for domestic summer agricultural fertilizer demand, such as Northeast corn topdressing, North China corn base fertilizer and topdressing, and southern early rice topdressing and mid-season rice base fertilizer.
Due to the long period of urea price increase in this round, from the perspective of agricultural demand, the current inventory is not high, and there is still a large replenishment rigidity in the later period.
In addition, according to the report on the supply and demand situation of agricultural products issued by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs in May, due to the good income of corn planting and the high enthusiasm of farmers to expand planting, the willingness to switch to corn varieties such as soybeans and sugar beets in the northeast production areas has increased.
Subsequent printing is still expected to increase
According to data from the Ministry of Fertilizers, India’s estimated demand for the Kharif season in the 2021/2022 fiscal year is 17.
75 million tons, which is not much different from the actual sales of 17.
786 million tons of urea in the Kharif season in the 2020/2021 fiscal year.
In short, the current urea market fundamentals are good.
However, as an agricultural product, urea is likely to cause great concern at the government level.
