Weak fundamentals The Shanghai rubber market is still weak

Night trading: RU1905 contract opening price 11150 yuan / ton, the highest price 11205 yuan / ton, the lowest price 11080 yuan / ton, the closing price 11130 yuan / ton; Down 20 yuan / ton, down 0.
18%.

Domestic sales area market quotation: Shanghai market, Yunnan 17 years full latex quotation 10200/10300 (-300/-200) yuan / ton; Shandong market, Yunnan 17-year full latex quotation 10200 (-300) yuan / ton; Hengshui market, Yunnan 17-year whole milk tax quotation 10500 (-350) yuan / ton, Yunnan market, 17 years full latex quotation 10300 (0) yuan / ton
.

The warehouse receipts of natural rubber futures in the previous period increased by 3710 tons
compared with yesterday.
The warehouse receipt of natural rubber futures in the previous period was reported at 292780 tons
.
Among them, Shanghai increased by 1650 tons, Yunnan increased by 1100 tons, Shandong decreased by 110 tons, Tianjin decreased by 30 tons, and Hainan increased by 1100 tons
.

The Shanghai rubber RU1905 contract fluctuated in a narrow range on Tuesday, and fell back in overnight trading
.
From the 60-minute candlestick chart, the K-line returned below the 40-day moving average, and the technical indicator MACD green bar continued; On the daily chart, the K line oscillates near the 5th and 10-day daily moving averages, and the technical indicator MACD red column continues
.
Trading volume decreased, positions increased, and the technical picture was weak
.
The top 20 members held positions, long orders 55597 (+2654), short orders 85615 (+4778), net short 30018 lots
.

【Viewpoint and operation suggestions】

1.
Following yesterday's sharp rise in the RMB exchange rate, onshore and offshore RMB continued to rise against the US dollar today, as of press time (19:54 on December 4), the offshore RMB rose above the 6.
83 mark against the US dollar, recovering five passes in succession, rising nearly 500 points
within the day.
The onshore yuan rose 500 points to 6.
8355
against the dollar.

In the morning, the central bank announced that the central price of the renminbi against the US dollar rose 492 points from the previous day to 6.
8939, ending a two-game losing streak, and the central price appreciated to the highest since September 28, 2018, the largest
increase since June 1, 2017.

China Securities News believes that the recent external risk factors have shown signs of ebbing, and the alarm that the RMB exchange rate fell below the 7 yuan mark during the year has basically been lifted
.

2.
[U.
S.
stocks tumbled overnight, the Dow plunged 800 points] In overnight U.
S.
stocks, the S&P 500 index closed down 90.
30 points, or 3.
24%, at 2700.
07 points
.
The Dow closed down 799.
36 points, or 3.
10%, at 25,027.
07
.
The Nasdaq closed down 283.
09 points, or 3.
80%, at 7,158.
43
.

As of the close of the night session, the mixed spot of premium water was 845-995 yuan / ton
.
Exchange inventories began to rise
again after a sharp decline in warehouse receipts.
Poor terminal demand forms an industry consensus, and the fundamentals have not changed much
.
Affected by the Sino-US trade dispute, the decline in tires exported to the United States was obvious
.
Raw material prices recovered slightly, and Thailand said it would reduce the total area planted and increase domestic consumption, and planned to pave rubber roads
for 80,000 villages.
At present, there is little reaction to the policies of various countries
.
Near the end of the year, index rubber has arrived one after another, the supply has increased, and the supply and demand structure is difficult to change
.
As of October, Vietnam's exports of natural rubber to China ranked first with 793,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 16.
4%.

It is expected that domestic rubber imports will continue to increase this
year.
Affected by macroeconomic downward pressure, peripheral events and the deepening of supply-demand contradictions, we expect that the upside of Shanghai rubber will not be much under the reduced pressure of warehouse receipts, and the main contract will switch to 1905
.
U.
S.
stocks tumbled overnight, as of the close of December 4, local time, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 799.
36 points, or 3.
1%, at 25027.
07 points; the S&P 500 index closed down 90.
31 points, or 3.
24%, at 2700.
06 points, and it is expected that the Shanghai rubber will be
dominated by weak sorting during the day.