Wang Haikun, Bi Jun, professor and collaborator of Nanjing University: China's carbon dioxide emissions may peak by 2030

Professor Wang Haikun and Professor Bi Jun from the school of environment, Nanjing University and the State Key Laboratory of pollution control and resource research have made important progress in the research field of urban climate change risk management The research results "China's CO2 emission or peak before 2030: Based on the prediction of urban emission characteristics and development level" (China's CO2 peak before 2030 implied) From characteristics and growth of cities was published in the latest issue of nature Sustainability (DOI: 10.1038 / s41893-019-0339-6) The 2015 climate change conference in Paris further defined the goal of controlling the global average temperature rise within 2C in this century As the largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world, China's commitment to reach its peak carbon dioxide emissions around 2030 is essential to achieve this goal With the continuous progress of urbanization, it is expected that by 2030, the proportion of urban population in China will reach 70% Cities have become the key to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and air pollution Figure 1 China's urban carbon dioxide emission level (a) spatial distribution and population density of 50 cities; (b) emissions from northern cities; and (c) emissions from southern cities (source: nature sustainability) The research team led b y Nanjing University In 2010, research on urban climate change risk management began, and the results have been published in atmospheric chemistry and physics, energy policy and other international important academic journals This time in nature ·According to the research published in sustainable development, through the integration of multi-source data such as energy consumption, social economy and land use, the carbon emission information database of different types of cities, sub sectors and continuous time series in China has been developed Based on the simulation of the relationship between the emissions of these cities and economic development, the Gauss Kuznets curve model has been proposed and Monte Carlo simulation has been applied, The peak value and peak time of carbon emission in China are predicted It is found that the carbon dioxide emission of each city conforms to the Gauss Kuznets curve, and the peak value of carbon emission of most cities appears near the per capita GDP of 21000 US dollars (2011 purchasing power parity) It is further predicted that the total carbon dioxide emission of China may reach the peak between 2021 and 2025, with the peak range of 13-16 billion tons Of course, to achieve this optimistic path of carbon dioxide emissions, we need to fully consider the significant differences in urban carbon dioxide emissions caused by economic structure, urban spatial morphology and geographical location, and scientifically formulate and implement the urban low-carbon development strategy Figure 2 Prediction of China's per capita carbon dioxide emission peak based on urban emission characteristics (source: nature sustainability) Professor Wang Haikun is the first and corresponding author of the paper, Professor Bi Jun is the co corresponding author, and Associate Professor Lu Xi of Tsinghua University and associate researcher Deng Yu of Chinese Academy of Sciences is the co first author of the paper The partners include Professor Michael B McElroy of Harvard University, Chris P Nielsen, executive director of Harvard China project, associate professor Bu Maoliang of Nanjing University and sun Yaoguang, Liu Yifan and Zhu Ge, master's degree students This work is supported by national key R & D plan, natural science foundation, excellent talents fund and youth innovation promotion association of Institute of geographical resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Harvard University Global Research Institute, and overseas research program for excellent young and middle-aged teachers of Nanjing University.