Wallpaper industry detonated investment fever facing the crisis of overcapacity

China Paint Network
News: It is predicted that in 2013 wallpaper product supply growth will exceed the growth rate of demand, the wallpaper industry is expected to have 356 production lines by the end of this year, with 5.3 square meters / volume as the specification, 3600 rolls per day production speed, the end of the year production will far exceed domestic demand. At the recent "Wallpaper Industry Innovation Forum of the New Decade", wallpaper bigwigs unanimously reflected that China's wallpaper industry is currently facing a crisis of overcapacity, and short-term difficult to change.
According to conservative forecasts, by the end of this year there will be 356 wallpaper production lines, from the production capacity of machinery and equipment, each production line assumed to run 12 hours a day, the annual production of about 1.3 million rolls of wallpaper, which means that the wallpaper industry in 2011 will be about 460 million rolls of output value. According to statistics 2010 domestic wallpaper market demand for a total of 160 million volumes, assuming that the market demand in 2011 is also set at 160 million volumes (not to consider the increase in market demand), then from the 2011 output, actual demand comparison, the wallpaper industry this year will be surplus of about 300 million volumes.
the same time, the reporter learned in the course of the interview 356 production lines are only conservative figures, many business leaders said that the current figures are much more than these. According to Maburg Wallpapers China General Manager Lu Huanxuan, "a few years ago, China's wallpaper manufacturing enterprises less than 30, comparison system sales enterprises but 10." Today, wallpaper enterprise production lines have more than 800. In his view, manufacturing companies from 30 to 800 production lines, the existing market demand can not "feed" the production capacity of 800 production lines. Wallpaper industry supply and demand balance has been tilted, supply exceeds demand is a clear trend.
interview found that the same views with Lu Huanxuan people are not in the minority, of which the representative is the general manager of Ruibao wallpaper Zhang Yugang. He pointed out that the current situation of the wallpaper market is worrying, there are more than 1000 brands competing for China's wallpaper market, unknown real situation of people have entered the "siege", but the market is far from the optimistic imagination. According to his estimate, "by the end of this year, the number of equipment manufacturers will reach 225, production lines will also increase at the rate of 20 per month, when the national theoretical production capacity will reach 900 million volumes." The ratio between supply and demand in the market reached 1.6:9, as measured by china's total import and domestic sales of 160 million volumes last year. "In his view, overcapacity is no doubt, and mathematical calculations can be used to get the answer.
economists have said that the market economy itself is a surplus economy, as long as the maintenance of a level playing field, to ensure information symmetry, moderate surplus will be conducive to market development; But tilting oversupply exceeds demand, overcapacity will cause disorderly competition in the market. "The market capacity is 75%, the surplus is 25%, the market is still an orderly competition market; But the current ratio of 1.6:9 will only plunge the industry into a vicious circle. After
four or five years of development, more than 30 wallpaper brand team "grown" to more than 1000, the rapid development of most of the industry called for vigilance against "bubbles." According to Zhang , deputy secretary-general of China Building Decoration Association, subject to real estate development, wallpaper industry downturn, many enterprises ready for the "cotton wool" has been prepared for the winter. But outsiders do not understand this, textile, fabric, flooring, cabinets, paper and other wallpaper industry "outsiders" have intervened in the domestic wallpaper market. The reason for this phenomenon is no more than the interest-driven.
reporters found that the wallpaper market potential has become one of the main reasons for "outsiders" to compete for food. Figures show that more than 90 per cent of indoor walls in Japan and South Korea are covered by wallpaper, while only 5 per cent in China. Analysis of the data shows that the two are very different. There have been industry insiders described, "in Japan, South Korea, as long as someone has a place, there will be wallpaper." "Seems like a joke, but it alludes to China's wallpaper market has great potential, invisible for these "outsiders" to provide unlimited imagination space.
, the illusion of "high profits" also provides room for "outsiders" to imagine. After years of development, decoration costs in all aspects of the price is becoming increasingly transparent, only belong to the "po-come" wallpaper to give the impression of "high profits", but this is not the case. Juran Vice President Jin Baorong said, "Wallpapers this industry, especially imported wallpapers, enterprise capital turnover is very low, inventory pressure is also divided up to a long time." Wallpaper this industry can be said to be chaoyang industry, but calculated down the industry capital return on investment is not high. At
, the wallpaper industry market share of only 5%, and Japan and South Korea and other countries still have a certain gap, market demand has not yet been fully released. Coupled with a series of real estate control policies introduced by the state, the risk of overcapacity has been increased invisibly. Some people in the industry pointed out that the wallpaper industry overcapacity, will bring wallpaper products low price, more and more enterprises involved with a more brutal "price war" vortex, forming a chaotic operating environment, resulting in lower and lower profit margins for production enterprises.
The comments were recognized by the industry, Grammy Wallpaper Chairman Yanhua Yanhua added, "the illusion of high profits attracts a lot of people to invest, which will inevitably lead to overcapacity, and then lead to industry chaos, such as: disorderly price war, for profit to reduce product quality, completely regardless of research and development and brand cultivation, copy infringement, etc., in the long run will hit consumer trust in wallpaper products." "
wallpaper industry in China's development time is not short, from the 1980s to the present, has experienced three ups and downs, each "fall" is no more than the industry's own disorderly competition. According to industry analysis, in the long run, disorderly development will make the wallpaper industry repeat the old mistakes, not only to their own investment to bring certain risks, but also to the industry will bring a huge impact.