Vice President of the Association of Directors of the Ministry of Housing and Construction: The new policy of the property market is difficult to make a big difference

China Paint Network
News: recently issued a series of new policies in the property market, in the industry caused varying degrees of response, different market participants on the property market policy understanding and judgment are different. But on the whole, everyone's expectations for deepening market-oriented reform are consistent, and China's property market has learned the importance of establishing a long-term mechanism and respecting the laws of the market itself after many rounds of regulation. since the
twice session", in order to boost the property market, stabilize the economy, the real estate sector added a variety of new policies, but the overall market response is flat, it can be foreseen that the property market is in urgent need of policy re-effort, the government's policy reserves there is no shortage of more "sharp weapons" ready to go, some second- and third-tier city governments may even be desperate to give the market "drugs." These policies were originally expected to let the real estate market sales rebound, hedge against the economic downturn, to prevent economic deflation, but looking back at the 2009 round of strong real estate market stimulus policies led to a surge in speculation prevailing in the market and the 2013 "National Five" policy led to a sharp decline in the real estate market two outcomes, people are inevitably worried.
First of all, in the last round of urbanization and real estate industry rapid development of the golden decade, investment, speculation is serious, especially in some second- and third-tier cities, the government for land finance, developers in order to make quick money, by any means to build empty cities, ghost cities, especially in some resources exhausted, industrial hollowing out, the net outflow of the second- and third-tier cities, empty "concrete forests" everywhere. Harsh facts show that healing real estate wounds is not a one-off.
second, the "card" to stabilize housing consumption is not yet finished, the policy is also trending, layer by layer plus code, constant force is a large probability event. But if the introduction of some "sharp" policies, such as in the first-tier cities if there is no perfect alternative policy on the blind liberalization of the purchase restrictions policy, too much force, overlay may lead to a sharp rise in housing prices, the real estate market once again climbed to the top of the "roller coaster", repeat the last round of urban real estate kidnapping economy, kidnapping the government farce.
In order to avoid the above two tendencies, as the top-level design of stable housing consumption policy, the current policy should be from the overall moderate grasp of the effect, on the other way, if the policy continues to be decentralized, fragmented, self-fluidization, either "flash flood" to make the market surge;
this, according to my personal long-term research, it is recommended that in the future policy guidance process, to accurately grasp the following links.
focus on interval regulation. In the current economic downturn, the government has introduced real estate regulation and control policies to stabilize and even stimulate housing consumption to boost market confidence is very necessary, but to master the balance, more focused on guiding the real estate market to the normal pattern.
the ultimate goal of regulation and control is to make the real estate market healthy and benign development, but the current real estate market is like a canoe, different types of urban response is different, the central government also stressed that each city should be differentiated regulation. At the same time, the effectiveness of regulatory policies should have a certain range of space, to be capped, can not break through the "ceiling" leading to a surge; If the introduction of a similar 2009 70% interest rate, the policy overlay is too strong, will be a sharp rise in the volume of prices again pushed up the market, into the situation of investment speculation, and ultimately still increase the risk of market crisis.
focus on supply and demand docking. This stable housing consumption policy in the second home down payment ratio decreased, second-hand housing transaction sales tax "changed five to two", to bring home buyers a good side, reduce the cost of consumers to transfer housing. But even if the policy gives consumers a "money bag" and boosts purchasing power, they may not be willing to buy a bad building.
of the current economic transformation is that the market is down and consumption is rising. The last round of urbanization due to large-scale empty city, do not pay attention to the quality of real estate, resulting in the emergence of a lot of rotten tail buildings, causing serious oversupply. Therefore, without targeted efforts to improve the quality of vacant properties, developers wishful thinking to run the amount of inventory in order to withdraw funds will be futile.